Wednesday August 16 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

This set-up mimics spring in some ways, with a frontal boundary stuck just to our south, and us on the cool side. Of course, it being August, it’s a “warm” cool and the humidity is more noticeable as a result. But once again, it’s not a combo of heat and humidity, which has been lacking this summer. Through August 15, Boston’s Logan Airport has recorded only 4 days of 90 degrees or higher, with the highest of the summer 91 so far. Inland, it’s a slightly different story, where there have been a few more 90+ days, but still not that many, and some of the seasonal highs are in the middle 90s, but these bouts have been sparse and brief. And there are no 90 degree days in sight right now either, at least through this 5-day period to start with. Today we remain locked on the cool side of the boundary with lots of clouds and a light onshore breeze. A disturbance passing by will trigger some showers mostly south of I-90 this morning, maybe an embedded thunderstorm close to Cape Cod. Slight drying this afternoon allows for breaks of sun, and maybe just enough solar heating to trigger a pop up shower over the hilly terrain of southwestern NH and/or central MA, but for the most part, most of the region will see a rain-free day with below normal temperatures and not much wind. Tonight, the clouds want to break, but enough low level moisture exists for an increase in stratus clouds and areas of fog to develop, so it could be variable enough that you could be driving along and see stars through the clouds and 1 mile later be enshrouded by a fog bank. An increasing southerly air flow on Thursday will help break up any fog and the lowest clouds, but there will still be a fair amount of clouds due to the high humidity at lower levels. At the same time, other clouds from an approaching trough will be moving in from the south and west, so any sun we do see on Thursday will be rather limited. An initial disturbance may incite a swath of showers in the South Coast / Cape Cod region during the afternoon before a ribbon of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moves into the region from west to east overnight into Friday. This will occur as the front that has been sitting to our south finally lifts through as a warm front. If there is a break with more sun between that area and one more with an approaching cold front Friday, one more broken to possibly solid line of showers and storms on Friday late morning to early afternoon can be more potent. I still think the frontal timing and speed is fast enough that we see a drying trend from west to east during the later hours of Friday, and most especially Friday evening and night. After this mess of clouds, humidity, and showers exits, we set up for a weekend of fair weather and low humidity. Saturday will be the breezier of the 2 days with a fresh west to northwest breeze and passing fair weather clouds, while Sunday likely features lighter wind and more sun.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Sun breaks rare but possible. Shower chance is highest south of I-90 with a possible t-storm for Cape Cod until late morning. Isolated showers southwestern NH / central MA later on. Patchy drizzle possible. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH, shifting to SE later.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Shower chance highest in the afternoon over southern RI and southeastern MA. Late-day showers may reach eastern CT and central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SE to S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling below 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

General pattern should feature a northwesterly upper level air flow with a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a trough of low pressure from eastern Canada to northern New England. This pattern keeps major heat out, but leaves the door open for passing disturbances and shower/storm chances, but not an overly wet set-up.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

No big changes to the 6-10 day pattern expected during this period either. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable. Brief shower chances.

70 thoughts on “Wednesday August 16 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK. I have a golf game scheduled on the Cape tomorrow afternoon. What are the rain chances? Also, how much rain is expected on Friday in metro west?

    1. Which course? I am curious. I have played many of them. Couldn’t say which one is my favorite and that includes a few of the private ones as well. Last one I played was Ocean Edge in Brewster.

      Hope you get out rain free and enjoy!!!

        1. I don’t recognize that name. Did it used to have another name?
          I just looked it up. Doesn’t look familiar to me.

          No matter, Looks like a great course to play.

          Have a great time and score well.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK,
    Even though it is cooler, the humidity is VERY noticeable!
    As I sit here typing, I am sweating bullets. I am SICK of this!
    Bring Autumn NOW!!!

  4. Thanks TK.

    It appears that we are now in the “dark” days of summer. Yesterday was dark all day, more like November than August and this morning is starting off to be the 2nd consecutive dark day.

  12. Whelp, Eric was close with his 66 66 66…

    Here it has been 68 68 68…. Since late evening.

    Went to 69 a minute ago

  13. The 12z short range models don’t identify supercell/tornado parameters for early Friday morning, but I’d still like to watch coming runs for that lifting warm front from the south coast.

    Plenty of oppressive dps near the front.

    Perhaps there’s not enough turning of the wind with height ? Still, there’s some light SE winds in the boundary later overlapped by SW winds above it.

