Tuesday August 29 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

76 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

A frontal boundary and trough in the area will produce unsettled weather today and Wednesday. Showers will hang out near the South Coast initially, then make a push northward in a couple waves later today through the first half of Wednesday before getting pushed to the east and offshore later Wednesday. After that, high pressure builds in Thursday to end August on a fair and nice note, and the high pressure area will continue to keep us fair and nice into the first couple of days of September including the start of the Labor Day Weekend. Meanwhile, watched for increased surf and swells along the coast due to Hurricane Franklin passing between the US East Coast and Bermuda (closer to Bermuda) the next couple days as it curves well out to sea. This, combined with the full super moon will create areas of coastal flooding, even without the storm close by.

TODAY: Heaviest clouds south and east, some sun north and west, eventually clouds advance back to the north. Showers near Cape Cod eventually moving northward into southeastern and eastern MA by evening. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms until mid afternoon, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s late. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure should continue to be in control through Labor Day Weekend although an old frontal boundary in the region on September 3 may create some clouds and just the slightest chance of an isolated shower as it stands now. A more humid set-up and slightly better shower chance comes later in the period. We’ll also have to watch moisture associated with Idalia to our south heading through the first week of September, in case it ends up getting pulled further north.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

The general idea is a west northwest flow here with limited rain and near to above normal temperatures.

76 thoughts on “Tuesday August 29 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  6. Thanks TK.

    Yesterday Eric hinted that 90+ temps could return in September. We would be on the edge of the high heat dome.

    6-10/8-14 day temperatures well above normal.

    1. Actually that dome is not really going to be much of a dome pretty soon. It’s going to kind of flatten out. It is that flattening that may put us closer to the warm to hot weather.

  7. One thing that strikes me about Idilia is its forward motion.

    Its flying for a tropical system in the Gulf in late August.

    If it was October, when the westerlies should be further south, I could understand that track speed.

    I don’t know if that quicker motion increases the surge threat, because on the right side where the wind is south, don’t you potentially add the wind speed to the forward motion speed ??

    1. I am not sure. Could go either way. Perhaps faster motion means less time for the water to build up and thus less to push inland.
      On the other hands maybe the faster forward motion pushing more water faster?

      I dunno

  12. We often discuss modeling and averaging out estimates (ensembles) as well as noting the various outliers that crop up. Of course this doesn’t just hold for meteorology.

    I put together a quite small (in terms of dollar value) stock portfolio of 10 companies several years ago. It’s my personal mutual fund, if you will. Since then, I’ve: 1. Never had a day in which ALL of my stocks went up in price, though the average has almost always tracked the overall market; 2. Never had a day in which ALL of my stocks went down in price, though again the average has almost always tracked the overall market.

    Don’t know if this is a good or bad sign. It suggests I’ve diversified, yes. Perhaps it also shows I have a couple of outliers in my portfolio. Nonetheless, it’s a bit odd that even on the very best days in the market, at least one of my stocks goes down. And on the very worst days, at least one of my stocks goes up.

  13. For any SCI_FI enthusiasts out there, you may want to give Apple TVs, INVASION a look.

    Season 2 just started last week, with next episode to start tomorrow.

    Here is a little excerpt

    The allure of Invasion lies in its masterful balance of intimacy and grandeur, although not all critics and viewers were immediately convinced. Some found the pacing of the alien invasion story to be too drawn out. However, others enjoyed the way the show tapped into the essence of the well-known alien invasion narrative but with a fresh twist, exploring the direct impact of such a cataclysmic event on the lives of individuals. For many viewers, the slow burn was precisely the point, as it allowed for a deeper exploration of the human experience amidst unprecedented circumstances. Now, with the second season all ready to hit our screens, fans of the series can rejoice as Apple TV+ gears up to deliver even more captivating episodes of Invasion, and as we eagerly await its arrival, here’s an overview of everything we know so far about the upcoming season.

    It starts a little slow, but as suggested above, it is all part of the plan.

    I have been glued to it and binged all episodes to date.

      1. Nope,

        Frankly it is wearing on me. Same theme every episode,
        Who is going to mess with whom and who back stabs whom.

        The car mock trial was ridiculous.

        Last episode was a little better when Luis found out about mike or thinks he found out. 🙂

  14. A friend has family flying into Ft Lauderdale today and out tomorrow. Any thoughts on whether they will get out without delay?

    1. I’m in Orlando. Flight was supposed to leave at 1:05 pm now delayed for 2 hours for ground delay at Logan? Is it foggy up there at all? Hoping to get out soon before air traffic starts binding up with storm moving north and outer bands move in.

  20. Representative Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) has multiple myeloma. It’s been caught early, but still it’s a life-threatening condition. You may recall that Scalise was shot several years ago while playing a softball game.

    My thoughts are with Scalise and his family.

  21. Not including today’s stats, Boston has had the 4th wettest summer, Worcester 2nd wettest.

    Worcester has outside chance at #1.

    1. Nope. We’ll have a warmer pattern, but not a hot one. Canada will be open for business. 🙂

    1. Gee. I think it was a year ago I suggested this. Although with BBs treatment of Mac, I also think he’d be better with another team.

      1. I’d like to hope they smoothed things over between then and now and are on the same page. I guess we’ll find out! 🙂

        1. Just playing Zappe in preseason is demoralizing. He knew before preseason whether Zappe had it. I knew a year ago But talks of trading him in summer were inexcusable.

  24. Yup it’s foggy at Logan just landed after one missed approach and 2 loopty loops around Brockton.

  25. Not only Zappe but Cunningham and McSorely (sp.?) as well. The only QB left is Mac Jones.

    K Nick Foulk is gone as well. The most dependable in the NFL last year if I’m not mistaken.

    The Patriots now with only one QB and the best kicker ever gone…not to mention the ABSOLUTE worst offensive line in the league!

    With that combo, an EXCELLENT chance at the postseason. WE GOT THIS!!! 😉

    1. Prayers for everyone in its sights

      I like to think it is better for SC and its barrier islands to go in from the west. I hope

  30. 941 mb !!!!!

    That’s another 25 mb drop in several hrs !!

    If there’s a small positive, the satellite and radar appear to show a small eye/core which might offer an opportunity to affect less of an area with the worst of the conditions.

  31. Cedar Key, FL …. some distance SE of where landfall will be has a current 6.34 ft storm surge.

    The water was expected to be at 2.01 ft and it’s at 8.35 ft

  33. Cedar key now at 8.65 ft or .3 ft rise in 10 min’s.

    The real tide should be dropping, so the storm surge is now up to 6.73 ft

    1. It ingested a lot of dry air and became less organized prior to landfall. They said it rapidly strengthen, but at the surface, it really did not. It likely weakened. I will disagree that it made it to CAT 4, but you know how that goes. The good news is it came ashore in a very sparsely populated area, lessening the impact.

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