Monday August 28 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

High pressure sits over the region this morning, but that doesn’t mean 100% blue sky. In fact, many areas are socked in with low clouds and fog with just a few areas seeing blue sky above to start the day. Eventually the stratus/fog will burn away, probably lastly over the Cape Cod area, and while this happens and sun starts to take over, it will end up filtered by a shield of high clouds advancing northward into the region as it streams west to east. More of these will take over, along with some mid level clouds as well, later in the day, limiting what sun we do end up with. Tonight, clouds thicken up ahead of a trough and frontal boundary, which is going to give us up to a few rounds of showers into midweek. Initially, a few showers/downpours may fire up in the higher elevations of southwestern New England later today and a few of these may survive enough to clip southwestern NH prior to or around sunset today, otherwise we’re looking at a band of showers and possible downpours advancing northward into the South Coast region during the late morning and midday hours of Tuesday, probably getting as far north and west as the I-95 belt in southeastern NH and the I-495 belt in northeastern to east central MA, while northwest of there any activity will be more limited. When the initial batch lifts away we can see one or two more batches of showers/downpours traverse the region from southwest to northeast between Tuesday evening and early Wednesday afternoon. Atmospheric conditions are not super-conducive to thunderstorms with these, but I cannot completely rule out an embedded storm or two in any batch of showers. Based on current expecting timing, this unsettled weather will pull offshore Wednesday afternoon as the trough and front swing through and exit the region, then drier air will arrive for Wednesday night through Thursday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. From there, the high will expand eastward with fair and dry weather expected Friday. Regarding the tropics, while active with 2 storms, the impact on our region will be limited to rough surf and large swells along the coast over the next several days, mainly from Hurricane Franklin, which will be quite strong as it makes a recurve track between the US East Coast and Bermuda – closer to Bermuda. Tropical Storm Idalia, forecast to become a hurricane as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to make landfall on the FL Panhandle at midweek then moves across the US Southeast Coast region and will not be a factor in our weather during this 5-day period.

TODAY: Areas of fog, some dense, and low clouds, gradually dissipating. Sunshine and high clouds, with sun becoming more limited late in the day. A few heavier clouds with an isolated shower or two possible southwestern NH and adjacent north central MA late afternoon and/or early evening. Highs 72-79. Dew point around 60. Wind calm, then S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely mainly midday on with a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, RI, eastern MA, and the NH Seacoast. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms until early afternoon, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s late. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Labor Day Weekend’s weather should be governed by a high pressure area over the region with fair weather and a warming trend, with a slow increase in humidity. One old, washing-out frontal boundary moving into the region about September 3 may trigger a couple showers and thunderstorms, but it looks like a pretty decent 3-day stretch of weather otherwise. Weather systems should remain weak and we’ll stay on the warmer and slightly humid side into the middle of next week with limited rain chances. For now, I expect the high pressure area over the region to shunt Idalia to our south, off the US Southeast and/or Mid Atlantic Coast, but any change in the track of that system over the next couple days can change the medium range results, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it just in case.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

The overall expectation is that we’ll be governed by a northeastward extension of what’s left of the hot high pressure ridge in the middle USA, so we’ll have limited rain chances and warmer than average temperatures here.

40 thoughts on “Monday August 28 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  11. So now we have 2 storms out there that are taking advantage of temporarily favorable conditions before less favorable conditions return as we near the peak of hurricane season.

    But there is some positive news regarding both of the storms.

    Franklin: A beast, but a beast that’s going to stay over open water for the rest of its life as a tropical cyclone. So this atmospheric heat engine does an efficient job at transferring heat poleward while not causing any major damage and being a minimal threat to life.

    Idalia: Destined to get pretty strong, but likely to make landfall in one of the least-densely populated sections of the FL coast. Obviously damage and inevitable, but major population areas will be spared the impacts of a direct hit from the core of the hurricane.

    Only Big Cypress Wildlife Reserve and Everglades National Park in southwestern FL are less densely populated.

    1. And then where does Idalia go? My bet is on flooding in Charleston.

      Do you see anything down the pipeline After these real?

      1. SE half of GA, central and eastern SC, southeastern 1/3 of NC are most prone to rain that can cause flooding issues. Don’t think major issues in ALL of these areas but these are the areas to watch for now.

        After this goes by, it’s rather quiet again for quite a while…

        1. Thank you and Awesome. Let’s keep it quiet. Areas in Charleston flood if you look at them crossways. There are a ton of houses around 10 ft above sea level.

  12. Franklin’s intensifcation has stopped and the storm is probably peaked. Cloud tops have warmed a bit. I think from here we start a gradual weakening trend. The low shear environment is about to be replaced by increasing northwesterly shear.

  13. The showers forecast to clip northwestern portions of the WHW forecast area late-afternoon / early evening are moving into that area now.

      1. One of the things I love is detecting humidity increase by scent. It’s the same idea as petrichor, or “the smell of rain”. 🙂

        Semi-random / semi-related. Another strong smell this time of year: sycamore. Those trees emit a very distinctive odor which might be a bit strong for some folks. For me, it’s a memory trigger of elementary school. There was a huge sycamore on the school property, and the smell of that tree was super-synonymous with the end of summer / start of school.

        1. I don’t have any sycamore trees near. There were some in Belmont cemetery which was across the street from one of the houses we lived in. My brother and dad and I would sit under them and open the nuts. Thanks for a memory I’d forgotten

          And I agree re the scent of increased humidity and also of fresh rain.

  15. FYI. I’m doing a bit better each day, which is good. Have more energy and can slowly jog again. But I am still quite congested (led to several bouts of vertigo today – it’s like a long duration sinus infection), coughing up a storm in the morning, and testing positive (line is getting fainter, which is good).

    I am very tired of people saying Covid is a routine cold. It is not. I’ve now had it 4 times. Only once was it like a standard cold. The other 3 times it took a long time to clear and drained the hell out of me, especially the first one I had in April 2020. I know that some people aren’t as affected, or even barely get symptomatic. I’m happy for them. But many otherwise healthy people can get pretty floored by the coronavirus.

    1. Glad you are improving. But darn it is taking its time. So sorry about that. Do you have any idea where you picked it up?

    1. Looks like the recon plane got 140 kts = 161 mph, so perhaps the 8pm advisory goes to 150 or 155 mph. I don’t know what winds transition to cat 5.

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