Wednesday August 30 2023 Forecast (7:38AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

We start today out humid, overcast, foggy in some areas, with drizzle and scattered showers, even a few downpours. A band of rain and embedded thunderstorms located in southern VT, far western MA, and eastern NY as of 7 a.m. represents a frontal boundary that will push eastward, with the rain and thunderstorms sweeping through the WHW forecast area from west to east later this morning into the early portion of the afternoon, exiting the main eastern shore (NH Seacoast to MA South Coast) by 2 or 3 p.m., of course taking longest to get by Cape Cod, which may miss the widest rain area but still experience some scattered showers/storms until late afternoon. The exit of this front represents the end of a long weather pattern of frequent shower/rain episodes, as we will enter a long stretch of generally dry weather starting tonight and lasting into (and likely through) the upcoming Labor Day Weekend. I have been watching in the medium range the possibility of an old frontal boundary sliding into the region and maybe triggering an isolated shower or thunderstorm around the middle of the weekend, while this possibility will still be there (Sunday), it’s a very low chance and may end up non-existent by the time we actually get there. For now it sits in the forecast, but don’t let it alter your weekend plans other than just keeping the remote chance in the back of your mind. We will have comfortably dry and slightly cooler than normal air around for the final day of August on Thursday, followed by a gradual warming trend as we head through the first 4 days of September from Friday through Monday. Humidity levels will start to come up as we get deeper into the weekend, but they will remain below really uncomfortable levels. Once again a reminder that offshore Hurricane Franklin while passing well to our southeast and east will create large swells and rough surf from today to about Friday. Combined with higher super moon tides, this can enhance coastal flooding, in addition to the higher rip current risk and rough conditions at beaches and in coastal waters. Use caution / be aware.

TODAY: Overcast through midday / early afternoon with areas of fog, drizzle, and isolated to scattered showers, some with brief downpours, then an area of widespread showers and thunderstorms moving through from west to east, but may be numerous to scattered closer to the South Coast. Clearing trend west to east early afternoon on, but clouds lingering until late afternoon Cape Cod where still some scattered showers can occur. Highs 70-77. Dew point around 70, falling to around 60 by late in the day. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W, increasing to 5-15 MPH by late day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in lowest elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

High pressure slides offshore with a more humid set-up, eventually a chance of showers as a frontal boundary moves into the region around mid period, with temperatures rising to above normal for a few days before Canadian high pressure brings a push of cooler/drier air to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

The general idea continues to be for a west northwest flow here with limited rain and near to above normal temperatures.

89 thoughts on “Wednesday August 30 2023 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    I heard that Idalia is going to pass over a mainly uninhabited area with lots of woods. Hope that verifies.

    1. It made landfall in a very sparsely populated area.

      For sure reason media kept ignoring this … except TWC, ironically.

  5. Many communities are starting school today.

    Back in my day all or most schools started on the first Wednesday or Thursday of September.

    1. Agree. I don’t know what is up with the August start dates!!!
      I think I would have QUIT school had they done that
      when I attended school!! That is a STEALING of summer vacation!!!
      I would have gone absolutely NUTS!!!!!!!!!!

    2. While ad a youth i round have quit along with OS and as a parent I detested my kids going back after Labor Day, I believe the initial reason in many communities with a large Jewish population was to be able to add the upcoming high holidays to the calendar. It was definitely Framingham’s reason.

      That said I don’t believe either Sutton or Uxbridge have a large Jewish population and I know Sutton starts today. I also think Uxbridge May for the first time. My grands in both towns are still home schooled so start after Labor Day

  10. With regard to schools starting in late August, Boston may very well be one of the few communities left that continues to begin their school sessions in the first week of September like the way I and most others did. I believe they start next Thursday.

    On the news this morning one of the tv stations showed a map of the state with lots of red dots that start today surrounding Boston in all directions. August is becoming very popular around here now evidently. I wonder if the pandemic had something to do with it?

    1. Philip, see my comment above. But I will also check with a few SC member friends in various towns as you may be onto something with pandemic for some

  11. Jumping in on the school conversation, I’m in Sharon with a large Jewish population and school started today. And has started prior to Labor Day for the last 15 or so years. The high holidays might have something to do with it, but it’s more due to the teachers contracts wanting the Friday before Labor Day being added to their benefits. So my son goes today (1/2 day), tomorrow, then off Friday which is ridiculous.

    1. I think every town has its own set of reasons that drive the earlier start. Still waiting to hear back from three SC friends.

