Sunday September 3 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

A quick mid-holiday-weekend update for you today. Some sneaky showers made it into parts of the region overnight, you know, the ones that I removed from the forecast. Well, at least they didn’t interrupt any big plans, unless you were having an overnight block party where they were occurring. Anyway, they’re gone, and just some clouds linger as the triggering disturbance exits the coast. This opens the door for high pressure to re-take the field and be the only player for the next several days – the rest of the holiday weekend and beyond, into the middle of next week, along with the arrival of summertime heat and eventually higher humidity too. An approaching trough and frontal system increases at least the cloud cover and potentially the shower / t-storm chances by later Thursday…

TODAY: Early clouds, then sun dominates. Highs 78-85, coolest at the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, turning cooler in some coastal areas during the afternoon. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes redeveloping.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms late-day or night. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

A trough moves through the region from west to east late this week – slowly – bringing humid weather and a shower/thunderstorm chance to start. Expecting a frontal boundary to move offshore early in the weekend but higher humidity and at least a slight shower chance may linger at first before we trend drier late weekend and beyond. Temperatures should run slightly above normal overall for this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Still leaning toward high pressure to be more dominant than low pressure which is pushed more to the south, so the idea continues to be a mild / dry pattern with a cooler shot of air from Canada possible at some point too.

77 thoughts on “Sunday September 3 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  1. Last night I was at 2 of the bigger events for the Gloucester Schooner Festival: The lighted boat parade and of course the fireworks. The boat parade had quite a few participants in it. I recorded it and will be posting it to my YouTube channel today. The final boat in the parade must have been done or re-done at the last minute, as it was a very nice tribute to Jimmy Buffett. I’ll let you know once I post the video.

    And of course, the fireworks display was insane. I’ll have video of that up later too in case anybody wants to check it out. My new favorite spot to watch 1 of the 2 Gloucester displays I go to annually is Half Moon Beach. It’s so close to the launch spot. Close and LOUD, just the way I like my displays. 🙂

    1. What awesome fun. I’ve always wanted to see the boat parade but as often as we went to Gloucester, we never have.

  3. Thanks TK.

    Jacob is closely watching a disturbance off of Africa in the Carbo Verde region. He hinted that this region is where many of our big hurricanes come from.

    “Bob”, August 1991

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like at least another week of relatively hot and increasingly humid weather. Summer is not going out with a whimper.

  8. Summer rarely goes out quietly. I am not surprised were getting this blast of heat and humidity. To me once we get past the first week and a half of September the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power.

    2. Thank you for posting that song from Jimmy Buffett. He will be greatly missed. Also, I loved the movie Summer Rental and I also loved the actor John Candy.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    I fear that I will be jealous staring at this week’s weather out my classroom windows! 🙂

    I agree with you, Scott and Vicki, that Jimmy Buffett’s passing hit us hard. Like many, I played his playlist all day yesterday, including his Christmas album.

    I found it ironic and wonderful that he passed on Labor Day. His first real hit, “Come Monday”, holds the opening lines:

    “Headin’ out to San Francisco for the Labor Day weekend show.”

    If I am not mistaken, before the Deutsche Bank tournament started coming to TPC-Norton, Jimmy would end his summer tour on Labor Day weekend at Great Woods in Mansfield.

    Another line in “Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes” says:

    “If we couldn’t laugh, we’d all go insane.”

    That line helped me get through remote teaching/learning and the pandemic, and still does through the craziness of the 2020s.

    Thank you, Jimmy, for all of the fun!

    Enjoy this great summer weather, y’all!

    3. Oh my. Even as I listened to come Monday, I didn’t put two and two together. Tears streaming yet again. Thank you, Captain

  17. My thoughts on the wave way out in the Atlantic (95L). Every single Cabo Verde wave this season has done 1 of 3 things:

    1. Encountered Saharan Dust and just gone poof.
    2. Gotten ripped apart by wind shear either before developing, or shortly after being declared a TS/TC.
    3. Recurved out to sea WAY out in the Atlantic, and then finally starts developing once it is away from the shear and dust.

    So, why does everyone seem to think this one is going to be any different? Because a couple of models think so? The same models that are notorious for over-developing tropical systems that haven’t formed yet? How’s that worked out so far this season?

    1. So why don’t you tell us how you really feel! 🙂

      All, I said was that it needed to be watched as have several
      local TV Mets. Sure one of those 3 outcomes could happen, perhaps even likely, but a 4th outcome could happen as well. Time will tell. No harm in watching it.

      2. Nobody said there was harm in watching it. We’re getting posts all over social media that end up sending questions are way that we have to answer based on misinformation. People here know better. There are many who do not, and it’s great trying to ignore them, but it’s not easy when people are constantly asking you about what they say. 😉

        Keep watching it. We’ll be doing that too. 🙂

        1. Here are the examples of questions/comments I have gotten messaged to me in the last 24 hours alone…

          * “So I hear we’re finally going to break our hurricane drought in New England.” followed by a screen shot of a post by a pretend-met.

          * “They said that the wave in the Atlantic is going to rival 1938 when it gets here.” Great! Glad they have a crystal ball that actually works.

          * Someone sent me a post where the person said “We have our eyes on the first long tracked hurricane of the season, and it’s going to be one to remember”. How about the simply fact it’s not even close to being a hurricane yet.

          Yes, this is what I mean. It IS a problem out there, and we can’t just ignore it. It’s undermining the profession.

        2. We do a group of radio stations in the USVI. We already started getting messages from them on Friday asking about the hurricane heading their way next weekend.

