Saturday September 9 2023 Forecast (8:15AM)

170 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Yesterday, a complex of thunderstorms came out of CT and northeastward across a swath of east central to northeastern MA into southeastern NH. Along this path there were numerous incidences of straight-line or downburst wind damage (no tornadoes). That batch of storms was a surprise to me, as I wasn’t really expecting anything to develop ahead of the showers/storms that made a run at us from the west later in the evening. Those at least behaved about as expected after the surprise event earlier. Now, we have a stretch of unsettled weather on our hands. The September heat is for the most part gone, but the humidity will hang around for a few more days as a trough of low pressure swings through from west to east. But it’s going to take until early Tuesday to get through the region, so we have a lot of cloudiness in the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will be around, though I think thunder-production out of these will become more the exception than the rule and we should not be seeing a repeat of damaging storms that some areas saw yesterday. I suspect that the activity will be only isolated to scattered today, scattered to numerous at times on Sunday, and after starting out just scattered may become more widespread on Monday, which regionwide should end up being the wettest of the next three days. We get a break on Tuesday as a little bubble of high pressure brings slightly drier air and reduces the shower chance to nil or just isolated pop-ups. Wednesday, another trough moves in from the west with a better chance of showers once again.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Intervals of sun. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. DP ~ 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower possible. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the I-95 belt westward. Highs 78-85. DP near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. DP near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers/storms end, clouds remain, patchy fog forms. Lows 60-67. DP 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloud/sun mix. An isolated pop up shower may occur over inland hills. Highs 70-77. DP near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon showers likely. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Our unsettled weather will continue early in the period due to a trough moving through from west to east. Hurricane Lee will be making its closest pass but still likely well offshore around September 15-16 based on current timing – keeping in mind this timing is not nailed down quite yet. This storm would send larger waves to the coast again as we’ve seen from several systems out there recently. An interlude of drier weather after the initial unsettled weather, and then another system may bring showers to our region from the west later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Drier trend with more northwesterly flow expected, along with more seasonable temperatures.

170 thoughts on “Saturday September 9 2023 Forecast (8:15AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    The following headline (in bold print) on page 2 of today’s Boston Herald:

    PROJECTIONS: STORM COULD HIT BOSTON, NYC

    Is this borderline reprehensible TK? Sure, once you get into the article it mentions that it’s too far out to know for sure, but isn’t the headline itself way too sensational?

    1. If that headline made it into either or both of the major Boston newspapers, it would leave me speechless to describe adequately, so I guess I’m at a loss for the right word ………

      That “idea” was taken from a tabloidic piece of shit publication, and is beyond moronic, unnecessary, and irresponsible. The editing team of the Boston Herald should be ashamed – but they won’t be.

      And I’m not going to apologize for calling anyone out by name anymore that does this kind of stuff. I’ve had it. Enough is more than enough.

      Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I tend to avoid newspapers now except our local one that I borrow from my mom to read.

      1. It’s the herald. Used to be the go to paper for our family but has been useless for years. The globe isn’t far behind. Very similar to the dictate to our meteorologists from the top that they must be first to get seven day out. Gotta love corporate America. And there is something we can do about it.

  4. The tropical humidity, keeping nighttime temps extremely above the average, have monthly temp departures running 5-8F above average for September at the 4 biggest reporting sites in southern New England thru the 8th, almost 30% through the month.

    1. Muggy patterns really keep the nighttime lows up. This will come down some later on but for now it’s more of the same.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I finally have more confidence that Lee stays well off shore. I needed all model all ensemble members to be off shore and now they are.

    I know this will sound nuts, but I am strangely disappointed.
    I guess I’m going to hell.

    1. Nah, I don’t think there’s many passionate weather people in San Diego.

      I get exactly what you are saying.

      1. San Diego. That’s where you go if you want to live in a place where there IS no weather. 😉

    2. If you see 1 or 2 members out of 51 doing something outrageous, you can 99.999999% of the time ignore those. Lee will pass closer to Bermuda than Boston. Said it several days ago. Still saying it. 🙂

  8. I don’t know what others think, but at 9am it is 77 with dp 73 here. To me that signals a hot uncomfortable miserable day, even if high temps top out at 85 or 86. for this time of year that is a hot day

  10. On the one hand i like the idea that we will most likely see big waves and surf and on the other, it can be destructive. Should think Cape and Islands will see their share of waves.

