Friday September 8 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

The September hot spell peaked yesterday with many areas cracking 90, including Boston’s Logan Airport, adding their 5th 90+ day to the short list this summer (there have been several more in general over inland areas). But now we’re going to turn the heat down over the next few days, but keep the humidity high, as a low pressure trough moves in from the west, slowly, and an accompanying frontal system approaches. This will increase the shower and thunderstorm chances as we head into and through the weekend, probably peaking on Monday as the actual front moves through. Yup, it’s a slow process as things are not moving along swiftly in the regional atmosphere right now. Last evening, some showers and storms made it into the far western / northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area as was expected to be at least possible. As we go through the next few days, this area expands eastward ever-so-slowly, with today’s activity later on still expected to be mostly north of I-90 but west of I-495. The I-495 belt is more included in Saturday’s threat while I-95 eastward may remain free of the threat. But Sunday, include more of the region including the I-95 belt, while southeastern MA escapes the chance, at least for a part of the day, and then I believe it’s a regionwide threat with highest coverage on Monday. Finally, a break should come Tuesday as the front/trough pull to the east. While we’re not going to dive back into any autumn-like coolness during the next 5 days, when we get to Tuesday we’ll at least lose some of the humidity.

TODAY: Partial sun. A late-day shower or t-storm may visit central MA or southwestern NH. Highs 83-90. Dew point hovering around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm potential in the evening, especially north and west of Boston. Areas of fog. Lows 64-71. Dew point similar. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon mainly eastern CT, central and northeastern MA, southwestern and south central NH. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW-S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the I-95 belt westward. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers/storms end, clouds remain, patchy fog forms. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Three things to watch. 1) Hurricane Lee in the western Atlantic basin, with best odds favoring an offshore track between Bermuda and the US East Coast, closest pass to New England around mid period with primary impact being rough surf / large swells. Note: Lee should weaken a little more quickly than climatology would indicate due to a lingering wake cool pool from recent Hurricane Franklin, but it will still likely be quite powerful as it tracks through that area. 2) Trough of low pressure from the west, instrumental in helping keep Lee to the east of the US Mainland. But this system will likely bring high humidity and showery weather to our region during the first half of this period. 3) The exit of the trough allowing a cooler/dry air mass to visit from Canada later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

As we head through the final 5 full days of summer just prior to the autumnal equinox, the strongest indications are for a drier pattern with high pressure being more dominant, keeping most unsettled weather to the south and/or west of our region.

151 thoughts on “Friday September 8 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  1. NWS noted that the warmest days for the 4 major climate sites in SNE occurred outside Meteorological Summer in 2023. Not really a surprise. We’ve seen this before too…

    Boston: 93, Sep 7
    Hartford: 96, Apr 14
    Worcester: 90, Apr 14 & Sep 7
    Providence: 92, Sep 7

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Great write-up, as always.

    What I found interesting is that hurricanes can stir up the ocean water so much that cooling takes place. And so, if I’m understanding this correctly, in the wake of a previous hurricane the latest storm traverses a cooler body of water which can lead to weakening.

    By the way, 2013 stood out to me as a year during which temperatures and dewpoints `behaved’ seasonally. It was a tad cooler than normal (with quite low dewpoints), to be sure, in April and September 2013. But it was also quite hot and humid in the middle of summer. I do prefer this `behavior,’ knowing full well that this is not how it often works when it comes to weather patterns.

    1. Absolutely inexcusable. Wiki marked right leaning tabloid as unreliable years ago. It’s even worse politically. I have no clue why people read it but if they do then that is their bad. Boston had the record American. It went by the way. Hopefully, junk tabloids such as this will also.

  22. The scale of the disaster in Greece is quite large. See link below. And this coupled with other significant crop problems worldwide (including New England, though we’re not exactly an agricultural powerhouse) will lead to food price inflation. In fact, there’s already some evidence of inflation building again after a prolonged cooling off period (bad timing for Biden, by the way). Look for more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in efforts to corral inflation. I expect two more hikes of 0.25 each this year. 30-year mortgage rates could very well be in the 7.30 to 7.80 range by year’s end, with 8.00 not out of the question (this is one prediction I got right late last year when I was asked to forecast key indicators in the economy). https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700135198162124988

  23. Next Lee advisory may have to lower the intensity a bit unless they ignore the temporary trouble in its environment.

    Pressure spike in latest recon.
    May not be just EWRC as there’s a tad bit of shear present.

    1. Absolutely. Pressure seems to have settled into the low 940s from the high 920s and the winds are down a good 30 kts or so.

  24. Here is some good news. FLOTUS Jill Biden has now tested negative for COVID-19. Her husband continues the same. I would assume that they both can resume their normal activities.

  28. Vicki, it’s not just the crop damage from Spain to Greece that will have an almost immediate impact on inflation in Europe, it’s also the grain situation in Ukraine (bread basket for Europe). Bread is more of a staple in Europe than it is here (though it is a staple here, too). Then you’ve got the OPEC and Russia collaboration to reduce supply and therefore increase oil prices. This winter across Europe could very well be one of considerable discontent. Weather, of course, will be a factor. Last year’s mild winter across Europe definitely helped. We’ll see what this winter brings.

