Thursday September 7 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)

187 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

A couple more days of summer heat and several more days of high humidity are on our weather menu as we head from midweek through the second weekend of September, and it’s still very much summertime, so if decided to carve your pumpkin weeks in advance, keep in mind it probably won’t last that long, while you sip your pumpkin spice iced coffee to wash down that piece of Halloween candy you sneaked because it’s going to melt in the heat anyway, and tweak your Halloween decorations. The weather will be staying in-season for a while longer. The high pressure ridge that brought us the hotter weather will slide to the east today and park offshore Friday into the weekend. Initially it is going to hold back the shower and thunderstorm threat from an approaching trough to our west, but with time, it will make its way in here. The chances are very minimal that something rogue survives into the western reaches of the WHW forecast area this evening, and again tomorrow afternoon or evening, with similar on Saturday – maybe just a slight up-tick in the chances that day too. But it’s really more of a Sunday-Monday time frame when a frontal boundary finally cuts its way across the region with a better wet weather opportunity. Heat peaks today, but again some coastal areas may be delayed due to a sea breeze. If Boston breaks 90 for the 5th time this year, it happens late today when the sea breeze quits. I don’t think they have a shot at it tomorrow and nobody will be reaching 90 or higher as we move into and through the weekend, as despite the high humidity remaining, a slow cooling trend will be just getting underway.

TODAY: Lots of sun. Highs 87-94, coolest coast. Dew point 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes, then SW 5-15 MPH later.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a stray shower or t-storm southwestern NH or central MA early. Areas of fog form. Lows 65-72. Dew point similar. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partial sun. A late-day shower or t-storm may visit central MA or southwestern NH. Highs 83-90. Dew point hovering around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm potential in the evening, especially north and west of Boston. Areas of fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point similar. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible in the afternoon mainly eastern CT, central MA, southwestern NH. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW-S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Briefly fair and less humid early in the period then the approach of another trough from the west by the middle of next week brings another spike in humidity and increased shower chances. At the same time we’ll be watching offshore Hurricane Lee, which, while still being too far out in time to nail down any specifics, has a fairly strong chance of passing well offshore of the Northeast late in this forecast period. Outer effects (high swells / heavy surf / an outer rain band reaching eastern areas) are all potentials when you look out at a passing system this far in advance. Tracking/tweaking will be ongoing at the proper pace, and here I put a caution for you to know your information sources regarding weather. Use trusted ones, with meteorologists giving the info. Use social media with extreme caution.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Overall pattern looks cooler / drier with more northwesterly flow from Canada. More specifics to come.

187 thoughts on “Thursday September 7 2023 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  3. TV guys starting to say things on air about the risk of paying attention to social media (hinting at the non-met pages). GOOD!!!! YAY!!!

    One example last night: “This is why you don’t stay things on social media two weeks in advance.” These guys are well aware of what’s going on out there…

    I told you that issue is real. And the mets need to defend the profession. I’m glad it’s happening. 🙂

    Ok, very busy day ahead at work and with my mom after. I’ll try to check in by evening.

    2. Good for them. Several of our Mets have said this for quite a while. Sadly, it won’t help and frankly anyone who wants to listen isn’t worth the time of day

  11. 79.9 here with a 73.3 DP as of maybe 15 min ago

    I’m hearing Framingham May be having an early release due to heat. Good for them.

      1. 84 with 72 dp at Logan. Very light NW wind there, destined to turn on shore very soon.

        Sea Breeze Did NOT make it here yesterday or if so, very limited affect. We made 88 yesterday in a decidedly
        HOTTER day than ALL the previous days this month. 🙂
        Do NOT expect an effective sea breeze at my location today.
        Fully expect 90 or higher today here.

        What a STINKER it is today!!!!!

          1. I rarely have trouble with words thanks to my Gibbs training. But affect and effect have always confused me. You will notice I used the word impact instead 😉

      1. I was thinking of you and a couple of others here when I read it.

        As an aside. Did you see my comment yesterday that I returned the kestrel 5000

  15. Currently 9/15 – 9/17 is the time period but that COULD still change. At the very least Lee will generate some wave action.

  19. The media will have everyone all hyped up by Sunday, Monday. They will show the plywood scenes from Lowe’s and Home Depot. Like Mr. Bill used to say oh no!

  20. Thanks, TK.

    I’m at a conference where I’ll present in an hour. It’s about 4 miles from my apartment. I left the apartment on my bike, rode a half mile and then turned around. I wimped out. Just too warm. Took a taxi and will return home on one, too.

    3. And it’s `official’ as far as I’m concerned, I’ve never felt it this warm the first week of September. I realize full well that we’ve had hotter days in September. But this stretch has just been quite something.

