Saturday August 19 2023 Forecast (8:44AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

After yet another active weather day yesterday which included high humidity, showers and thunderstorms, and a handful of tornadoes in southern New England, it’s time to take a deep breath and a break, and mother nature will provide that opportunity this weekend, and into next week, with much less action to talk about and track. We do have an upper level low pressure area situation just to our north that will have an impact on the weather today, however, but not in a major way. It’s part of a pattern that’s delivering a cooler, much drier air mass – a hint of early autumn especially if you were up early. Around the upper low are lots of high and mid level clouds, some of those trying to wheel into our region this morning, but also fighting dry air which limits the extent to which they can cover the sky. But the solar heating, combined with the cold pool of air aloft, will ignite diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus cloud development later this morning into this afternoon which can become quite extensive, limiting the sun that helped them develop. This, along with a cool breeze and low dew points, will make today feel unlike many of the muggy days we’ve experienced this summer – finally a chance to dry out! Sunday’s weather will be quite nice, still with low dew points for comfort, but warmer by 5 to 10 degrees over today’s high temps, with much more abundant sun as the upper low moves away and a weak high pressure ridge follows it. High pressure slips offshore Monday and a cold front approaches from southeastern Canada. This will be our one very warm and slightly humid day of the 5-day period. While high temps jump well into the 80s the dew point climbs back into the 60s, so you’ll feel that bit of mugginess back. The cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast during the evening and may trigger a shower or possibly a thunderstorm, but this is not looking like a widespread heavy rainfall event – just a quick hit for a few areas, then gone. A mild, dry air mass overspreads the region after that with the return of fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunniest eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT with clouds moving in at times elsewhere through mid morning, then lots of clouds popping up late morning into afternoon with limited sun, especially away from the coast. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57 except 58-65 urban centers. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

88 thoughts on “Saturday August 19 2023 Forecast (8:44AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    What a day yesterday!!

    Kudos to the SREF

    Over the years that model’s significant tornado ingredients display has been very good at identifying areas where tornadoes could and did occur

    1. Hard to believe 32 years. Mac spent his birthday climbing up a ladder too many times to count to empty water from a bucket in the attic.

    2. Hurricane Bob! We were supposed to take an overnight sailing cruise from Boston to Marblehead to celebrate an 80th birthday in the family. Needless to say, it got postponed a day, and it was fine. As a bonus, we weren’t affected by all the power outages until our return!

    1. Thank you for remembering Vicki! I will pass on your message.

      If I remember correctly, this is a special day for you as well. You are in my thoughts.

    2. That smells like another bout of possible tornadoes in our
      area. Of course, that is a long way out there, but something
      to keep an eye on, for sure. 🙂
      Surface winds SE, backing to due West at 500 mb.
      Lots of turning with height. Get some decent convection and watch out!

    1. No surprise at all.

      In fact there’s a bit of a misconception about the storm in general. The media, once again, has people thinking something like this never happens. Well, it does. It’s been a while. It’s an infrequent occurrence. The vast majority of these systems are moving mostly to the west when they are at this longitude. This one, because of the synoptics involved, is recurving much sooner. Hence ….. But because there is impact involved with an area not really known for being impacted when the storm still has a name, as opposed to remnant moisture that they get quite frequently, the event is looked at a little more dramatically than it needs to be. Not to say it’s not a fairly rare and boring event. Far from it. But I will continue to keep things in perspective ALWAYS. This will be no different.

      1. Oops. Typing the same time. While it is the first TS warning, I did find two instances of a hurricane /tropical cyclone in that area. I am guessing they didn’t do warnings that long ago??

      2. As a child growing up, I remember these systems being called a Mexican Hurricane. So I knew about these at a very young age. I believe there was a TV show OR Movie that I watched depicting a “Mexican Hurricane” moving into the LA area. Honest, no kidding.

        The major impact is going to be RAIN in areas that don’t get much rain. IN fact, over a year’s rainfall in one day! Think about the ramifications of that.

      3. Agreed, certainly happened before and will happen again and that’s not being reported well.

        What I’m more curious to know, but don’t feel like looking it up is …..

        In 1858 and 1939, was there also a severe fire season in Canada, we’re the ocean temps as warm as they are now, was arctic sea ice running this low, was Rome and southern Europe hitting 100+, was Florida as hot as it’s been this year, did anywhere in the northern hemisphere beat their record rainfall by 4 inches and accomplish that in 24 hrs vs 72 hrs on its previous record (Ft Lauderdale in March)

        The same stuff has always happened, I just wonder if more of it happens together in the same time period now then before.

        1. Probably not. That type of correlation would be exceedingly rare and probably coincidental, but not out of the realm of possibility it was part of a similar set of large scale indices and a long term stable aka little-changing pattern.

