Tuesday August 22 2023 Forecast (7:10AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

The large scale pattern features a trough over eastern Canada and a large high pressure ridge over the central US, with our region in a northwesterly air flow between the two. This continues through midweek before pattern retrogression later this week backs the trough up into the US Northeast. What this means is that we’ll have a couple of pleasant and dry days today and tomorrow, then a turn to unsettled weather later Thursday through Friday. A nudge eastward of things again should bring improvement by the weekend, but it may be shaky improvement, not completely free of a shower chance on Saturday. There is no significant heat in the forecast. All of that will remain bottled up over the central US, and if anything will expand westward during the retrograding portion of the upcoming pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches again. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but may stay SE or E in areas mostly north of I-90.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers, especially in the morning. Highs 70-77. Dew point under 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

General northwesterly upper level air flow expected during the home stretch of August with surface high pressure in control much of the time. Watch for rough surf / large swells along the coast due to well-offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

A slightly less amplified pattern, still with the mean ridge in the central US and a trough in eastern Canada much of the time. For our region this is a zonal flow pattern with a couple disturbances bringing brief shower threats. Temperatures are variable but lean to the cooler side of normal.

65 thoughts on “Tuesday August 22 2023 Forecast (7:10AM)”

  10. It’s that time of year already….

    10:49 AM ADT Tuesday 22 August 2023
    Frost Advisory in effect for:

    Edmundston and Madawaska County
    Frost may damage some crops in frost-prone areas.

    Minimum temperatures: +2 to +6 (coolest in low lying areas).

    Locations: northwestern New Brunswick.

    Time span: early Wednesday morning.

    Remarks: Patchy frost is expected to form as clear skies and light winds coincide with cool temperatures, especially in low lying areas.

    Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.

    Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

    1. I’ve never seen a band perform at CBGB, but I visited
      that club one afternoon while in NYC. What a dive!!

      Very similar to the Rat in Boston.

      Back in the day, Blondie was great.

    2. “This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco
      This ain’t no fooling around
      This ain’t no Mudd Club, or CBGB
      I ain’t got time for that now”

      I first saw the Talking Heads at St Lawrence University in Canton, NY. It was 1978. Absolutely amazing!

    1. I remember forecasting a few of those in the 1990s during my agricultural weather days.

    2. I was reading about that while I waited for my eye exam. As is the case most everywhere, heatwaves are increasing in France also.

  15. Beautiful today.

    If we got this in July, I might say it’s a bit cool. But later into August and given this summer’s humidity, it’s wonderful.

    1. My girls said it was to cool today. See what I’m working with. No wonder I escape to here 🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

    1. I doubt there was any intensification. Maybe just some more organization, briefly. The two don’t always go hand in hand.

  17. Harold: Mostly gone.
    Gert: Gone.
    Emily: Remnants won’t re-fire, and if they do, harmless over water.
    Disturbance west of the Cape Verdes: Fish, but will struggle to develop.
    Franklin: Struggling. Rainmaker for Hispaniola, but not much else. Will try to reorganize south of Bermuda, but will struggle. Eventually will be a gusty storm out there, maybe up to a CAT 1 hurricane off the East Coast, close enough for surf impact.

    El Nino doing its thing on the hurricane season, as expected. As my colleague said, you can have all the warm water in the world, and it doesn’t mean a whole lot if the conditions are hostile. And they are. And they will continue to be.

    And what I consider to be VERY good news, as of 2 hours ago, the death toll from Hilary is ZERO.

      1. I still fear there may be casualties in remote locations, but I hope not. And yes, I totally agree with WxW.

        1. Thanks TK and Vicki. Like you said, still a little premature to declare a zero fatality event, but the signs are really optimistic. Combination of great prep work and some modest but meaningful shifts in the storms evolution (i.e., major storm but not quite worst case scenario) were hugely beneficial.

    1. It’s a great memory. In was in a gymnasium with no seating, just a sea of bouncing people. The stage was very bare with just bright white lights shining in from the two sides.

  19. I don’t know if there was a heatwave in 1987 in the South of France, the Côte d’Azur region (Menton and the Alpes Maritimes). But when we visited in early September it was still very warm. Probably mid 80s and away from the Mediterranean 90F. In the Netherlands that summer it had rained and been cool practically all the time. I don’t know if this year and 1987 are similes, as far as Europe is concerned. But perhaps they are, with a sharp divide in July and August between the Northwest and South/Southeast. Wet and (fairly) cool to the Northwest and dry and hot to the South and Southeast.

    1. France (and that part of Europe) can bake pretty intensely under the right set-up. And right now, it’s the right set-up. The pattern is blocked, and a 590+ dm high is right over them. That’s a hot pattern for them. Meanwhile, it’s anomalously cool in north central Africa.

      This pattern lasts a few more days, and then it starts to break down, and a full trough will invade western Europe the last week of this month into early September, with some really cool conditions.

  20. TK – Will El Niño be able to do “its thing” and bring us more snow this upcoming winter than last?

    2022-2023 = 12.4” (Logan)
    2023-2024 = ????????

    Frankly I never can tell the difference between Niño and Niña. I’ve seen good and bad years for snows in both.

    1. Well, El Nino winters are not necessarily snowy. They can work for or against bigger snow, largely because there are about 10 to 12 other large scale indices to consider. So ENSO is going to be a piece of the puzzla, but only one of many.

