Thursday August 31 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

On this final day of meteorological summer, we get a fall preview – a fresh Canadian airmass delivered by northerly breeze, but still a very nice day as we’ll have plenty of sun, though that sun will be filtered at times by high cloudiness across southern areas, which is actually the northern edge of the cloud shield from Idalia, which made landfall yesterday as a powerful hurricane in northwestern Florida and is now a TS moving off the coastal Carolinas. This system will stay safely south of our region through the coming weekend. But back to today – the gusty breeze that starts the day will settle down with time, but the high temperatures will generally be a few degrees below the normals for the date, and the dew point will be quite low in comparison to the last few days, so you’ll get that hint of autumn air. The first 4 days of September will be governed by high pressure with fair weather. High pressure will still be centered to our west on Friday with still some northerly component to the air flow, and then a more west to southwest flow will develop over the Labor Day Weekend as the high shifts slightly and slowly to the south. That old frontal boundary that I spoke of as a potential shower threat for Sunday will still be “there” in a sense, but the trend on the guidance has been to remove the shower threat, and consistently enough that I will pull it from the forecast, with just some patchy clouds being the result of the dissipating boundary Saturday night and/or Sunday. So the summer season, as defined as the time period running from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend, ends up book-ended by 2 spectacular holiday weekends with hardly any of that type of weather in between. The only caution to toss out there is the heavy surf, large swells, and enhanced rip currents along the coast from distant passing Hurricane Franklin, which basically peaks today then diminishes as we head toward and into the weekend. But the diminishment will be gradual, so anybody with coastal/beach plans should be aware of this.

TODAY: High clouds to the south, otherwise sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in lowest elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

High pressure will sit offshore with fair, more humid, and very warm weather September 5-6, before a frontal boundary moves in with showery weather September 7. A little more uncertain later in the period as to whether or not that front pushes away and Canadian high pressure brings drier weather, or the unsettled weather hangs on for a while longer. Will re-visit and refine this outlook with each update.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Previous outlooks for the medium range period have indicated a generally northwesterly upper air flow and fair, mild to warm weather, and this is still the general idea overall, but the trend on some reliable guidance places low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north, which can be a sign of unsettled weather sneaking back in if the low pressure to the south is close enough to exert more influence on the region. Just watching that change while I don’t really change the overall outlook from the current mostly fair and mild to warm status.

48 thoughts on “Thursday August 31 2023 Forecast (7:13AM)”

    2. It’s been interesting, but not surprising, to see the shift in the solutions the guidance spits out for such systems that are not being driven by strong steering.

      It’s already shifted from a large anticyclonic loop bringing the system back to FL and even into the Gulf of Mexico, to a drifting eastward then eventually out to sea, to what it does on the most recent run – the reverse track back toward the East Coast.

      In reality, it’ll probably never end up coming all the way back. Though a reversal / retrogression would not surprise me, and also would not be that unusual given the large scale pattern. 🙂

      1. Awesome song. At first I thought it was Joni Mitchell.

        And I’m convinced the older the get, the faster time goes.

    1. Thank you, JJ. This is the storm that birthed my love of weather. I know I’ve said this but you know me. I love memories. We were at Humarock in a house in the ocean. My dad took our only car to work that morning saying the storm was still in NC so he’d be home before it arrived here. It wasn’t long before the ocean was in the house. My dad with help from his employee managed to find a man (Col. Bissell) who lived in the other side of the river to come get us.

      I remember watching from that house as boats in the harbor knocked into each other and many sunk, including Col.Bissell’s

  10. A lot of Hurricanes hit New England in the 50s. Connie Diane Carol are a few that come to my mind. I am sure I am missing others.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Chief meteorologist Cindy showed a model that brings moisture from Idalia towards SNE from the southeast off the ocean late next week.

    Could this really happen TK?

  14. The steeple of Boston’s historic Old North Church toppled over during Hurricane Carol on Aug. 31, 1954. This was the second time that the steeple had fallen – the first during the “Snow Hurricane” of 1804.

    I guess this would qualify as a “once in a 150 year event”.

  15. My new toy has 71,1 with a 46.7 DP and max wind last 15 minutes 13.2. I need to get a tripod. So far the kids are getting a kick out if holding it. That won’t last long

  17. Well. I misbehaved. I love the kestrel 3000. But decided that it would be really cool to have a kestrel that would link with my device via Bluetooth so I can chart. So 3000 is going back and 5000 should arrive tomorrow. Along with a rotating windvane that I can mount on a tripod.

  18. Field report…

    I am currently in Ogunquit Maine and while the monarch population is definitely lower than I have seen since the last time I was up here (2019), there are some and they are absolutely beautiful and very healthy looking. I am trying to get a good photo of one and they are so photo elusive. You have to get very lucky because they never linger in one spot for very long and they also fly very fast…

  23. Interesting stat here about no 90 or higher temps for NYC
    Tweet from NWS Upton NY

    This is the first August since 1986 – 37 years – that Central Park failed to reach 90 degrees in the month.

  25. Was it Hurricane Carol (8/31/1954) that knocked down the WBZ TV/Radio tower? Or was it the subsequent hurricanes of 1955?

    If I’m not mistaken, WBZ was only off the air for just a few hours. If that happened today with digital, a station would be off the air for at least a few WEEKS probably. I hope these digital towers of today will never be put to the test. I have enough viewing issues with an ordinary breezy day.

    1. Actually, they’d barely be off the air at all if it happened today. Most stations have the ability to switch to another tower (and the permission to do so), in case of emergency. Think of how many radio/tv stations were broadcasting from atop the WTC on 9/11, and most of them were back on the air rather quickly.

    2. A radio antenna came down during either Gloria or Bob in Framingham. Know where or was but darned if I can recall the name of the station

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