Wednesday August 23 2023 Forecast (6:56AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

The big picture pattern continues to feature a low pressure trough in eastern Canada with another one set to drop in and take its place, but a little further west, as we head into late week, while a ridge of high pressure keep summer heat bottled up over the central US. For us, we get high pressure and pleasant weather today before the high slips offshore and the disturbance associated with the new trough approaches on Thursday, sending clouds our way. Thursday will still be a fairly nice day through as the wet weather threat will hold off likely until the nighttime hours. A warm front will try crossing the region overnight / Friday morning with showers and higher humidity. I’m not sure this front makes it all the way through, and while we wait for a wave of low pressure to move by, expect additional showers and possible thunderstorms at times into Friday evening. This will all push offshore by early Saturday, but we still have another disturbance to wait on passing by our region, so Saturday itself will still feature the chance of a few showers around the area. I’m optimistic the coverage won’t be widespread though, however I do expect a cooler than normal day. Sunday will also feature below normal temperatures, but with much more sun and absent of a shower threat as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches again. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but may stay SE or E in areas mostly north of I-90.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 55 or lower. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

General northwesterly upper level air flow expected during the home stretch of August with surface high pressure in control much of the time. Exception about mid period with a disturbance and shower threat possible. Watch for rough surf / large swells along the coast due to well-offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

General west to northwest upper air flow with high pressure ridge to the west and trough in eastern Canada, some day to day temperatures variability and a couple shower episodes possible heading through the Labor Day Weekend and just beyond. Much fine-tuning to come.

55 thoughts on “Wednesday August 23 2023 Forecast (6:56AM)”

  3. 90+ high temperature days at Logan Airport the last 5 years (average is 15).

    2019: 15
    2020: 14
    2021: 24*
    2022: 21
    2023 so far: 4 with none currently in sight

    *The thermometer at Logan was calibrated down (for the 2nd time) by 2 degrees due to a sensor that was off, but according to NWS, still within the acceptable error, which I don’t agree with. There were 6 instances of recorded highs of 90 or 91, so the correct number for 2021 is actually 18, not 24. If you are keeping statistics, you don’t allow a 2 degree error to be OK. It skews the information and it’s incorrect. That’s bad science, and I completely and strongly disagree with the government’s acceptance of this as a scientist myself. It’s not ok.

    There is some approximation allowed for in the scientific method. In weather, for example, snowfall measurement is going to need more of an allowance just due to the nature of it. Wet snow vs. dry snow, wind factors, etc. In temperature measurement, we HAVE the ability to be more accurate than 2 degrees error with properly calibrated and placed equipment. These are both doable, so that allowance is not needed.

      1. 100%. It happened twice. It was corrected twice. After the 2nd correct, it’s been fine.

        This type of sensor in the currently-used automated system has been known to go a degree or two off, most of the time to the high side. Manufacturing defect? Not sure. But it’s happened in multiple locations. There’s a similar issue with buoy temps ongoing. I’ll get more info on that. One of my colleagues is looking at that far more intently than I am.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Last night Pete’s 10 forecast featured ZERO days above 80.
    love that. now let’s see if it verifies

    Then we’ll be into Seotember

    1. Definitely not done with 80+, maybe even 90+, but for the next 10 days it’ll be hard to get out of the 70s. There may be a sneaky very warm day in there just ahead of a trough and frontal boundary though that “the models” don’t quite pick up yet. 🙂

      2. I honestly do NOT want to see another 90 degree day in my life and certainly NOT the rest of this season!!! 🙂 🙂

  6. Thanks TK.

    Get better soon Joshua. I thought we were truly done with Covid. I will likely get vaccinated along with my usual flu shot. Of course I’ll check with my PCP. I definitely will get them separately though, at least a week apart even though the tv ads say you can get them both at the same visit.

    Very surprising you caught it though considering you’re always outside running every day.

  7. Joshua,

    I missed your post from last night. So sorry to hear that you have Covid. You’re like my son, who has contracted the virus three (3) separate times.

    Feel better soon.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    And thanks for the well wishes from the WHW brotherhood.

    I’m doing okay. It’s the muscle aches (from my legs to my shoulders), constant low-grade headache, and sore throat that are most bothersome. But I’ve had it worse, including in April 2020 (when I couldn’t get tested but probably got it).

    It’s an unanswerable question: How did I get it 4 times in 3 plus years despite my relatively healthy lifestyle and not being in crowded indoor spaces much at all (and in 2020 through 2022 being mask-compliant? My guess is some people are more susceptible than others. Since childhood, I’ve always gotten comparatively minor contagious illnesses a lot, sometimes several every year. Begs the question, why? Has something to do with my immune system. Not that it’s bad (it’s not), but it’s not working optimally. I’m fine with it. There are far worse conditions to have. I’m blessed.