      Your last line is actually representative of what I mean – La Nina vs El Nino is not straight low snow vs high snow. There are huge snow years in both phases, and lame snow years in both phases.

      I won’t know much about how the indices are going to combine to impact the winter, at least from a long range forecast standpoint, until November. Nobody knows. This is why any winter forecast you see now is completely useless.

      It’s hard enough to make a long range forecast 1 month before the season, let alone nearly half a year before. The almanac forecasts are 100% unreliable garbage. I don’t care what method they claim to use. You can’t make a winter forecast in July. You’re leaving out 99% of the scientific method if you do, which renders it complete b.s. 🙂

  21. In Minneapolis right now temp is 98 with a heat index of 115. That’s incredible for this time of year

    1. It is indeed.

      Since 1873, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has hit 100 degrees in the month of August just seven times.

    2. Well it looks like they only broke their record by 1 degree (maybe 2 if it happened between hours). Old record 97 in 1971.

      I’d hesitate to call it incredible. 🙂 But that’s me. The dew point on the other hand. Upper 70s. Now that’s humid…

      1. Id definitely agree about incredible if it were a one off. But records are being set and broken worldwide over and over and over.

  22. We are fortunate here in New England not to be under that heat dome. It looks like there will be no 90 or higher temperatures here for August 2023. I for one am happy about that and I like having a little extra cash in my wallet saving on the electric bill this month.

    2. Mild winter saved us on heating. Cooler summer saved us on cooling. Tropical cyclone in southern Texas started to break a drought there without being too much of an issue. There are some good things going on in the weather too.

      As it turns out, despite the flooding rain from Hilary in the Southwest, there are regions where this rain is going to be highly helpful in reducing long term deficits. There’s even some positive out of that event.

      1. Hopefully the positives outweigh the negatives.

        With a minimum of 600/month for cooling months, I have to remind myself our heating is better than most perhaps it evens out

  23. Eris hit me. No, I’m not being punched by a woman. Rather, it’s yet another bout of Covid. I’ve now had 3 confirmed cases and a 4th that was very likely Covid (April 2020). I’m like a friggin’ magnet for this virus. I don’t venture out much. Certainly not in indoor spaces like bars or cafes. Oh well, I guess Eris just likes me, similar to Omicron, Kraken, and Wuhan. For those interested, I posted an article about the Eris wave and also a coming attraction named Pirola. And no, I did not include any anecdotes from my own experiences with SARS-CoV-2. I prefer that pieces like this not be personal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2023/08/22/latest-covid-wave-is-driven-by-eris-eg5-but-pirola-ba286-is-waiting-in-the-wings/?sh=12dd15d32d27

    2. Awww darn have been on a doff distracted and just read this. I am so sorry to hear this. Please feel better quickly.

      awfully worrisome that you are not going in places and yet have it. So frustrating for you.

      Is paxlovid an option for Eris?

  24. An interesting note on MSP’s 100+ degree temps for August.

    It’s only happened 7 times, as noted, the last time being 1988.

    What is incredible is that FOUR of them happened in 1947.

    Their all time August high: A searing 103 on August 15 1936.

  25. A little more information for statistics nerds about 100°+ weather in Minneapolis St Paul.

    They did not hit 100 today so they’re August tally remains at 7.

    In the month of June they have hit 100° or higher on 10 different occasions. This is a list. The 1931 event is an astounding heat wave. The 1930s were absolutely brutal for heat in the USA.

    June 7th 2011 103
    June 8th 1985 102
    June 13th 1956 100
    June 19th 1933 100
    June 20th 2022 101
    June 24th 1988 101
    June 27th 1934 104
    June 28th 1931 102
    June 29th 1931 102
    June 30th 1931 100

    Having hit 100° or higher 10 times in June and 7 times in August, I was kind of surprised when I noted that the July number was 47. Clearly a climatological heat spike during that month.

    Every single daily record high temperature is 100° or higher with the exception of July 25 and July 29th. I am not going to list all of them. But I will make this very interesting note. Seven of the record high temperatures in July were set in the year 1936, another brutally hot summer, especially in the central US. That was the same summer that MSP recorded their August all-time record of 103°, as noted above.

      1. Thanks!

        Irony: KARE was the station that featured the tornado live on the news in 1986 – the first widely seen helicopter tornado video.

  26. So, now that I have covered MSP and their history of 100° plus weather for meteorological summer, you may wonder, has MSP ever hit 100° in May or September?

    Twice in May, once in 2018 and their all time May record high temperature of 106° on May 31 1936.

    Once in September, with a high temperature of 104° on September 10th 1931.

    Oh look, 1931 and 1936 appear once again!

  27. And finally what’s the all time record high for MSP? 108 on July 14 .. you guessed it … 1936. 😉

    1. TK – thanks for that terrific data! I was living there in 2018 and had a marathon cancelled that weekend in Mankato in May when it hit 100! Talk about bad luck. I started my training in zero degree weather running on snow with ice cleats in January and then to get to May and the marathon gets cancelled because it hit 100 degrees.

      I remember June 2011 as well. We had to cancel my young boys 8 year old baseball game due to heat and the next day it was in the 60s

      As hot as Minneapolis was today i believe it stayed in low 60s all day in Duluth along Lake Superior – two hours north – a different type of “lake effect”

      Good stuff! Thanks for the discussion

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