  12. Also to add, school committee meeting tonight to discuss potential masking mandates again. I will flip my sh** if that happens.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    If my school back in the day (70s) had decided to start in late August I may have become a runaway or a child hobo. I hated school so much, but loved the long summer vacation.

    1. I’m with you 100%. I can’t even begin to tell you HOW
      much I HATED school!!!!!

      It interfered with what I wanted to do every Day!
      I sat there watching the clock or day dreaming the whole
      day long. Still I managed to graduate near the top of my class. 🙂

    2. I agree with both you and JPD. I also hated when my kids and now grandkids went back early. As I think of it, my one grand who attends school is camping in Maine so RI must not start before Labor Day. Or at least his school district.

  15. I didn’t like going to school either but it NEVER EVER occurred to me to play hooky or fake an illness. Only the bad, misbehaving kids did things like that.

  16. I love the August start.

    In 20 years of doing this, the vast majority of students are tuned out after Memorial Day Weekend.

    June school days, just to get to 180 are USELESS, because of what I mentioned above.

    I have a different take on this.

    6 week summer break instead of 9-11 weeks that it is now.

    Take those extra 3-5 weeks gained and lengthen some current long weekends, maybe add in another break.

    In terms of learning and retaining, we just had 11 weeks off. We expect kids to have retained what they learned last year after having not used it for 11 weeks ???? STUPID !!!!!

    Then, we cram 180 days of stressful learning into a little more than 9 months. FURTHER STUPID !!

    Lengthen the school year out with more breaks and less downtime in summer. I mean, is 6 weeks not enough time off ? 11 weeks off thru high school per summer plus vacations, college has more time off than that and then as adults, most corporate world jobs have 2 weeks off per year and we wonder why people are stressed in their jobs.

    Not that I have an opinion on this issue. The Sept-June schedule is antiquated and INEFFECTIVE and useless.

    1. Interesting perspective and very valid. Thanks, Tom.

      I tend to support the Finish school system. Fewer in school hours, little to no homework, little to no standardized testing. And it has supported inclusion for years. Finland always places high in world rankings. The US? Not so much

  17. I actually checked in to post that, for tide guages, at least the site I look at, there really aren’t any tide guages right where Idalia came ashore.

    I’m hoping they’ll be able to accurately determine the surge.

  20. Is it very humid today or what? I know it’s not hot, but good lord does it feel humid outside. I’m truly ready for a sustained and therefore permanent (well, until next May/June) break in the humidity.

      1. Glad you’re confirming.

        My collection of t-shirts has collected many kilograms of sweat this summer. So much so that I’m going to have to throw out some of them as they can’t be cleaned anymore. Even after a hot wash they smell like sweat. It’s gross, I know. TMI, as they say.

  21. Ironically, it’s likely going to be hotter once we start September than it was at any time during the summer, especially August.

    Of course summer 2023 was just so weird around here with its cool, muggy temps and dark days. September 2023 will kick off just the opposite with blazing sun for days on end if anything. Days 6-7 show near 90 (88-89) most locations except the Cape.

    1. Not looking forward to late summer heat, needless to say. Really depressing thought. But I did anticipate it. We can and often do have heat and humidity in September, especially during the first half.

  22. Ace and I think Philip. You are absolutely right about the before Labor Day return to school. I was back in the olden days when a few towns did it go accommodate for the Jewish holidays. Now it is teacher contract dependent for the most part.

  23. I want to apologize about my post above.

    Not my thoughts, but how I said it. I lost my mind 🙂

    For several years now, I’ve really wanted to see a different school schedule. I saw the topic about when to start and it just flowed through the keyboard 🙂

    1. I saw nothing to apologize for Tom. I do agree that most kids are tuned out by Memorial Day. Looking back I probably was as well. 🙂

    2. Never ever apologize. There are a number of areas that make perfect sense. And you Thomas are never short on perfect sense

  24. I saw the NHC said that the hurricane, because of an eye wall replacement and some shear, came ashore probably as a cat 3.

    The part I’m interested in is the eye wall replacement.

    Does anyone think there was a double eye wall ? One fairly far away from the center and then the fairly small eye wall and eye ?

    Because one could clearly see the small eye and bright red convection on its north and northwest side …. and then lighter precip until another ring of heavier thunderstorms well away from that small center.

    Could somewhat explain that nearly 8 ft storm surge at Cedar Key, FL some nearly 50 miles southeast of landfall.

