Tuesday August 15 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

A frontal boundary, trying to be a warm front, will instead become a quasi-stationary front as it makes a feeble attempt to move northward into our region today. It gets to about Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, Block Island and maybe touches a portion of the South Coast, otherwise stays to the south and even moves a bit further south by evening as an initial wave of low pressure goes by from west to east. A swath of widespread showers and some embedded downpours moved into the region overnight and will gradually taper off and exit during the course of this morning. Heavier thunderstorms have been located to the south and will pass mostly off shore, only clipping Nantucket for a while from early to mid morning. A general east to northeast flow will keep it on the cooler side, though it will be quite humid, and with temp / dew point readings nearly the same we’ll see areas of fog and drizzle around even as showers taper off and exit, under a sky that remains generally overcast throughout the afternoon into this evening. Another disturbance will kick off showers and a few heavier downpours and possible thunderstorms especially near the South Coast again tonight, lingering as long as the hours around dawn on Wednesday. Elsewhere, just spotty drizzle and possible sprinkles of very light rain occur. During the day Wednesday, the final disturbance exits, and there will be a slow arrival of drier air, but with the air flow still from the northeast for a good part of the day, the clearing process may be a sluggish one, so I’m only expecting partial sun as the shower chance becomes confined mainly to the higher terrain of southwestern NH and north central MA with a help of a bit more solar heating there. Any of these that pop up are gone by evening and we have a fairly tranquil night with broken to scattered clouds but patchy ground fog forming under light wind conditions and a small temp / dew point spread. On Thursday, our wind flow will shift to southerly ahead of the next approaching trough, and a cloud / sun mix will give way to more clouds eventually, along with increasing shower opportunities due to a combination of an approaching trough from the west and more humid southerly air flow. This is most prominent Thursday night into part of Friday, until a cold front sweeps through from west to east during the day. Any sun on Friday can help enhance the shower activity with some thunder possible as well. Right now I don’t think we’ll see any severe storms. Timing of the front should allow a drying process to begin during the afternoon, first to the west (southwestern NH and central MA), lastly in southeastern areas (Cape Cod). Expect fair weather Saturday with lower dew point air, but still seasonably warm. Pop up showers in response to a trough of low pressure across northern New England should remain north of the WHW forecast area, so overall it looks like a nice beginning to the weekend at this point.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers until mid morning, tapering to sprinkles and patchy drizzle with areas of fog late morning on. Highs 67-74. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated to scattered showers, except a couple periods of more widespread showers / downpours and possible thunder near the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew point in 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Early morning showers possible Cape Cod / Islands. An isolated shower may pop up southwestern NH and north central MA midday or afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling slowly toward 60. Wind NE to briefly N up to 10 MPH then variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds, with clouds becoming dominant later. Passing rain showers possible by late-day / evening. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, especially overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Fair weather holds for August 20. The August 21-24 time frame will find the region in a minor battle between Canadian dry air and a northwest flow and attempted pushes of warmer, more humid air in from the southwest. This may result in a couple of unsettled episodes interspersed with fair weather, and temperatures that are variable, but not that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Trends remain for a more persistent west and northwest flow than previously indicated which may continue to limit or even eliminate a hot weather threat and keep it on the drier side with just brief shower chances.

66 thoughts on “Tuesday August 15 2023 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. TK, thank you.

    I like rain but we need a longer duration dry stretch. Not sure when that arrives.

  2. A couple of “disturbances” coming off African coast. Can’t imagine they’ll amount to much.

  5. Thanks TK.

    With the storm track passing just to our south lately imagine if this was mid-winter. JR hinted on air one day recently that the general pattern “could” continue into next winter. He mentioned that summer storm tracks sometimes can continue into consecutive seasons.

    We would certainly be enjoying a snow event today. 🙂

  7. I don’t know about anyone else, but I for one was NOT impressed with the rain this morning. Sure, it rained, but no big deal, which at this point is a good thing. 🙂

    My son got to his 7AM flight at Logan without issue and the plane was on time and he is now well on his way to San Francisco. Just North of Lake Erie at this time. 🙂

      1. Thank you Tom. I don’t think I have ever seen my son so excited!! He needed this well deserved vacation. 🙂

    2. It wasn’t really supposed to be a big deal.
      Pretty much right as was expected.

      I did see plenty of media hype making it sound like a nightmare morning commute because of the rain.

      We don’t need rain to make that commute nightmare right now. It already is on the dry sunny day. 😉

      1. I did see plenty of media hype making it sound like a nightmare morning commute because of the rain.

        EXACTLY!!!!

