Monday August 14 2023 Forecast (7:04AM)

80 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A small area of high pressure brings drier air in today, but a lot of mid level moisture in place will mean the sky won’t be sunny all day. We’ll have a fair amount of mid level cloudiness to deal with, but with breaks and thin spots to allow sun at times, especially north of I-90, before it thickens up again by day’s end. Low pressure approaching from the west is going to try to pull a warm front through the region tonight and Tuesday, but as trends have been south on this, and it still looks that way, the front may never get north of the I-90 belt, if it even makes it that far, before being pushed back to the south. An initial thrust of moisture will bring fairly widespread showers with some embedded downpours and possible thunder overnight into Tuesday morning, basically the first 8 to 10 hours of Tuesday, before a break. If the frontal boundary makes it onto the SNE landmass, areas along and south of it stand the chance of some heavier showers/storms with possible severe weather later Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves by. A boundary position further south would mitigate the severe weather chance and just mean showers for a while. Either way, this frontal boundary will then pull adequately southeastward to allow drying and the return of fair weather for Wednesday. A cool pool above will ignite diurnal clouds but I still feel any shower threat will remain north of our region. Current timing suggests that the next trough and frontal system arrives after a fair weather daytime Thursday, and swings through quickly enough that a shower and limited thunderstorm threat takes place for a 12 to 15 hour period from about midnight Thursday night / Friday morning to mid afternoon Friday. The earlier timing would lessen the chance of stronger storms Friday due to lack of adequate solar heating, but if this system is a couple to a few hours slower, that chance would go up, and last longer. This will be something to monitor as we move through the week. Something we won’t be needing to monitor this week: hot weather. Temperatures so far this month are running generally 1 to 3 F below normal, and this lack-of-heat portion of the pattern will continue.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog overnight, especially near the coast. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers and embedded thunderstorms possible in eastern areas early, then favoring areas south of I-90 later in the day. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60s. Wind SE-E up to 10 MPH except variable to S 5-15 MPH near the South Coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, favoring the South Coast region, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, especially overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

A low pressure trough will sit to the north of the region with a west northwest air flow out of Canada bringing dry weather and near seasonable temperatures for the August 19-20 weekend. The August 21-23 period will feature a little more of a battle between this drier northwesterly flow and an attempt by warmer, more humid air to push back in from the southwest, which can bring some unsettled weather if the boundary is nearby. Favoring a drier scenario over wetter as the northwest flow should win out.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Trends are for a more persistent west and northwest flow than previously indicated which may continue to limit or even eliminate a hot weather threat and keep it on the drier side with just brief shower chances.

80 thoughts on “Monday August 14 2023 Forecast (7:04AM)”

      1. Agree. They were awesome. We were out in West wood and could see the big storm to the South and driving home we
        could see the 2 storms that pass North of my area. Wonderful towering cumulus!!

        A couple juicy storms yesterday, but I was stuck in the middle with NOTHING to show for it. 🙂

        Missed part of one by about a mile or so. 🙂

        1. Nice.

          I think we missed up there by more than 10 miles.

          It was quite warm and humid yesterday.

          I’ve already been out this morning and it feels much better.

  8. Latest from the SPC for tomorrow

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

    SREF Significant tornado ingredients

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

    If that low moves farther South, then the tornado parameters
    move South with it. Bottom line, all of the above “May” be too far North.

    Waiting on the 12Z runs for the latest changes.

  9. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023081400&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023081400&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    In my opinion, the jet stream has been a hot mess this summer. Suppressed forcing a 500 mb ridge further south along the southern most US

    Well, there’s some agreement of a very impressive 500 mb ridge by both the GFS and Euro. 600 dam ridge at 500 mb is no laughing matter.

    The northeast, as TK alludes to in his longer range, would be protected by northwest flow aloft from major heat advancing in.

    But the central us, north of Texas, following multiple severe weather threats/occurrences may bake for the first time all summer.

  10. Thanks TK
    Quick peak at the latest SREF for 18z (2pm) Tues it is showing the number 15 which is an elevated tornado risk for areas of northern CT northern RI and the Worcester area.