  21. Logan is up to 88 with calm wind, dp 70

    Can they make 90 before the East Wind knocks temp down a bit????

    OR do they make it with the 4-6 PM wind shift to SW????

    Awfully close to it already.

    85 here.

    1. I’ll admit I’m in A/C, but I’ve got to think the very light winds must have it feeling really tough outside.

      I’ll find out in a bit when we head to the Caf, which is not A/C’d and is brutal.

      The students are taking a math diagnostic on the computer this week. I’m looking forward to actually teaching, starting tomorrow hopefully or for sure, Monday.

      1. Yes, indeed.

        This akin to Ali v. Foreman. Foreman, that’s me, battling summer (Ali) with all I got, Then summer taunts me and deals a quick combination followed by a right to floor Foreman.

      2. I haven’t looked to see if any other schools have early release. I did find out Framingham def does

        Glad you are in AC. Was thinking of you and Captain and all of our teachers

      1. They hit 90 prior to sea breeze, unless it was a round and it was really like 89.3 or 89.4 🙂

        With all the heat to the West and Southwest of city, as soon as wind shifts to SW, yup it will shoot up to 90 or 91. 🙂

        Wonder what time that will be? I’m guessing 4-6 PM

  26. According to MESO WEST data, Logan briefly made it to 90.
    Now, full disclosure, it is possible that is a round error and perhaps 89 was the max. We’ll know later.

    1. You mean the run is beginning, but it no where near far enough out to know the exact entertainment value. 🙂

      I am WAITING!!!!! 🙂

  30. I may be OFF my rocker, but it appears to me that so far the big RIDGE that slips to our East is keeping LEE following a
    Southern route and for now preventing LEE from turning NORTHWARD. WIll continue to monitor.

    200 mb winds still aligned to force LEE to move Northeastward
    and pass off shore.

    We shall see.

    1. now, the 00z depiction of that trof dropping into the Great Lakes could be correct and this different 12z depiction could be wrong.

      But, there is a noticeable difference.

      1. on the 00z run, the center point of the base of the 570 dm contour is south of Chicago

        on the 12z run, the center point of the base of the 570 dm contour is back northwest over central Iowa. hr 150

  37. Thanks, TK.

    A wonderful 69 degrees right now in my third-floor classroom!

    Full day of classes here. Athletics schedule is being modified with games/practices being moved to the evening or cancelled outright.

    The MIAA has a heat policy which involves a wet bulb globe device.
    A reading of 86.1 or greater and all outdoor activities are cancelled for the day.

    https://miaa.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MIAA-Heat-Modification-Policy-081821-amended-9-1-22CB.pdf

    1. WET BULB of 86.1??????????? That would be lunacy. That can’t be right. It would have to be pretty damn hot and humid to have
      a wet bulb of 86.1.

      What does it say exactly?

      For example, here in JP, I have a temperature of 88
      Wet bulb of 77
      that computes to Dew Point of: 72.7

  39. With our planet being so warm nowadays, I wonder would an October-May school year work?

    I heard on the news that 26 states have a 4-day school schedule much like the adult workplace is seriously considering. In Massachusetts it would not work due to the 180-day rule. Students would have to forgo an entire month of summer vacation, that’s the way it was explained anyway.

    In MA, how was “180 days” decided that was the amount of time needed to educate? Different states have different numbers.

    1. For the last 80 days or so, the phrase “dew point” causes alarm bells and flashing red lights to go off in my brain.

      I would pay the weather gods A LOT of money to bring the dew points down to the 50s.

      Interesting chart on dewpoints, by the way: https://www.weather.gov/box/dewpoint

    1. It would appear that Nova Scotia is the target. Considering so far north, they seem to get a lot of tropical activity lately.

  43. Thanks Capt.

    So I looked it up and it is a complicated calculation
    for the WBGT or wet bulb global temperature which is way different than just the wet buld temperature,.

    I found an online calculator site and found the WBGT for my location to be 88.2 RED FLAG WARNING!!

    Thanks again,

    1. Absolutely, as is over or east of Bermuda a bit.

      Heck, the medium range modeling has been so bad, Cape Hatteras is non-zero.

  52. Just came from a staff meeting and I saw the AD who told me that, at the last measurement, the WBGT was 87.something so everything outdoors is postponed to tonight. Cross country practice was this morning at 6 am!

  53. Today reminds me a little of this same date in 1983 except it was hotter across the coast too – Boston’s high was 92, their 3rd day in a row of 90+ and a heatwave. Just 4 days later they would hit 99.

