Friday September 1 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Welcome to meteorological autumn, which is going to start out with what’s considered the last weekend of summer by “tourism” standards and still 3 weeks away from the actual (astrononimcal) end of summer / start of autumn. We’re a confusing lot, aren’t we? Well, at least this first morning of meteorological autumn has a bit of a fall feel, with chilly and dry air in place. And the day itself will be on the cooler side of normal, but sunny as high pressure floats across the region. And then as we get into the first few days of the new meteorological season, the actual astronomical season reminds us that it’s still alive and well, despite the pattern of much of it, by delivering us a warming trend and a long stretch of fair weather through the holiday weekend and even beyond. This will take place as high pressure sits offshore to the south and southeast of our region. The only “interruption” if you will is going to come in the form of an old frontal boundary and upper level disturbance that cross the region between Saturday night and later Sunday, bringing some clouds. You’ll also notice a hazier look to the sky later today into Saturday as a plume of high altitude wildfire smoke moves across the region from Canada. As far as the front and disturbance go, I still feel that the chance of any rain shower activity is so minimal that it’s not even worth putting in the forecast at this point. As we go through the days, it gets a little warmer each of them, with a slow increase in humidity not really noticeable to later Sunday or Monday and most especially Tuesday… Additionally, some rough surf and remaining rip current risk along the coast will diminish as we head into the holiday weekend – good news for those with plans that involve the coastline and/or coastal waters.

TODAY: Sunshine, becoming filtered later in the day by high altitude smoke. Highs 70-77. Dew point middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable with light coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clear except high altitude smoke. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 52-59. Dewpoint lower 50s. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High altitude smoke, diminishing late. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

High pressure remains offshore through midweek with warm, humid conditions here. Fair weather will be followed by an increased chance of showers as a trough and frontal system approach and move in from the west. A little uncertain still as to how long this hangs around as another high pressure area to the west will try to push in to dry the region out later in the period, as well as bringing less humid and somewhat cooler air. Fine-tuning to be done.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

A little hint of high pressure west and north, low pressure to south, in the general upper pattern. Overall pattern here is most likely mild and somewhat unsettled heading into the middle of the month.

35 thoughts on “Friday September 1 2023 Forecast (7:22AM)”

    2. Euro showed something at the very end of its run entering the screen. Looks like the next disturbance to exit Africa. NHC already has it with a chance for development in the next 5 days.

  9. High altitude smoke plume entering the region now. This one is not particularly thick and will just add a hazy look to the sky from now until about this time tomorrow.

  10. TK, btw, what do you think of the EURO hurricane depicting
    at 240 hours, both on last night’s 0Z and today’s 12Z runs?

    Thanks

    1. I think it may have the general idea right, but a storm that far to the N at that longitude is going to recurve most likely. Don’t think the US will ever hear from it. But, long way to go before we can say that with any confidence.

      1. Thank you TK, That is the way I was reading based on that model run, but as you say, 10 days out. Who knows, but odds favor recurve OTS. 🙂

  11. Basically this is how I think the tropics behave in the days ahead…

    Franklin, Jose, and what’s left of Gert all merge into one post-tropical cyclone, not overly impressive – kind of a run-of-the-mill North Atlantic storm.

    Idalia’s leftovers meander without much steering for a few days, then eventually get picked up and shot toward eastern Canada as a post-tropical system, not overly impressive either.

    TD 12 has no future except for fish.

    What will be TD 13 will probably be the first long-tracked system of the season and I think once it gets into the western part of the basin it’ll be far enough north to recurve well east of the US coast with only Bermuda perhaps needing to eye it. Obviously lower confidence that far out, but that’s my general take for now.

  12. TK provided some great data and discussion on the heat in the Upper Midwest a couple of weeks ago. Well would t you know it the forecast for Minneapolis Sunday is for a high of 100 which would be only the second time in history they have hit 100 in September. Pretty amazing

Comments are closed.