Tuesday September 5 2023 Forecast (7:06AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

It’s late summer and after a long meteorological summer of unsettled weather, we have a long stretch of fair, summertime weather in progress. This continues into late week too as a ridge of high pressure at upper levels centered to our west drifts to the east, crossing the region by Thursday and sliding offshore by Friday. Some interior sections make a run at a heatwave (3 days with high temps of 90 or higher). Although this won’t qualify as intense heat, it’ll feel pretty hot with the higher humidity coming in. An approaching trough will trigger thunderstorms to our west later Thursday and at least the remnant cloudiness will make it here later that day, and maybe a stray lingering shower or storm at night, with something similar by later Friday too, but largely it’s a fair weather stretch through Friday, and maybe even for at least part of the area Saturday with the ridge, which will then be to our east, being strong enough to hold activity from an approaching frontal boundary back mostly in western portions of our region. Fine-tuning will be required for that part of the forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day shower and thunderstorm favoring western areas. Highs 84-91. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A few showers/thunderstorms possible mainlyin the afternoon and mainly in western portions of the region. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Current idea is that high pressure sits offshore long enough to slow a frontal boundary down so it doesn’t completely cross the region until later September 11, leaving the region vulnerable to showers/thunderstorms with fairly high humidity until then. Fair weather follows for the middle of next week with temperatures not as warm, but still near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

A tropical system will possibly be passing east of our region offshore around the start of this period which may at least rough-up the coastal waters but the very early idea is that a direct impact is highly unlikely. Otherwise a mostly fair weather pattern is expected with near to above normal temperatures.

101 thoughts on “Tuesday September 5 2023 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Impressive temps at 1,000 ft Worcester and the summit of Mt Washington overnight and this morning.

    Very warm airmass above.

    1. My niece was in a campground in northern NH yesterday. She said temp was high 80s and they were at a fairly high elevation

  4. The shield of high clouds over the region this morning is from the low pressure area that was once Idalia. It’s way, way out there, but it’s shedding quite a high cloud batch southwestward.

          1. I don’t mind 80s either, but near 70 dp with it is
            NOT desirable. It fact it truly SUCKS!!!!!

            Sea breeze made it to my location yesterday, eventually knocking temperature back from 84 to 78. It took all afternoon, but it did it.

  12. This HAFS-B Hurricane model, intensifies this tropical
    system we have been discussing for days MORE than any other model. Please take with grain of the salt of your choice. 🙂

    Still, pretty cool to look at

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsb-p&region=95L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2023090506&fh=126

    At least it projects the system to pass North of the islands
    and likely a good sign it STAYS OFF SHORE of the US mainland.

    Time will tell.

    1. Fairly small COMPACT system as depicted. I love watching these things progress. Very likely a FISH storm, but it ain’t over until it’s over.

        1. Cantori….and I just remembered to go back to check whether you saw my post on the cost of the kestrel.

            1. Wow! Pretty pricey!!! I was thinking of picking one up, but NOT for that price. 🙂 🙂 🙂

              Thank you for sharing.

              1. It is definitely pricey. I don’t ever buy anything for me so after some internal debate decided to bite the billet so to speak.

                It calculates wet bulb also which I’ve heard you mention although I don’t really understand what it means

  13. Logan is up to 82 already, but the wind has gone light NNE, spelling the beginning of the SEA BREEZE!!!

    81 here.

  17. Now up to 82 here. My equipment says DP 73
    Let me calculate that based on temp and wet bulb as it is usually more accurate:

    It says that the Dew Point is 72.

  18. According to Weather Underground which I have on my computer it is 78 degrees here and the forecast says there that the wind will be out of the Northeast today. Does that mean there will be a sea breeze in the Boston area? Will the wind switch to the Southwest later and temps. get warmer? There’s a light “coolish”, actually more damp breeze coming in our house now.

    1. Looks like an upper low, cutoff, sitting and not moving over the sea, southwest of Greece. Not moving at all. Copious moisture moving south to north over Greece.

  21. Thanks TK.

    My early take on TD 13 mirrors that of TK and SAK. Likely a greater threat to Bermuda than the US East Coast, other than wave/surf impacts. TD 13 is going to become an exceptionally strong hurricane for its location, and it would be quite rare for such a powerful storm in that position to not recurve. The upper level pattern also does not appear to support an atypical track farther west. If anything, I would expect to see the system trend east of the current model consensus.

    However, the obvious caveat is that it’s 8-9 days away from when it could hypothetically threaten the East Coast, so the envelope of possible outcomes is very wide, and it certainly bears watching.

  28. Differently oriented and positioned trof to our west and more westward reaching atlantic ridge on 12z GFS vs 00z GFS leads to a big westward adjustment run to run.