    1. I am lucky I did not get it during trips to the UK to see my daughter in 2021 or 2022, when getting it would have meant being sick but also not being able to return to the US. Of course, staying in the UK would have been nice but not when you have to quarantine.

    1. Thank you, JJ. What a great description. And I know the area was certainly not highly populated. With all of the damage described, though, it is amazing there were so few deaths.

  11. Thanks TK

    Feel better Joshua.

    I had an eye appointment yesterday. This office is in Hopkinton and is hands down the best ophthalmologist I’ve ever had. Masks are optional and no one was wearing them. I did because you are literally in each others faces. As soon as the dr noticed I was wearing a mask, she also wore one. Impressive doesn’t begin to describe.

    All of that said, has anyone had cataract surgery

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Feel better, Joshua. At the doctor’s office no one is masked, even the doctor, unless I ask her/him. 2 wks. ago I brought my husband to get a stress test. No one – drs. or patients wore them. But we did. The K95 masks. The following wk. I didn’t feel quite right and was running 98.8 at times. My temp. runs 97.8 – 98. On a hot day it might go to 98.5. I had no other symptoms at all except my face wouldn’t cool down. I couldn’t sleep and I was too nervous to eat. But I also have severe anxiety, so I don’t know. I didn’t take any medication to lower the temp. I wanted to make sure the medicine wouldn’t hide anything. I called my dr. and she said 98.6 is normal. But I was 98.8. But then it just went away. My husband’s stress test came out normal but we have many more medical appts. Anxiety never raised my temp., before, I don’t think. I am under a lot of stress in general but still – I got quite nervous.

    1. I believe (but not totally certain) that the Dana-Farber is the last holdout for requiring wearing masks in their facility. The Brigham has been done with them for awhile now. I imagine most others as well.

    2. Hi Rainshine. My normal is 97.4. My pcp has been adamant for a while that 98.6 is not the normal for many and should not be treated as such. I had an infection years ago that required hospitalization for a week and my temp never went above 99. When my temp goes up a few tenths, I keep an eye but know it typically means I have not had enough to drink or I am stressed or a combination. I am glad whatever it was went away.

  17. Rainshine, thanks for sharing your story. Anxiety can raise a person’s temperature, though on its own (without infection or some other cause) it should remain with the bounds of normal body temperature. And this can fluctuate with as much as a 2 degree differential between morning and late afternoon. The high temp can ~99.6F, especially in summer on warm and humid days.

    2. Joshua, there’s been tv ads now about RSV and the elderly especially. Is that a vaccine you recommend as well?

      If this keeps up, we’re all going to be pin cushions by the end of this year.

  19. Thanks TK and hope you feel better soon Joshua.

    It’s sunny and humid and heading for a high of 90 today in Cabo San Lucas. We had some cloud cover Sunday and Monday which muted the temperatures a little but looks sunny and hot the rest of the week. It’s a very dry and rugged landscape here in Baja California with lots of cactus trees and dried up sandy riverbeds that I assume fill up during the rainy season later in the year. I am surprised how tall the mountains are on this peninsula just to our north…a few are greater than 6500’ (taller than Mt Washington). Saw some dark clouds and showers break out over them in the afternoon yesterday and they quickly dissipated by sunset. This shot is looking towards the marina and downtown with the mountains in the background:

    https://i.postimg.cc/BbWhHDMQ/IMG-7127.jpg

    And looking in the other direction into the open Pacific..

    https://i.postimg.cc/g2d24Tn3/IMG-7126.jpg

      1. It is a beautiful spot and surprisingly there is virtually no one at the resort we are staying at. This is getting into off season for them with most kids in the US already back to school.

        Here is another shot of the Arch and Lands End. We took a short boat ride past the rock formations on Monday.

        https://i.postimg.cc/wBNghKpX/IMG-7010.jpg

    1. That one could happen. There is low pressure ate the surface and high pressure forecast to be in the southwest Caribbean, so something could develop and move north.

    2. It does. All the global models do. GFS was the worst, and is now tied for worst with the Canadian model. Euro is closely behind.

    1. Take his tweets with a grain of salt. He tweeted out last week that it was the hottest day ever in the USVI. When I provided the actual data including the link directly to the NWS website, he replied saying it was fake data, that I was slandering him, and he was going to sue me, then he blocked me. The Southeast Regional Climate Center then replied, showing a list of all the warmer temperatures ever recorded in the USVI (including both airports which are the official climate locations for the USVI), and he did the same to them. When you accuse the people charged with keeping the records of lying by providing the actual data and then block them, how far off the deep end are you?

    2. You may find this to actually be pretty good news for the holiday weekend looming… 🙂 (said with great optimism) 😉

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