    Despite it still being a problem, our inflation situation is more under control than Europe and elsewhere. There are many contributing factors, including having an astute Federal Reserve Chairman. I admire Jerome Powell. But the biggest factor is a combination of being resource-rich, having the U.S. dollar be the world’s currency by a wide margin – only increasing over time, by the way), and relative self-sufficiency.. America has vast natural resources and is able to tap those resources relatively efficiently compared to all other nations. And because of our incredible wealth in terms of natural resources we’re well-insulated from global disruptions (of course this is relative, as we clearly can get disrupted somewhat). We’re FAR less dependent on imports (of practically everything that’s essential) than any of our peers. And our economy depends comparatively little on international trade (though it does depend very much on capital inflows and debt financing from countries like China).

  29. Well this hurricane business is not an exact science for sure.
    Last evening’s update said Lee would be gong through an area
    of NO SHEAR! and they had projected winds to 180 mph.

    Now the latest discussion says 15-20 mph SW shear for the next few days and winds 155 down to 140 mph.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if they REALLY Knew what was going on.

    I understand they do the best they can, but What a huge difference in 12 hours.

    NOT that it would matter one bit “should” it even get up here which it looks like it won’t.

    Waiting on today’s entertainment of the 12Z model suite.

  31. So far, the 12Z GFS is tracking a little more West and SOuth
    than did the 6Z run. We shall see how that translates later.
    this was as of hour 117.

    1. That op run is likely to be on the western edge of the most dense batch of tracks from the ensemble members and the mean is the more reliable solution at this range.

  34. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500wh-mean&rh=2023090700&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500wh-mean&rh=2023090712&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500wh-mean&rh=2023090800&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500wh-mean&rh=2023090812&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    This series goes from 00z yesterday, to 12z yesterday, to 00z overnight, to 12z this monday on the GFS ensembles.

    Unquestionable, the approaching trof is projected to be deeper with time. But, will it lift out without fully shoving Lee to our east and what steering will be left behind it ?

      1. I see some unsettled weather ahead and I am still not convinced lee stays too far off shore. Looking that way, but Not a sealed deal yet.

        Although Winter may not be the same, I can think of several Winter snow storms that were “Supposed” to stay off shore, but the trough deepened more than expected and BOOM!!!

    2. I think it lifts out before affecting Lee, however, it is the next trough that will likely kick it out, UNLESS of course that one
      gets deeper than projected, then all bets are off. 🙂

  35. The storms that are warned out here will have to move a bit east to reach here. We are in the warned area but on the very outside

  36. Thunder here in Sudbury. On radar storms look like they might be just west of us unless they take an easterly turn. A bit dark to the north but just cloudy here now, We will see what happens.

  37. I can’t believe with these dps and the radar echos that there isn’t some kind of localized flooding going on under these storms.

    1. Wow, Vicki, some fascinating clouds there. Looking at clouds and not as impressive as where you are. Trying to see which way they are going. Just getting darker w/rumbles of thunder.

      1. Nice. Looks as if it may have moved enough east for you to get into the action. Although I’m not sure of your exact Sudbury location

  44. I’m open to the possibility of Lee being missed by this first trof, left behind and waiting for whatever is next that the models couldnt possibly have accurately.

    The runs are so ridiculous. I mean the pressure difference the Euro has on Lee from 00z to 12z is unacceptable.

    1. The run to run differences in the medium range are astounding.

      At 500 mb in British Columbia, from a trof to a ridge.

      In central Canada, from a ridge near western Hudson Bay to a closed low.

      These op runs are useless after about 72 hrs.

  45. They’re naming certain storms that traverse Europe with first names of retired TV meteorologists. A Dutch met, Gerrit Hiemstra, is retiring, and they’ll be naming a storm after him at some point.

  46. we heasrd thunder here and there were a fre lightening strikes in the area a full 20 miles out ahead of the storms. Amazing!!!

    1. it looks like there is a kick Eastward on the southern end of the storms, almost as if there were a meso low there. I wonder if it will make it here. VERY DARK HERE.

  47. These are recent temperatures at a local weather station:

    2:04 PM 84.3 °F
    2:09 PM 83.6 °F
    2:14 PM 82.5 °F
    2:19 PM 81.4 °F
    2:24 PM 80.4 °F
    2:29 PM 75.3 °F
    2:34 PM 70.2 °F
    2:39 PM 68.2 °F

    3. It’s splitting hairs, but the current temp is 67.5 and the DP is 67.3.

      We picked up a quick 0.40″ of rain.

  49. I am under a severe thunderstorm WARNING here in JP. I Gues NWS thinhs we may get clipped by the Southern extent of the juicy echoes. Looks to be close!!!

  50. donw to 83 here and dp has dropped to 69
    npo rain yet. I still think what’s left of storms will pass
    “just” to our North.

  55. Power outages up to 24188 Middlesex county 29407 Essex county from those storms. Don’t want to be without power on day like today.

    2. While it’s still pretty muggy, it’s much cooler in all the power outage areas and the heat doesn’t have enough time to make a comeback – so that part is good.