    2. I did some reading. And found two past instances in southern CA. What is TC vs Hurricane?

      1858 Oct 2 I think San Diego area hurricane what I’m reading would now be considered a cat 1
      1939 Tropical cyclone Long Beach

      1. 1939 was indeed the last time one made landfall (or reached CA) while style classified as tropical.

          1. I was actually going to search for something like this and you’ve done my work for me. 🙂

  15. Beautiful, comfortable air today.

    Windows open and AC off for first time since that comfortable stretch in early August.

    1. Indeed! I had to wait until outside temp topped 70 before opening the windows as the house
      was already sufficiently cool, if not too cool, NOT that I am complaining.

      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

        1. Thanks Tom. Very much welcomed. She could never know whether she was sick from the humidity or sick from something else. Frustrating.

    2. The conditions are really not great most anywhere for significant development in the Atlantic. And water temps mean nothing if you don’t have the support from other parameters.

  17. Thanks TK.

    The most MA tornadoes in a season = 12 (1958)

    I find it interesting that old timers over the years never mentioned these type of extreme weather events.

    MA tornadoes to date = 7 (2023)

    1. In ONLY remember the Worcester tornado of 1953 going way back. Any other tornado memories are much more recent. 🙂

    2. Because we live in a time where everything is hyped to the extreme. History is just history. We bring it up, but it doesn’t have to be harped upon. Now that’s all the media does. I think the old-timers are tired of it and don’t want to add to the circus. Don’t blame them. 😉

    3. This old timer remembers 1958. One one of the questionable days, we were at Humarock. What the weather report said exactly I have no clue, but I announced to anyone who’d listen that “he means there might be a tornado.” A few minutes later the met mentioned the possibility of tornadoes. Everyone looked at me in surprise. Frankly, I surprised myself. But I had heard the same discussion earlier so just remembered.

      My brother, my friend from Duxbury, and I spent the day positioned at dedicated windows and met in the center of the room periodically to report any “sightings” It’s a fun memory for me

  18. Hint of autumn today (as expected .. hehe). Almost makes me want a pumpkin spice iced coffee & an apple cider donut. 😉

    1. I was in Star Market the other day and in front was a display of LIMITED EDITION: PUMPKIN SPICE CHEERIOS.

      Get yours while you can JPD! 😉

      Y-U-C-K!!!

      1. They’ve had those for several years. They’re actually not bad at all. Definitely better than plain cheerios which are otherwise known as “cardboard-o’s”. 🙂

        1. I don’t understand why August has been designated the beginning of “pumpkin spice” flavor. As far as I know DD hasn’t reintroduced it yet. Maybe they at least will have the decency to wait until Labor Day, and even THAT is still too early for my taste. It should be no later than October 1st if it were up to me.

  19. It’s JP Porch Fest today and there is a performance in the driveway across the street from me. Holy CRAP!! PURE NOISE POLLUTION! I can’t Stand it. The singer can’t sing a lick. Totally off key! Just BRUTAL!!!!! ARGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHH!!!

    A keyboard player (Who is fine) and a PATHETIC so-called singer!!!

    and it is LOUD!!!!

      1. It has. just on different days, I believe.

        Wouldn’t mind if the person could sing!!
        But, OMG!!!!!!!

  21. Thoughts on Hilary…

    Weaker than projected at landfall.
    No longer tropical by the time it reaches California.
    Minimal tornadoes.
    Less rain than forecast, but still significant and dangerous flood potential..

    Thoughts on the Atlantic…

    Too many disturbances. I don’t think they all deserve “X’s”. But this shows you now matter how “disturbed” it is, you still need the right conditions. The furthest west one is probably a depression, but it’s not likely to last, so they may be shying away from doing anything with it.

    2. What about the disturbance farthest out with the “red” x? It has a >60% chance of development.

  22. Not too often you hear me say anything good about the GFS, but the last week or so it’s had a slightly better overall performance than the ECMWF on the large scale pattern. The ECMWF is back to over-amplifying things and moving them too slowly, and I think that’s the case with the late-week system. Looking at a more progressive set-up with unsettled threat later Thursday and especially Friday, similar to the GFS’s timing, while the Euro is slower and then has the system hanging around through the weekend. Not buying that more spring-looking solution.

  23. New porch fest is now performing.

    MUCH BETTER!! The singer at least can sing.
    Another 2 piece, guitar and drum. My ears aren’t hurting. 🙂

    1. Hi Vicki! As always, your care and compassion does not go unnoticed. Will definitely be keeping myself safe and will let you all know how we make out by the end of this…

  25. Thanks TK.

    Know I’ve been pretty quiet here lately, though did keep tabs on all the severe wx back home yesterday!

    I’ve been detailed on assignment this week to the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, ID. Super cool town. Lots going on in the wildfire world right now which is part of my absence here (though I’ll try to check in more!) I’m actually flying back today, earlier than scheduled, a preemptive “rescue” rearrangement of my travel.

