Sunday August 13 2023 Forecast (8:24AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

A cold front will slide off the coast by midday today. This front will produce additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms east of I-95 in general, mainly southeastern MA. Behind this front, drier air will work in, but there’s just enough instability left behind the front that the “mostly fair” weather cumulus clouds that pop up can grow adequately to produce a few showers here and there as the afternoon goes on, even as late as sunset. However, the coverage of that activity will be very low – not enough to worry about scrapping outdoor plans, but just enough to keep an eye on the radar “just in case”. Tonight, cooler, dry air moves in and you’ll notice it if you’re outside or have the windows open. While clouds thwarted many folks’ view of the peak night of Perseid meteors late last night / early this morning, tonight, while there will be a lower meteor count, viewing conditions will improve if you want to catch the end stage of the show. Again, best time to see them is after midnight, facing N & NE, away from light pollution. Monday will be a nice mid August day with a sun/cloud mix and low humidity. We’ll have diurnal cumulus clouds pop up in response to solar heating and cool air aloft, and also some higher clouds will start to move in during the afternoon ahead of the next approaching low pressure area. As the small high pressure area that gives us our nice Monday moves away, low pressure will head for northern New England via the Great Lakes, and its warm front will bring heavier clouds and a round of showers late Monday night / early Tuesday. Some heavier thunderstorms may occur toward the South Coast with this where it will be more unstable with more moisture available. Tuesday during the day we should spend some time in the warm sector behind a warm front and ahead of a cold front, but it looks like clouds will be dominant so I’m not expecting full destabilization of the atmosphere enough to cook up big thunderstorms. It looks like a more general shower set-up with embedded heavier downpours and storms possible. It’s also possible that the frontal boundary doesn’t make all that much progress northward and a wave of low pressure forming along it then pulls it back to the south. This set-up would result in my forecast temperatures below being too high. Based on that, keep in mind that if this looks like a more likely scenario for the next update, that temperature forecast may be noticeably lower than it is now. I’ll do a finer-tune on this outlook for tomorrow’s update. Shower activity may linger into Tuesday evening as the trough will be sluggish to depart. Wednesday, we’re back into drier air with a sun/cloud mix, and right now I think any pop up showers will stay north of the WHW forecast area. Thursday should start sunny but may end with clouds as the next disturbance approaches from the west, but not a bad day either. And we continue to keep heat generally at bay. You’ll see no 90+ in this forecast.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorm morning and midday, favoring areas east of I-95 and south of I-90, diminishing from west to east. Slight chance of isolated showers during the afternoon and evening. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Heavier showers and some thunder possible, especially near South Coast. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Medium range model disagreement always makes forecasting this period with the help of guidance “fun”. Right now I’m leaning toward a faster flow pattern with a shower / thunderstorm chance the first half of August 18 followed by a drying trend, fair weather much of the August 19-20 weekend but possibly ending unsettled with the next disturbance moving in, then fair weather returning again to end the period. Some guidance wants to bring heat in while other guidance says Canadian air will be more dominant. Splitting the difference for now with a forecast of near to slightly above normal temperatures but the opportunity for brief heat shot later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures for late August.

64 thoughts on “Sunday August 13 2023 Forecast (8:24AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Maui death toll = 93 (and climbing?) 🙁

    It is the deadliest U.S. wildfire in 100 years.

    1. It’s somewhat similar to the complacency syndrome. If you have something that is an infrequence occurrence in a particular zone, you have people who have never seen it (because a human lifetime is short in comparison). Therefore, with enough of this, the region is highly unprepared and doesn’t know what to do.

      New England is similar regarding a CAT 3 hurricane. We’ve made “preps”, but we’re not even close to ready for what’s going to take place when we get hit by one. And we will get hit by one. It will dwarf anything we’ve seen in recent decades.

      1. I’d agree. It is part greed and part climate change denial. This area as I think everyone knows is seeing the largest increase in higher tides. Raising waterfront homes on ten foot pilings just isn’t going to do it.

        But then I think of Humarock that managed to withstand the hurricanes of the 50s. Before that, the Portland gale of 1898, the peninsula was permanently separated from Scituate and eventually was reconnected to land at Rexhame. The first home there still stands in its original form between the ocean and river. The one we rented for years was a block or two down and ended up in the river during the perfect storm. It was rebuilt

        A good part of the increase in damage cost is that most every home that was a small beach cottage is now a ridiculously huge McMansion. That holds true up and down the coast.

        In Charleston, the houses damaged during Hugo that govt folks promised would not be replaced are not only replaced but they have houses in front of them. All ridiculously huge

        I don’t have a clue about Maui. I’d love to hear from some who do. It is a heart wrenching situation.

        1. Yes absolutely.

          I do need to learn a bit more about the history of fires in Hawaii. Only heard it mentioned by colleagues before more than doing my own research. That was one area that I didn’t really forecast in my career outside of the few times they were threatened by tropical cyclones or anomalous patterns during the winter, regarding shipping in the area.

    1. A CAT 3 (like 1938) would have impact far greater than 1938 if it hit today, just due to the fact that we’ve manipulated and over-developed our coastline and coastal plain.

      Moral: Put more blocks up for nature to knock down, and she’ll knock down more blocks.

      We don’t tend to think of these things before we play with our toys.

      1. Good moral. And I sure remember my mom’s stories of 1938. Or is having to find someone to take us from the house we were renting in 1954. Scary to think it will be worse

    1. That’s pretty intense.
      Didn’t TK mention that the GFS has a tendency to produce
      fantacanes? is in fantasy hurricanes. 🙂

      2. Yes, the upgrade fixed nothing. If anything it broke stuff.

        Fake-i-canes.
        Fantasycanes.
        Dream-i-canes.
        How’s-that-even-possible-canes.