      2. Actually, they didn’t. My high temp range was 87-94 which included Boston. The only thing that I was off on was that the high came earlier than I expected. But they were a candidate for 90+ if there was land breeze long enough. It just happened to take place before the sea breeze and not after (though they still can jump up between now and sunset if that ocean wind dies off again).

  55. The Mt Washington observatory recorded a high temperature of 65.5 today. The previous record for this date was 64.

  56. A question for TK or anyone else who would like to chime in.
    Sunday morning, I will be playing in the USTA Regional Over 55 Doubles Tournament. (Since I am 82, I might not have to show an ID lol. God has been good to me and has let me compete on a rather high level with much younger guys.)
    OK….enough about me…..the question is, what might the odds be for showers in the Springfield area at 8am Sunday morning?
    There are contingency indoor courts on standby, but they are a bit of a distance away. Would prefer the outdoor scenario.

    And FWIW, the car thermometer read 99 on my way home in North Providence at about 4pm. Vicki, not far from your son in Lincoln. Taking off a couple of degrees for the pavement heat, it was still really hot. And of course, my dog wanted to go for a walk as soon as I got home lol.

    1. I think the odds of it raining there at 8AM Sunday are pretty low. I think shower activity across anywhere from that area eastward will be quite limited until Sunday night / Monday.

  58. TK,
    How ironic you mention 1983! I taught my first classes ever 40 years ago today, Septmeber 7, 1983, when the high in Taunton was 93. 40 years later, it was 93 degrees! It hit 97 on September 11, 1983.

        1. Really, really well ! I can’t believe we have 6 days in the books already.

          The students have made a great first impression.

          Smaller class, so I have much smaller classes this year, which is super !

          Hope your year has started great !!

  59. I know why 🙂

    The last 2 days, in my neighborhood, I think the coolest part of the day has been about 2-4pm, with temps in the low 80s

    Not now, 6:15 pm and the nearby airport is 88F and it’s very noticeable how much warmer it is compared to around 3pm.

    1. Tom, that’s what’s truly remarkable about this stretch. It’s incredibly warm just before sunset, in September!

      The wall of heat as I exit my apartment building is really as warm as I have ever felt it this late in the season. Of course that’s the combination of heat and humidity. And it’s already been 3 days of this in a row.

  60. Providence RI reached 90° today for the first time since August of last year. Now they have 1 day, and that very well may be it.

  61. Boston schools received 3800 A/C units from pandemic funding. Schools will be on normal schedule tomorrow. Not certain about sports activities though.

    Woburn, Worcester = EARLY DISMISSAL tomorrow.

    2. Should support an upgrade to Category 5 intensity later this evening, it’s borderline 4/5 based on that, but the still rapidly improving satellite presentation argues for a 5, no doubt it’s still strengthening. Not really unexpected, but the pace of intensification today has been jaw dropping.

      2. The only interaction will likely be at upper levels, and nothing that impacts the paths of either until they are both long post-tropical. They are simply too far apart from one another and will remain that way.

        The hurricane models are probably intensifying Margot too quickly. They’re notorious for this error.

  67. If I am reading the recon message right they measured a pressure of 930mb and a flight level max wind of 148 knots, which I think may translate to surface wind of around 150mph in the last couple hours, supporting WX Watcher’s statement on close to being a CAT5. Tom is better at reading these!

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml

    2. 11pm advisory 160mph, 928mb. Forecast to be 180mph in 12 hours but some models take it higher but NHC not buying that yet. It intensified mph in the last 24 hours.

        1. Perfect environment. For a few more days too to sustain. But once it gets into the water south and southwest of Bermuda – it’s chilly – and it’s bad news for Lee, which ironically may be moving a little more slowly than many of its cousins, giving the colder water even more time to weaken it. That would be good news for both Bermuda and (although far less likely going to matter as much) the US East Coast, should the storm end up further west.

  70. Ensembles …..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_gefs_00z.png

    Looks like more spread as we go forward in time.

    And the op runs, disgraceful !! The 00z Euro’s track looked like the 12z GFS. The euro, run to run, is having major timing changes. One run, the center is at our latitude, the next run, it’s at the outer bank’s latitude. The 00z GFS came west, closer to the 12z Euro.

    Pointless to use them. So frustrating. I feel for those in 3-5 months trying to see potential snowstorms out there in the medium to early long range.

    Might as well just have the models run out to 72 hrs. What’s the point of all the crap after that they are spewing ???

    1. That’s why I (or another met) will caution when one is really off its rocker. There is a great deal of benefit from modeling, but as you can see, it’s far from ideal. We’ll never reach that point anyway.

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