    While I’d like to be optimistic, I expect that Hilary is going to be catastrophic for Southern California, and in some cases (desert environments) will likely fundamentally reshape the landscape in a way that humankind rarely sees. Not too worried about winds, but that’s not at all what this will be about. And it won’t matter tropical/non-tropical, weakening winds, whatever. This will easily be a 1 in 100, and probably 1 in 1000+, year event for some areas, the sort of thing where odds favor you go your whole life without seeing. Hilly places and burn scars that would flood in devastating fashion with 0.50” of quick rainfall will get 10 times that. It’s not comparable to the East in terms of what various rain amounts will do. I would say overall it’s roughly a 5x multiplier on impact, i.e., 5” rain here has the impact that 25” rain would have in the East, but obviously varies and can be much more. There’s no good outcome with this and I just hope people are doing what they can to stay safe.

    The one silver lining: big time relief for what’s become a very active wildfire period over northern portions of the West, as well as British Columbia.

    1. As you mention, there is a positive side too – a silver lining, as you say. Hoping that the biggest impact areas are limited. Some of those areas may be sparsely populated, but there are still far more people around than last time something like this happened there with a tropical / post-tropical system.

      I’m glad you pointed out the relative impact. A lot of people don’t realize that 5″ of rain in one geographical location is far more impactful than in others. It’s important to know that. There is relativity to be applied to all things like this especially if you’re viewing it from a different type of place and trying to gauge the impact.

      Thank you for checking in!

  27. According to the new weekend tv met AJ Waterman at Ch. 7, we will eventually be hearing from Hilary next weekend late Friday into most of Saturday with HEAVY RAIN. The storm is expected to track due northward once it makes landfall in southern CA straight into Canada then eastward eventually moving over the top southward into our area.

    I for one have never heard of such a track of a tropical system once it makes U.S. landfall eventually into New England. A remnant tropical system arriving here from the northwest (Great Lakes)????

    Is this going to be unprecedented if this verifies?

    Now I am curious if that 1939 CA system had a similar track and eventually came here with its remnants.

    TK, your thoughts on this possible scenario?

    1. It’s just a tad bit early to be forecasting heavy rain associated with a tropical system that’s off Baja. But there was one model that hinted at it, and it was one that I wrote about earlier as not being one I trust at the moment.

      Actually looking at the guidance, nothing really shows that, but no, it would not be unprecedented at all. We get Pacific remnants regularly, especially western Pacific (typhoon) remnants. Nothing that’s going on right now is unprecedented in the tropics. In fact, it’s been kind of quiet overall, world-wide. Even the Pacific has been pretty quiet when it normally gets active with El Nino onset.

  28. Dave, Unfortunately no, I am sitting here eating dinner at my house. We got halfway to NYC this morning and then get the email from Jet Blue that the flight had been cancelled. Flights from all the other airlines went out to Cabo unscathed today so this was a JetBlue thing more than the weather. I spent half the day trying to reschedule and rebook things (as well as get refunded from JetBlue) and am now flying out tomorrow AM on United for an exorbitant price. And we are going to lose a day of vacation. My opinion of JetBlue has plummeted after this ordeal. No alternate flights available, no live people to talk to, and took an hour in a chat box with someone just to get a refund. Terrible customer service!

    1. I should add that our friends flew Delta out of Boston and made it there no problem today. They said the weather was fine when they got there….breezy and mostly cloudy, not even raining. No problem landing.

      1. Oh Mark. I’m so sorry. Wonder if it has to do with union or not union not that it matters one bit. But it just makes no sense.

        1. Their email said it was based on weather and air traffic control issues that were out of their control. Yet Delta, American, United and Spirit had planes flying there all day with no cancellations. Agree, it makes no sense!

          1. My oldest said they stopped jet blue a while ago for just about the same reason. They try to stick to Delta. With Mac’s sister flying Delta for 20 years, we might be a bit biased tho

    2. So very sorry to hear. I was actually looking around at flights try to see what flight you may have had. I checked Boston, Hartford and NYC. Just curious, but wouldn’t Boston’s Logan be closer to you than either of the NYC airports?

      Now you’ll just have to pack more fun into less days and enjoy!!!!

      Btw, my son HATES Jet Blue. It used to be my go to airline, but I haven’t flown in a number of years.

      Good luck

      1. Thanks Dave. The flights out of Hartford and Boston when we were looking back in the spring were all more expensive and had layovers. The JetBlue flight out of JFK was $220 and a direct flight that got us there late am.

        Tomorrows flight is out of BDL on United and goes thru Chicago. Gets us there at 11:20am local time. I had good luck when we flew United to Big Sky in March so crossing my fingers!

  29. So, the middle of the 5 disturbances is now a TD, that will be gone by Monday morning. As I said…

    I don’t care how many disturbances there are in the Atlantic, the conditions are abysmal for development and anything to be sustained.

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