        All still there.

      1. 2 weeks …..

        I’m kind of ready to get going.

        And yet, 4 weeks in, I’ll be wishing we had a week off.

        I can’t explain that, lol ……

        1. I completely understand! The beginning is tiring- new names to learn, course prep is more intense, no rapport with students yet, plus my own kids starting their year with accompanying nerves, tryouts for various things, supplies to be purchased, not knowing what to expect for each class yet…. August/September is exhausting 🙂

          1. But, I got to watch the meteor shower out here last night with few clouds, so I’ll skip it tonight and hopefully get a good night sleep to start off…

            1. Too many clouds in my area last night for peak night, so I’ll settle for some leftovers tonight. Should be pretty clear by then. 🙂

  11. It looks to me as if the actual cold front is out by Albany and is igniting some convection.

    Does it translate into our area later this PM?

  12. Music theory: Counting Crows, “Mr. Jones”.
    Adam Duritz sings of sitting at a bar having a conversation with Mr. Jones about wanting to be somebody and afraid of being nobody. I think that Mr. Jones is in fact, Adam. Maybe his reflection in a glass, a beer bottle, or a mirrored beer sign or wall behind the bartender.

    Read the lyrics a few times. Then change my mind. 🙂

    I saw Counting Crows play live a few years ago. It was a great show. Adam talks alot, but his reputation is a story teller, both with song introductions and the songs themselves. I liked it. Ironically, they left “Mr. Jones” out of the setlist. 😉

  14. I made a slight edit to my discussion regarding Tuesday. I’ve been keeping an eye on the trends in the short-med range guidance and I’m not so sure how far north the warm front gets Monday night & Tuesday, and there are some hints a wave of low pressure may exist sooner and further east on the boundary, keeping it south or pulling it south quickly if it gets north. That could change many “70s” to “60s” for temps on Tuesday if that’s the case. Stay tuned…

  15. NWS discussion for today, Excepert

    Thus a potential for at
    least isolated t-storms along the front moving in between 2 to
    8 PM. The dry air aloft is a significant limitation to deeper
    convection and may stunt how deep storms may get, and the
    coverage of them, but given the kinematic/shear profile (a
    straight hodograph), a few storms may become strong to severe if
    storms indeed can materialize/fight through the drier air
    aloft. What may transpire in a worst case is that storms
    increase in intensity as they move into the higher progged-
    instability air later this afternoon across the North Shore,
    Metrowest/Greater Boston on southward into RI and SE MA. Did
    include a mention of isolated t-storms with gusty winds and
    small hail during the 18-23z timeframe. Will continue to monitor
    trends but thinking t-storm coverage may not be any worse than
    isolated.

    Some convection firing now out by Springfield and Deerfield.

    We’ll see what makes it to Eastern MA.

    83 here here with dp 72.

    1. Latest SPC discussion from a few minutes ago:

      …Central/Eastern New England…
      Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
      during the midday hours over western/central New England, along/
      ahead of the surface cold front. The front, and slightly precursory
      field of large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough, should
      impinge on a destabilizing boundary layer with minimal MLCINH, and
      enough moisture to contribute to peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the
      1500-2000 J/kg range. Deep-layer flow will be nearly unidirectional
      in/above the warm sector, with weak near-surface winds yielding
      small hodographs. Still, mid/upper-level flow will be strong enough
      ahead of the trough to yield effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-
      35-kt range, supporting some organized multicells, and sporadic
      isolated pulse-severe potential in the form of marginal hail and/or
      gusts.

  17. Julie, so sorry your district (wherever it is) starts school so early. Why this push to start schools in August is beyond me. All I can say is best of luck to the new school year! 🙂

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Still too warm for me. Also much too humid. The latter has been a killer this summer, in my opinion. Went to yesterday’s game and just sweat like crazy, also on my walk to Fenway. And it wasn’t that humid. But my body can’t tolerate it. My brother, who is a doctor, was at the game with me and noticed the sweat and reiterated what another doctor sibling of mine said: Heat and humidity intolerance. Body can’t handle it. Tries to, but in vain.

    Both heat and humidity will still be around for the next 4 weeks.

    2. Heat’s certainly been lacking.
      Humidity hasn’t. But it’s not busting records either. It’s just a humid, mild summer.

  19. TK, Counting Crows are great. Saw them live. Duritz is a poet. Melancholic, to be sure. But hey sometimes that’s the reality of life. His reflective lyrics cause me to think. They’re far from being sappy. I know I’ve posted this link before and it’s sort of weather-related: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Bxohwsx14Q

          1. It’s here now and pouring but only one clap of thunder. Worst of lightning seems to be Mansfield to Bridgewater. Coming your way Captain.

  25. My son just sent me a photo from our western Taunton home. Sun is out. Very dark over Norton and Easton.

  28. Philip, regarding the NOAA / NHC hurricane update.
    I don’t agree with them. Knock a few to several storms off that prediction then we’re talking. And now comes a series of dust plumes to further diminish the ability for storms to get going. I think we may make it to the last 10 days of August before we even have a shot of seeing the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin, and there is not a whole lot beyond that in the longer range that I see screaming at me to have any notion whatsoever of upping the storm #’s. But they have a right to their opinion. 😉

    If they serve me crow at season’s end, I’ll eat it. But I don’t think it’ll be on the menu.

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