    Windshield wiper effect probably for another 9 days to come on GFS. 🙂

  29. If there is a threat from Thirteen, it would be for Bermuda as it stands now but even that, if it happens at all, is a ways off … next week.

  31. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023090500&fh=246&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023090512&fh=234&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    I’ve commented/complained on this before.

    I know its 10 days out and that should allow for some run to run difference.

    But, this much. Its night and day with the central Atlantic ridge.

    Its why the track is so different.

    No one is going to have a long lead time if this or another system later in the season were to threaten from the Atlantic and that is worrisome.

    1. So true. What is one to trust.
      Let’s see what the Euro shows. Probably EAST of BERMUDA!!!

      🙂 🙂 🙂

  34. Today’s mid month teleconnection outlooks (likely to change or modify in coming days):

    Positive PNA
    Negative AO
    Slightly Neg NAO (this outlook has members both for pos and neg phases)

    West coast US ridge, where’s the downstream trof ?
    Possible somewhat amplified pattern ?
    Some northern Atlantic blocking ?????

  35. Gotta love the low-mid 90F heat indices, low 70F dps ……

    with a mixture of N, NE and E surface winds …………………………………. in eastern New England.

    I’m thinking these wind directions associated with this kind of warmth and humidity in New England won’t be found in many weather books. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  38. 12Z EURO coming in farther South and West at 180 than the 0Z run was by A whole degree in each direction. That “should” imply a more westerly track. We shall see.

    1. Both op runs (GFS and Euro) today at 12z retrograded the 500 mb pattern compared to their 00z runs

      Central Atlantic ridge further west, central US trof further west.

  40. Good lord it’s warm outside. Feels much more like July than September.

    I must have sinned badly. I repent. The day of atonement is coming up. I’ll confess anything. Just make this heat and humidity go away.

    1. Your good 🙂

      Sometimes, septembers can be summer like. 1983, I think ……..

      With the ocean temps above avg, as long as New England has a ridge or southwest flow at 500 mb, I think there are better chances it might be more humid than usual given those above avg SST.

    2. Granddaughters 3;00 riding lesson was postponed till 6. Not sure that will make a whole lot of difference. Sun may not be right on ring so that would help

    1. FLOTUS, POTUS, SCOTUS, I’m still trying to get used to these acronyms.

      There is some good news on the BA.2.86 (Pirola) front: While it has many mutations it does not appear to be as contagious as many other Omicron sub-variants. This is preliminary data, but reassuring nonetheless.

  42. On the Dutch news site, the main headline is on the heat enveloping the nation this week. The first sentence sums it up well: “With temperatures approaching 30C [86F] in parts of the country, this means enjoyment for some, and huffing and puffing others.” I’m definitely in the latter camp.

  45. Martha’s Vineyard heat index = 93F

    Awfully high considering it’s completely surrounded by water. Is it a thermometer malfunction??

  46. Philip, thanks for asking. More tired than I’d like to be (could also be the fact that Boston is once again a lot like Accra). But otherwise okay. No lingering symptoms besides fatigue.

  47. A few days ago I mentioned that Alert (Nunavut, Canada) had gone below freezing and probably will stay that way for the next 7 or 8 months.

    Tom just posted the refreshing temperature of 17F that the good folks of Alert – well, maybe a dozen airmen and a handful of scientists – are enjoying.

  49. It’s fascinating to hear accents in extremely remote and isolated places. On the video below, from 9.32 on, listen to some of the accents – a mix of Canadian, Scottish, maybe Irish – of the young people of Labrador (they’re snowboarding, among other things). It’s hard to follow what they’re saying sometimes. The language itself is different from anything I’ve ever heard (and I’ve traveled a lot). They use words like “deadly” which seems to mean “cool.” The maker of the video is from St. John’s. He has a touch of a Scottish accent, but not nearly as pronounced as the folks from Lab City. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPzeR7JEklA

  50. My daughters riding instructor is part of the medical staff at Brigham. She said they are seeing a huge increase in Covid cases. Most who are vaccinated are mild. It started abiut two weeks before school and they expect it will increase

    She also said Brigham and she thinks most medical facilities are requiring masking in all patient areas. She has always worn one

    1. We were in the surgical unit at South Shore hospital last Friday and only some patients were wearing masks probably by their own choice. All others including the medical staff were mask free.

      1. I’m not surprised. Disappointed but not surprised. I think she was thinking Boston hospitals. I was not clear. But she was not 100% positive. Brigham has adopted the policy. For staff.

    2. It’s 100% sweeping through the memory care population at my place right now. It got everybody basically.

  51. POTUS Biden has tested negative twice now. I believe I heard that FLOTUS (Jill) is in isolation and not even in the White House. She also didn’t go to her teaching job today (1st day).

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