      1. On that model, we don’t see the 15 contour around here very often. Many times with just the 5 contour, we see tornadoes.

        If that low moves farther South, this area will as well. 🙂

    2. It’s an interesting setup.

      2 times to be watched.

      Initially a sfc low and the location of the warm front.

      But, midday and later Tuesday, the upper feature is still lagging to the west.

      I think the initial sfc low and it’s lagging low clouds and brief onshore flow behind it, preventing warming in the boundary layer might be crucial in preventing thunderstorm development in an otherwise unstable atmosphere Tuesday afternoon.

      1. Why would there be onshore flow following passage of a low?
        Wouldn’t it be more of a North Westerly flow after passage?

        Anxiously awaiting 12Z runs.

      2. But if any areas in the southern third of New England get some sun late Tuesday morning into the early/mid afternoon, well, that might be problematic.

  12. SREF for the last few runs has been highlighting some sort of tornado risk for SNE. It is on to something or out to lunch

  15. Thanks, TK.

    It hasn’t been a hot summer around here, but it has been humid. Some parts of the country have seen rather continuous heat and humidity, of the kind described so well by the author Angela Carter in a short story of hers. Though the story is about a murder its opening scene describes August heat and humidity in states like Virginia very well.

    Early in the morning of the fourth of August, 1892.

    Hot, hot, hot … very early in the morning, before the factory whistle, but, even at this hour, everything shimmers and quivers under the attack of the white, furious sun already high in the still air.

    Its inhabitants have never come to terms with these hot, humid summers – for it is the humidity more than the heat that makes them intolerable; the weather clings like a low fever you cannot shake off. The Indians who lived here first had the sense to take off their buckskins when hot weather came and sit up to their necks in ponds; not so the descendants of the industrious, self-mortifying saints who imported the Protestant ethic wholesale into a country intended for the siesta and are proud, proud! of flying in the face of nature. In most latitudes with summers like these, everything slows down, then. You stay all day in penumbra behind drawn blinds and closed shutters; you wear clothes loose enough to make your own breeze to cool yourself when you infrequently move. But the ultimate decade of the last century finds us at the high point of hard work, here; all will soon be bustle, men will go out into the furnace of the morning well wrapped up in flannel underclothes, linen shirts, vests and coats and trousers of sturdy woollen cloth, and they garrotte themselves with neckties, too, they think it is so virtuous to be uncomfortable.

    And today it is the middle of a heat-wave; so early in the morning and the mercury has touched the middle eighties, already, and shows no sign of slowing down its headlong ascent.

  19. Northeast flow is a good thing as that a stable environment. Stable environment is kryptonite for thunderstorms.

  20. 12Z NAM takes low pretty far South

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023081412&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    HRRR not as far

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023081412&fh=25&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    HRRR supercell

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=scp&rh=2023081412&fh=25&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    HRRR significant tornado Parameter

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2023081412&fh=25&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    So, it LOOKS like any significant severe threat remains
    well to our South

    1. I hope so. But then I already again rescheduled an appointment that seems to want to call on every day we have possible threats. I just don’t wasn’t to be driving

  24. I do wish we could get better consistency on where the heaviest rain band will be tomorrow morning.

    It may not be the 4-7 inches we saw last Tuesday in some areas, but 1-3 inches possibly timed on the morning commute could cause issues.

    1. I assume if the low heads further south then the heaviest rains will as well. Is this true? My daughter has a southerly commute and I am hoping she can miss the worst of the storms. Thanks.

      1. I think that’s the general idea.

        In some crazy sense, this is like a cold season system.

        And sometimes, you can get a band of better than expected precip further north than sometimes modeled.

        But odds still favor further south to have heaviest rains and lighter as one heads further north.

      2. Good luck to your daughter and all commuters tomorrow morning. Hoping the heaviest ends up over the ocean.

        1. Thanks. I appreciate your knowledge, along with everyone else, helping me make sense of this summer’s weather.

  25. Possible interesting situation setting up in the medium range.

    Another tropical system progged to develop off the coast of Mexico.