  57. Hit very hard in western Andover. Intense winds for 2-3 minutes. All side roads are gridlocked with traffic with no where to go. Straight line winds easily hurricane force. Wish I could send photos. Dozens of trees down perhaps way more.

        1. Thanks OS. Our house is ok but drove passed several homes with trees on roofs and cars in driveways…. Well they’re in tough shape!

  58. Bart Simpson would call my forecast craptacular today, but it was one of the best blown forecasts I’ve had in a while in terms of allowing me a nice unscheduled chase. I had a little bit of downtime planned right after work, something I don’t get much of these days. And I used it chasing instead.

    Of course having to battle rush hour traffic on a Friday didn’t make it very easy and I never really caught back up to the storms I was trying to get to but I was given a very nice lightning show as I drove along.

    I have a few good bolts on my dash camera. I’ll take it and it was a nice way to end the week.

    I did drive through a leaf storm from the wind on I-95 in the Reading area. And I also drove through some pockets of tree damage… Mostly leaves and small branches but a couple of larger limbs as well along my route up 93 and 495. Knowing the storms were getting away from me swiftly at that point I abandoned the chase and came back via I-95.

    I have a football game photo shoot scheduled early this evening. I will be trying to update myself on the latest with Lee etc and our own local situation. Eventually I’ll check back in here…

  60. I was right on the edge of what I am certain was a downburst in N Andover. A lot of damage there. I didn’t linger. I was trying to get some lightning shots on dash cam. Got several.

    Lee: Peaked. Don’t think it makes it back to CAT 5. Once it passes north of the islands it’s going to start to feel the effects of Franklin’s wake cool pool. Still uncertain of course, but more confident with a track closer to Bermuda then the East Coast of the US Mainland. Will the hypesters learn finally? Nope, sadly they will not. I’ve already seen some of them bringing Margot to the East Coast. Good luck. I hope local media keeps pointing these frauds out. Take back the profession!!!

  61. A plethora of damage photos in North Andover that Diamond reported

    https://x.com/canollicamozzi/status/1700230299181789426?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://x.com/boston25/status/1700252469282943002?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://x.com/dorothyt51/status/1700231874507833689?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://x.com/byglenjohnson/status/1700230952482378140?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://x.com/nasupt/status/1700235254357741975?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    https://x.com/pauldiegocraney/status/1700243184113106978?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    1. Yup. That’s what I was near, but not in. I was behind the storm, and didn’t stop, but just from the damage along the highway I figured somewhere close by was worse as I could tell the core of the cell was just off the main highway. That confirms that.

  62. After the thunderstorms rolled through today in Pepperell there has been a really nice smell in the air like pine smell. I can smell it driving anywhere around town. There’s a lot of tree branches around that came from the wind so maybe could be that?

  63. Holy crap was that a storm in Andover! No cell service on the North Reading side of town, had to ride my bike downtown, road blocked with trees, downed poles, live wires. No power anywhere. Trees down everywhere, lots of poles down, whole neighborhoods inaccessible. Never seen anything like it.

      1. TK if you have time to take a ride up this way tomorrow morning to have a look see it’s quite a sightI’m curious of what your thoughts would be. I’m hearing of a fairly large swath of damage.

        1. I may try, but I just found out I may need to go back to work for a couple hours to fill in for someone – and on top of that I have a photo shoot at Hampton Beach in the PM / evening. I’ll let you know if I get up there!

  65. Boston (Logan) hit 88 today. Do we have any more opportunities for 90+ later this month into October?

    TK – Will we have to wait until Lee passes our Latitude for Canadian air to arrive? I am getting the impression that we are undergoing blocking much like in the wintertime.

    1. There has been a lot of blocking this warm season, yes. It’s only somewhat similar to winter, but obviously a warm season version.

      It won’t be the passing of Lee that will really trigger any dry air arrival. That system will have a little bit of a hand in the pattern down the road, but other things going on will be more instrumental in switching up the pattern.

  67. 79% of Andover with no power. Going to take days and days to restore it all. Went to North Reading for dinner at Hopothecary Ales, which was packed as not a single place in Andover was open. No storm damage here at all, literally a mile from my house. Just crazy

  72. Well, the GFS is being more consistent.

    3 or 4 straight runs now of Lee transitioning to extra tropical, wind field expanding and even some rain rotating into eastern areas.

    Early week trof lifts and leaves behind Lee, so the system isn’t exactly flying past our latitude in somewhat of a void of steering currents.

    And mostly headed due north, not one of those sudden turns to 045 (northeast) or even 060 (east northeast) that send it south of the Maritimes.

    I’m kind of still uneasy about the whole outcome. Not for a cat 3, 4 or 5, but of a moderate impact event at the coast with significant erosion, possible coastal flooding and wind issues with an expanding wind field.

    1. GFS tends to expand these systems a bit too much, and also a northerly wind here on the western fringe of the circulation of a rapidly-northward-moving storm would not be quite as significant if we were on the eastern side of the center. I suspect we’ll have a breezy day with some clouds. Seas will be rough either way, so that will lead to some coastal issues, probably comparable to what the post tropical Idalia did when it made that westward swing earlier this week.

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