  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023081612&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    It’s tough to trust the GFS out at 102 hrs or slightly more than 4 days …. So that’s the good news

    But, with a central US ridge and a closed low off the California coast, even though a hurricane is projected to be down the central Baja, the flow aloft is sending a lot of moisture well north into the southwest. In this scenario, Las Vegas, Nevada in general and interior California have a possible flash flood threat.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023081612&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023081612&fh=117&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      1. I agree. There is a positive to be found in all weather types. As you might remember …I love pajama days.

  19. The 12z euro seems to be following suit for the southwest US

    Take away the projected hurricane, it’s a monsoonal setup btwn the central us ridge and the offshore California upper low.

    Add in what a tropical system can add for moisture.

    If this stays the course, well, there should be whatever preparations can be made for flooding.

  20. While it’s gray and in the low 70s it still has an August feel. It’s very humid. It’s Sweatville outside. I shed a few pounds of sweat on every run. I’m not exaggerating. My clothes are really heavy with perspiration after I finish running 6 miles.

    We haven’t yet had a true break in the humidity. About 7-10 days ago perhaps, but I didn’t consider that a true August cool-down. Maybe in 3 to 4 weeks time.

    By the way, I can’t stop thinking about this awful tragedy in the White Mountain National Forest. I know the area where this death occurred very well. Been there many times. It’s one of my favorite places in the world. Perhaps there was more of a current than normal due to the heavy rains this summer? I don’t know. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2023/08/16/franconia-falls-waterfall-nh-mother-melissa-bagley-dies/?p1=hp_primary

  21. Maui wildfire death toll now at 100+ (and counting). 🙁

    Whenever I think of Maui I think back over the years when Pat Sajak announced that destination to the Prize Puzzle winners.

  22. CPC with solid below normal temps for New England 6-10 & 8-14. Bye-bye Cohen-cast of 20-25 90+ days for Logan. Now I’m just wondering if they will make it to 5 let alone beyond that…

    1. Same as his usual Winter Snow forecasts. Generally USELESS.
      One of these years when he predicts 50-60 inches, It might just happen. You know about that blind Squirrel. 🙂

    2. We’re not getting to 27 (90F) days, lol …. Ooops.

      Your projection of 5 is of course, on the mark.

  23. I think most people will be happy with that. Only 12 90 or higher days for BDL in CT. This could be the first summer in a while BDL will have below average for 90 degree days. Normal is 18.

  25. Thanks TK.

    Well, wouldn’t you know we have our big summer vacation trip planned next week to Cabo San Lucas and our flight from JFK Saturday is scheduled to arrive there at 12PM local time……right when Hurricane Hilary (potentially a CAT 2 or 3 by that time) is forecast to make its closest pass to the tip of Baja California….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=epac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2023081612&fh=78

    Of course the GFS is likely overdoing the strength of the storm but regardless the forecast right now for Cabo at that time is for showers and storms and winds up to 40 mph. I am thinking this flight isnt happening!

    4. Crossing my fingers. I am not concerned about a direct hit but as you know those outer feeder bands in these things can pack a punch with strong winds, thunderstorms and weak tornados.

    6. Hoping for the best. We have taken the gamble many times going to the Caribbean in early to mid August and haven’t had an issue but this year has been an active pacific year so far. Remember the error in the cone this many days out. That may be on your side! Hoping it takes a different path. California, etc. need to be on watch though for flooding.

      1. We have too. We have been doing our big vacation of the year in August for several years now to avoid softball tournament season which runs through late July. We’ll see if our luck runs out. It will be a pain if we have to reschedule our flights

        1. I don’t have Peacock and don’t intend to obtain it either.
          I presume Netflix will obtain Season 9 at some point.
          Hope so. Oh well.

          We’re almost done with season 2.

          1. Darn. Hopefully Netflix does. It was my favorite season. Sue Thomas is also on peacock. I got it for two months and cancelled.

  27. Two consecutive “dark” days of summer. November in August. 🙁

    Do we go for the trifecta tomorrow? Might as well. 😉

    1. We do not. We didn’t yesterday either. It was bright most of the day compared to the day before. It was only late in the day when shadow cast by middle clouds above the lower clouds made it darker again.

  28. We went from no mosquitoes at all to tons of mosquitoes and west Nile in northbridge which we back up to

    1. If I remember correctly, you prefaced your earlier report of low mosquito activity with something like “I don’t want to jinx it, but…” 🙂

  29. Eric said that we shouldn’t expect even a “warm wave” during the rest of August. He didn’t actually use that term, but he said not to expect a stretch of three days in the 80s.

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