  14. A colleague of mine is in Morocco. She’s unhurt, thankfully. But she says the death toll from the earthquake could easily rise above 1,500. It’s already above 1,000.

    1. And this TK. Mets are speaking out I don’t know if posts on social media get to the top. I’m not sure if letters do. When I cancelled NYT, wapo, globe, I wrote to the CEOs. I doubt they were received. But if everyone wrote. …….

      Btw I have les respect for many right wing media sources, I just don’t subscribe to them because as everyone knows I may be left of center 🙂

      https://x.com/eweather13/status/1700519678152523988?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

  22. Thanks TK.

    I’ve been in the same camp on Lee that it has never really looked like any direct threat to the US East Coast, though obviously has been worth watching. But models now seem to be catching onto the meteorology of the situation.

    More notable is how rapidly the storm has weakened over the past 24-36 hours. I don’t think anyone saw that coming. Though I suspect it will probably get its act back together and end up with a secondary peak intensity, but not as strong as its initial peak. That would be in line with the NHC forecast.

  25. I have to head into my workplace to help out my boss with something. Then I’m heading to Hampton Beach for the seafood festival fireworks display assuming mother nature doesn’t have other plans. I’ll check back later…

  26. We had a quick visit with my son this morning at UMass Lowell. The weather has made for miserable dorm life. My son takes a cold shower in the morning and stays away until about midnight.

    Even worse than his situation is the mostly-freshman 18-story tower. It’s Fox Hall, if you are familiar. Some other college housing was repurposed leading to triple-occupancy in some of those rooms!

  27. At eastern CT state to watch my daughters field hockey and we keep getting quick downpours.

    And it’s about 80F with 50,000% humidity 🙂

    Good competitive game, no score at half with both teams having chances.

    2. Good luck to your daughter, Tom.

      I’ve decided to take my chances this afternoon and do a long bike ride. Biking is a bit easier than field hockey or running in this weather. But of course I might have to take off all of my clothes to feel the effects of any refreshing breeze, in which case I’ll be arrested for lewd conduct.

  30. On a non weather topic. Was just able to talk to my brother for the first time in a couple of days. He was ready to head to rehab Monday but insurance co denied…,sound familiar TK. Then Wednesday am he took a sharp turn for the worse. His nurse said she’d worried all day he would code. Too long a story but he is pulling out of it this am although heavily medicated. I’d sure appreciate thoughts and prayers that he continues to improve.

      1. Thanks. We have a very broken healthcare system when insurance focused override an individual’s team of doctors.

  37. Holy crap batman, the 12z euro operational run has gone bonkers, developing a new 200mb deeper trough sucking Lee back up here, at least close enough for rain shield!!@

    1. Clobber city LMAO !!

      You’re going to have so much fun with the models this winter JpDave !!

      I already can’t wait to hear how I know you’re going to feel. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. It’s funny, but it’s not.

        We’ve gone backwards in the last 10 years on lead time, when our population growth along the coast needs even more time.

    1. 962 mb, not too shabby. than would be a worse case scenario for the Cape and islands.

      Now we wait for the ensembles so we can say Never Mind@!!!
      or perhaps not????????

      2. Indeed.

        I might see them while we wait.

        The rain is letting up, but the field is too dangerous with water. Had to have been close to an inch in less than 15 minutes.

  40. Oh, I just saw the radar.

    We’re at the west end of that line of storms.

    All the way back to marshfield, about the way I got here.

    I do t know if it’s still there, but there was a dp front earlier with 60s on one side, 70s on the other.

    1. Thanks Joshua. Some of these studies are very curious to me as a mathematician.

      We could probably do a study that shows that it isn’t “worthwhile” having our teeth cleaned twice a year because of the people that are injured and killed while driving to and from the dentist’s office 🙂

  48. It’s nasty here in Sharon. Constant lightning and loud thunder. Approaching 1.5” of rain since it started around 3:30.