    But ….. very anomolous pattern developing over the us, deep west coast trof, huge central US ridge and east coast trofiness.

    That west coast trof may direct that hurricane into the Baja of California and not necessarily the southern Baja.

    Stay tuned. I’d it was in the southwest us or even southernmost California, I’d be watching the trends on this for a possible onslaught of moisture into the region.

    2. Discussion

      …Southern New England into northern NJ…

      Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southern New
      England early Tuesday morning, near the eastern surface low and
      associated warm front. Buoyancy will be limited and much of the
      activity will likely be north of the warm front. Nevertheless,
      isolated surface-based storms near the warm front may persist long
      enough for some organization and modest destabilization with heating
      through the morning. Enlarged, favorably curved hodographs and
      enhanced low-level SRH in the vicinity of the front will support a
      low-end risk a tornado. Strong low-level shear also may support
      locally damaging gusts.

      1. That’ a big shitload of rain in a short period of time.
        IF this were to verify, we could have flooding issues again.

    1. Great Shot!

      That Prominence standing out in that photo sure looks familiar. Been there many times. I think someone on this block refers to it
      as WaWa.

      Wachusett (Algonquin for “great hill”) Mountain in Princeton, MA.

    2. It is Wachusett, isn’t it?

      I just check images of Mt. Monadnock. Not that. By process of elimination, has to be Wachusett Mt. 🙂

      1. Yes, that is Wachusett in the distance. (I gave this as a hint in my first post.)

        My question was if anyone could guess where I was when I took the photo. I would be VERY surprised if anyone could guess that. 😉

    4. I could give the hint that I’m on a peak with a name that starts with ‘W’, but that would be even more misleading.

      The truth is that I’m in the parking lot of the Lunenburg Walmart, known locally as “Walmart Mountain.” 🙂

  34. My son is headed for San Francisco tomorrow AM on a 7AM
    flight. He watched the channel 4 news at Noon and was told
    that there could be tornadoes tomorrow morning, mostly from the MA Pike South. It shook him up.

    You don’t want to know what i told him when I talked with him a while ago!@()@#*)(!*@#)(*!)(@*#()!*@#)(*!)@(#*)!@(#*)!@*(#*(

  35. From Ryan Hanrahan

    An interesting setup tomorrow morning with a warm front over Long Island. A few severe storms may form around daybreak with a risk for a tornado. The greatest threat will be from NYC to Cape Cod.

  36. Scandinavia is absolutely getting pummeled by rain and wind the last few weeks, and that will continue this week. A low crossing England looks to strengthen out over the North Sea and provide very heavy rain across parts of Norway and Sweden, along with windy conditions. For the UK itself after a rainy Monday a fairly quiet week – several summery like days for England – before yet another powerful Atlantic low traverses Ireland on Thursday and then Britain on Friday. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRgrDSqe4jY

  38. Looking at all the most recent run of the models, I do feel like there’s some hint at 2 solid areas of rain.

    The heavier one along the immediate south coast. That one I feel confident about.

    I feel like there is some signal for a second rain band, maybe with 0.5 – 1 inch potential in it that’s further north, with a gap of lower rain amounts in btwn the 2 bands.

    Don’t know if that 2nd rain band will come about. If it does, it could be anywhere from west to east across central mass or ……. southern VT, southern NH and southern ME.

    1. Kind of like in some snowstorms where you get big snows in a band with the best lift (dynamics) but there’s a sneaky 2nd snow band much further north with an area of convergence. And in btwn, there can be a lot less snow.

  39. Ryan Hanrahan tweet where he thinks a possible tornado will be

    Quite the CAPE gradient along the warm front tomorrow morning over Long Island Sound. With very strong low level wind shear there is the potential for a sunrise tornado in New York City, Long Island, and coastal Connecticut. We’re watching closely

    3. No surprise that since 88D and subsequent upgrades, the #’s have gone up. Another example of better detection.

  41. The 2007 tornado in NYC proper occurred in the morning hours.
    I don’t believe a tornado has ever touched down in Boston.

Comments are closed.