    2. 100% spot on. I should show you a series of posts I saw with mega-hype about Idalia coming back to New England, based on a couple ensemble members of a couple runs being read by people who can forecast “because they can read a model”. It was comical. When it was obvious it wasn’t going to happen (not that it was much of a possibility anyway), the person declared they needed a break from social media to focus on the winter forecast, which takes weeks to make, but they already made (based on previous posts). 😉

      Meteorology, not modelology. 🙂 We went to school and got degrees in this field for a reason. 🙂

  18. Yeah passing of JB was a big one . My wife was a huge parrot head & it’s when I met her she introduced me to some of his concerts . Boy the stuff that you saw tailgating was insane . Bars made up , blenders going in overdrive, the clothes people were wearing etc . How come I didn’t come across this back in my drinking days lol . Just a phenomenal performer who made a lot of people just happy .

  19. I’m at the south coast of Rhode Island waves about three feet eleven seconds between waves. Water near shore about 73°. Waves still have some energy high tide here water run up almost to the dunes.

  21. https://photos.app.goo.gl/1FLx4HKDcUkYAQBc7

    Here’s a quick capture of the Jimmy Buffett tribute on the final boat in the parade in Gloucester.

    I don’t know if the guy standing by the clock was really playing that guitar but he was definitely into it. This boat by far got the largest cheer of the lot.

    Of course they were blasting some JB on their way through the Blynman Canal (which is where the Anisquam River enters Gloucester Harbor.

      1. American Thunder. Same company that does Salisbury’s Saturday night displays and all of the ones at Hampton Beach, as well as a large assortment of events around the area for the season, including many of the city/town fireworks displays on and around July 4.

    2. Spectacular. I will watch again later with sound off. But am sitting ringside as granddaughter rides and don’t want to spook the horse

  23. Having a discussion with sibs this afternoon about Covid. I promise this will be the only Covid post of the day.

    Some context. My 2 sisters are liberal. My 2 brothers are conservative. All four, however, are libertarian when it comes to vaccine and mask mandates OUTSIDE of healthcare settings. They don’t like them. BUT, in hospitals or clinics they are in favor of such mandates. And all four strongly disapprove of some of their colleagues who when symptomatic are at the hospital, often maskless, and therefore knowingly spreading infection.

    My brother, a super conservative Trump supporter, just wrote to me the following:

    “Any positive test should still mean up to 5 days of isolation from patients, especially vulnerable ones. And, even without testing, if it’s likely a doctor or healthcare provider has Covid they should not go back to work with patients until they are completely without symptoms. That ensures that they won’t infect them. This requires a candid self-assessment of symptoms to ensure their patients’ safety.”

    1. A bit more context: 2 sisters are dermatologist and internist, respectively. 2 brothers are oncologist and nephrologist (kidney), respectively. I’m the black sheep of the family, the non-doctor who hates hospitals.

  24. Off and on, I have been searching for and reading articles and snippets about AI and weather forecasting. Certainly there have been efforts and the one that gets some PR is the Deep Generative Model of Radar (DGMR) which I believe has been developed/used by DeepMind, Google’s AI lab. An attempt was made to predict rainfall in the UK with some success and predictably some drawbacks.

    I think deep generative models have also been used to predict temperatures and maybe detect potential cyclonic activity, but truly all of it, to me anyway, seems unimpressive at this point in time. There are limitations that plague meteorological models today and there are limitations that similarly plague AI. AI needs to learn, learn, and learn. Tough to do in a science that is partially grounded in chaos theory.

    Obviously things will change. It’s just something we can all check on from time to time. Anyone here who can direct me to a sharp, not-so-scientific article on this subject matter, it would be much appreciated. And yes, this is a very random post.

  25. My new Kestrel. I liked the first one so much that I ended up retiring it and getting one that uses Bluetooth to send to my devices. I do need to figure how to move DP above humidity in the display so I see it in default screen. This was at barn this morning

    https://imgur.com/a/PqYpdWp

      1. Thanks. I do also. This is the 5000. For the 3000, I had to scroll for individual numbers.

        I want to create spreadsheet. I love excel for spreadsheets. But I don’t want to have to open a computer I barely use any more to access it. I downloaded numbers for iPad and am almost up to speed on it.

        I clearly have too much time in my hands

  28. Sak what station do you work for down in the US Virgin Islands, would love to know as I live in the USVI.

    In terms of what is going on here. we are certainly keeping an eye out for that storm but the only thing going on now is people are going to places like Cost U less and Pricemart to get bulk items, probably really start Monday or tuesday even if the models/forecast show it moving to our NE as knowing that they should already have this stuff but also stores start putting regulations on how much you can buy of each thing 3 or 4 days before the storm due to how long supplies get to the islands. Much bigger deal if a hurricane hit us than if one hits the mainland. So people down here take it seriously and as a threat until it crosses that 20N line and east of 60W for sure.. As someone working in the coral nursery, we already have stage 1 of the hurricane plan going into place on Tuesday.

    1. I sure hope nothing heads your way Matt. I remember my father in law taking it very seriously when then were in Charleston. They were in Spokane when Hugo hit thankfully. But if there were any question, he and my MIL high tailed it out. He figured they could return. No harm no foul. But not getting stuck an evacuation was well worth the risk of just having to return.

      Be safe!

    2. We forecast for Isle95, Mongoose, WSTX (AM + FM), WVVI, and one other that I can’t remember off the top of my head.

      I’m on air all day Saturday and Sunday on all of them (same forecast plays on all stations). We also do a tropical update for them as well. I’ll be on evenings Mon-Wed this week as well, covering someone else’s vacation days.

    2. Soon to be…Lee! (That rhymes)

      No wonder Jacob this morning was already concerned. A watcher for the east coast to be sure!

      40-60% chance of development

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