    1. Is that box jumping around a marine warning?

      I following NWS Charleston on twitter and I swear they have two or three a day under normal circumstances.

  31. Thanks, TK

    Tough commute this morning. There were places in Middleborough where the visibility was less than a quarter-mile!

    Day 1 with students in the books. I started my fifth decade (Year 41) today as an educator. Today also was my 58th consecutive first day of school going back to when I started the first grade in September, 1966.

        1. I started first grade in 1955. I started kindergarten (was called transition in school I attended) in 1954

  32. There are some news stories going around about a hurricane of this magnitude never having made landfall in that specific spot of the Florida coast making it unprecedented. This is a very weak use of that term. For one thing you can pick any stretch of coastline that hasn’t had a direct landfall and say it’s never happened. Just the mere idea of it especially along any part of the Gulf Coast which is prone to hurricanes but just very large is silly. So this is just another crap story for clicks. And if you want the truth, a hurricane of that magnitude has made landfall there before. If you’re going to do a made-up story you should at least do your homework first… Apparently they didn’t look back to the 1800s. Oops.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Cedar_Keys_hurricane?fbclid=IwAR0iv_1Vi9qAGoNg2QhvRBElYxC8riYPBSVZfQ1UOz31WouGIvtZP_KlbC4

    1. Not so “unprecedented” after all. Thanks TK!

      Interesting how you found that info but no one in the tv/radio media could, evidently. 😉

  33. Zappe and Cunningham are back with the Patriots and are now on the practice squad.

    Any chance they see any action this season?

  34. The dew point has dropped from 74 to 64 in the last hour. I’m sitting by an open window and can feel it happening!

    1. Ours was 65.6 when I had my new toy (Kestrel 3000) outside. I hadn’t figured how to use it this am so don’t know what high was

  35. Boston and Worcester now have the 2nd wettest summer on record. The 1955 summer is still #1 for both cities.

  37. 1955 must have been a doozy, because we did get a lot of rain this summer.

    The Red Sox bookended the month of August in the worst way: Got swept by the Blue Jays at the beginning of the month and got swept by the Astros at the end of the month. Their dwindling playoff chances are quite small at this point.

    It’s a bit of an empty feeling knowing that September Red Sox baseball games will not likely be meaningful. And I don’t really care about the Patriots. But hockey season is around the corner. I do look forward to that, both pro and college hockey.

    2. 1955 was a hot summer as well. Very few home A/C units back then. Only movie theaters had central A/C.

      The way the Bruins bowed out of the first round of the playoffs, I am done with them. Celtics too. We should have had at least one Duckboat parade.

      1. So you’re giving up on teams because they lost in the playoffs?

        I’m sorry, but if I’m a fan of a team, I’m a fan through the good and the bad. Anyone else isn’t a real fan, and I don’t want them back in the fan base. Good luck with whatever new teams you choose. 😉

        Giving up on a team because they were beaten is actually nothing but being a sore sport. Sorry, but that one deserves no sugar coating. I’m telling it like it is. 🙂

        The Bruins were beaten by a team that simply outplayed them. It happens, and that’s why they play the games. All the regular season does is take a long, winding path to set up the playoffs for the teams that make it. But when they start, the records are all 0-0. NOTHING before that matters.

      2. Most didn’t have ACs well into the 70s. We did have cross ventilation. Something foreign to younger folks and new homes do not have.

        Today is the birthday of a man who formed my view of Boston fans 😉

    3. Connie & Diane were a huge part of that summer’s total. We’ve never seen anything like it in all our time of observing, before or since.

  38. Idalia hit right at the super moon, which definitely impacted some of the tide marks hit yesterday.

    For example, in Charleston, which recorded its 5th highest tide level during records at 9.2 ft, the actual high tide was already a whopping 6.9 ft, the highest of this full moon cycle.

    Thus, the storm surge itself was a rather pedestrian 2.3 ft

    Had Idalia hit 10 days earlier near the quarter moon, Charleston’s 2nd tide that day was only 5.1 ft and thus, the water level would have “only” hit 7.4 ft.

    1. Late September has an almost as impressive super moon with big tides, so if the tropics activate again after mid September, we’ll have to watch out for a system coinciding with astronomical high tides.

    2. A lot of people don’t take this stuff into account when looking at these #’s. You do. I told you Tom, if you were not one of the best teachers in the world, you’d be one of the best scientists in the world. You include all the information, instead of cherry picking it. 🙂

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