        What my son saw and heard on the NOON broadcast yesterday was IRRESPONSIBLE!! iMHO!!!

        I told my son when I talked to him that the person on air
        was FULL OF **** !!!!! and told him NOT to worry that it would be perfectly fine for his flight with only rain to contend with. Which as it turns out was all it was and not all that much either. 🙂

    3. Very excited for your son and extra happy his plane was off without issue. It is fun for you to also be able to track the flight.

  11. Picked up 0.60” of rain so far here in Sharon. This second batch was more significant than the first and I’m south of the Pike

  12. Thanks, TK.

    It’s been an active pattern pretty much all summer, so far. I can’t recall a stretch of 3 completely dry days in a row.

    JPD, glad your son was able to take off this morning without a hitch,

  13. Re tornados and being able to identify the potential better, I was chatting with a favorite local met (not Petey) who pointed out the radar upgrade to Dual-Pol in early 2010s was a massive change. Much more can be seen which gives Mets the ability to identify potential and warn. It could lead to more false alarms but (IMO only here) erring on the side of caution is never a bad thing

    As far as NYC, I’m still surprised it has had that many tornadoes. My guess….and it is a guess….is it would be very difficult to have a tornado in a city with the highest population in the country without someone noticing it…if only after the fact.

  16. Who remembers this iconic commercial? I was 7. I liked singing the jingle, but my parents mostly didn’t allow Coca Cola in the house. Only on summer vacation on Cape Cod or during the Christmas vacation were we allowed our yearly rations of a few Cokes, each. In any case, Coke was kind of woke in its own way, as the ad shows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VM2eLhvsSM

    1. Not sure I remember this exact one, but I certainly remember
      a similar one.

      That’s back when Coke tasted good. Now it takes like chemical swill!!!! Someone at that company destroyed the delicious formula that was once coca cola!!!

    2. Thanks Joshua. I remember that commercial very well. I was 11. Looking back on it, that was probably the first or at least one of the first tv commercials with pure diversity in terms of race/ethnicity. Who knows if there were a few gays or lesbians in that mix as well?

      1. JPD, today’s Coke is still better than that crappy NEW COKE introduced back in the 80s…or was it the 70s???

        Whatever…that was Y-U-C-K!!!!

        1. I do agree that today’s Coke is probably not even close to the original formula. I still drink it though. 🙂

          1. Sorry Joshua that your parents rationed Coca Cola but probably saved you from more cavities though.

  18. In towns like Brewster and Orleans, when we were allowed to have a Coke it was in a glass bottle. That makes a difference, I think. Or maybe I’m just imagining things.

    When I worked for my Uncle at his hardware store in rural Pennsylvania in 1980 I remember the vending machine had glass bottles and a bottle opener. 30 cents for each bottle of Coke or birch beer (the latter was popular in rural PA, but not here). My Uncle had lots of rules, but he let me drink all the soda I wanted. This may be because he was addicted to rum and Coke.

  20. I remember that ad well and enjoyed singing along with it.

    The original coke from what I had heard and what I found may have had a form of cocaine as an ingredient. I do recall when I was pregnant at with my second had had some severe stomach issues, the OB/GYN has me her coke syrup from the pharmacist. That was 1983/84. It worked wonders settling stomachs. I don’t think they have it any longer. My grandkids rarely have soda and if they do it almost always is caffeine free. Our kids rarely had it also

    https://www.justthinktwice.gov/article/did-coca-cola-ever-contain-cocaine

  22. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/gth_full.png

    I’ll be honest, I don’t know if this map is derived simply from the models.

    I know there are other important things to look at for possible tropical activity.

    One is a map for 200 mb, I believe and it might tie into the MJO. Anyhow, it’s green where all the hurricanes have been in the western and central pacific and I can see that green predicted to travel over Central America and into the Atlantic from about august 20th thru mid September.

    So, I know there’s a ton of Sahara dust and possible shear from El Niño, but I think overall, the entire atmosphere may be becoming more favorable for development soon up thru mid September.

    1. On the link above, there are various keys below that describe what you see in each week’s projection.

        2. If I understand this, and it verified, a busy stretch possible third week of august thru mid September, then a calming down the 2nd half of September to then have a 2nd surge in early October ?????????

      2. I have another child heading to Charleston in a while. Do you think you could keep any tropical activity away please

        1. Well, the good news is those I believe give some idea of if the atmosphere is more or less conducive to development.

          It can be majorly busy and yet with the right jet stream, it can all be kept at or directed out to sea.

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