  49. Very dark and ominous here, though not much is actually happening.

    Delayed my bike ride, needless to say. I’ll venture out in 45 minutes.

    2. How can the operational run be so out of synch with the ensembles. I mean in this case it is night and day. The difference is humungous!!!

  52. Tom,
    did they get the game in or did they cancel. I see where Will Imantic is on the radar display and it is right in the thick of things.

  54. The 12z Euro may have a pressure of 967mb at landfall, but it only has sustained winds of 65 mph. It would be a tropical storm beginning its extratropical transition, not a Cat 3.

    It’s a moot point though, because in reality it’ll be 300-500 miles farther east.

  55. Blogservation of the day and more of a pet peeve. We’re constantly told that we can’t predict with any level of certainty more than 72 hours away but yet sometimes the experts here will make firm statements of certainty on things over a week out.

  56. So I been looking at what is happening with the EPS/EURO and other models along with what is happening real time.
    Lee is going slower than what was expected. This allows Margot to have more of an influence as well as an ULL These along with the High pressure, basically makes it impossible for us to say where this storm is going to go. Oh and add an additional tropical wave thats about to move off the coast of Africa as another player. So saying it is going to be way out at sea or hitting land is just stupid at this time. Saying it is not going to hit land is just as bad as saying its going to hit land this far out.

    1. Oh dear god that must have been rough! My kids had their first day of fall soccer and they barely made it through a half hour

      1. I have never seen rain falling with that same intensity for so long. It was crazy. No water issues though In the house thankfully.

  59. I apologize. I cannot recall who said it smelled like pines last night. My son said the amount of pines down in Carlyle was amazing.

  60. Thunder and torrential rain kept on in willimantic so they ended the game with 10 mins left.

    1-1, so, both teams get a point, evidently.

  61. A woman was struck by lightning while walking on Savin Hill beach in Dorchester just before 3:30 this afternoon. She was taken to BMC. Her condition is unknown.

  62. I wonder yesterday and today, what the cloud tops were ?

    By satellite, they looked at least 30,000 ft but I’m hedging they pushed 40k ft.

    Everything about the last 2 days have belonged about 10-15 degrees of latitude further south and in September, no less.

  64. The Holy Cross-BC football game was resumed at 5:30 this afternoon with BC leading 31-28 with less than 2 minutes to go. Holy Cross had the ball and marched downfield for the winning score but the HC QB fumbled the ball and BC recovered. BC ran out the clock and won the game 31-28.

    When the storm arrived, those in attendance were asked to seek shelter but the HC (visiting) fans refused and remained in their seats during the entire storm with all the thunder, lightning, winds and downpours all around them.

    Dedication…or STUPIDITY???

  68. The heavens keep unloading periodically somewhere in New England this summer on an almost daily basis. I’ve lived a pretty long time. Spent about two-thirds of my life here. I’ve never seen so many storms and deluges over a 75 day stretch. And it’s not close to stopping. In fact, it’s happening right now in parts of Western Massachusetts. I think there’s a very good chance periodic deluges are on the way for many communities in the coming days.

    And the never-ending humidity. That’s also not done with us for at least another 4 days. And if I was a betting man I think high levels of humidity will be with us for most of the rest of this month. Sure, a break or two. But I don’t sense anything autumnal in a sustained way soon. Hopefully I’m wrong.

    1. I just hope the Tom Brady halftime ceremony can take place as scheduled. I think there will be more widespread storms again today. Not to mention the game itself with lightning involved.

    2. This summer is just the the warm season version of the 2015 snow blitz.

      The humidity will take a break around Wednesday/Thursday when the big high builds in that will deflect Lee off to our east. It might come back toward the end of the following week.

      BTW, the GFS, FWIW, takes the wave just coming off of Africa and threatens the East Coast 2 weeks from now.

      1. I said the same thing to someone yesterday – 2015 snow pattern, warm-season version, just a little longer-lasting.

        Stable pattern: Where it is, it stays. When it gets interrupted, it goes back.

        GFS: “Great Fake Storms”

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