Sunday September 10 2023 Forecast (8:15AM)

268 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

A few adjustments are being made on this 5-day forecast update, but nothing major. The changes are that I am a little less optimistic about a nicer day Tuesday, but more optimistic about a nicer Thursday. We stay in the humid and unsettled pattern as one trough moves through the region today into Monday. With a lack of a good push of drier air we can’t clear out efficiently on Tuesday between that trough and its follow-up from the west, which brings more unsettled weather to our region into midweek. However it does look progressive enough to get east of our region and finally allow some much drier air from Canada to arrive via the Great Lakes Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the I-95 belt westward. Highs 78-85. DP near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. DP near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers/storms end, clouds remain, patchy fog forms. Lows 60-67. DP 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower or patch of coastal drizzle possible. Highs 70-77. DP 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon showers likely. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers ending. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. DP near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. DP falling through 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Hurricane Lee’s closest pass, well offshore, will be taking place early to mid period, stirring up big waves along the coast, otherwise we see dry weather here through the middle weekend of the month with pleasant late summer conditions. The next unsettled weather chance comes from a trough moving in from the west later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Drier trend with more northwesterly flow expected, along with more seasonable temperatures.

268 thoughts on “Sunday September 10 2023 Forecast (8:15AM)”

    1. I was in the water at Hampton Beach last night (not originally planned) and it was nice. And that’s the east side. 🙂

  2. TK, thank you.

    I should think we would see big waves from Lee, and not sure about this but rip currents too.

  4. Thanks TK.

    TK – Will there be a serious threat for downpours and storms during the game as well as the TB-12 halftime ceremony?

  5. Thanks, TK.

    I wasn’t on computer yesterday due to not feeling well and the strong thunderstorms we had that lasted for some time. The lightning and the loud thunder that was outrageously loud was astounding. We got some rain here but it was the thunder and lightning that shook our house. We lost power briefly. I cannot believe the amount of storms we have had this summer. Perhaps in the past we did.

    In any case, I am hoping that Vicki’s brother gets better soon and for anyone else who is not feeling well.

    Hoping we don’t get the hurricane – still interesting to read all the comments regarding the hurricane. Waiting for it to get a little closer as I like to look at the satellite images of hurricanes and watch its movements and try to guess what it will do.

  7. Thanks TK. Hoping for no thunder and downpours sitting over my area today. After the 3.5 inches yesterday, we need a little less today :).

    1. Lee is a shadow of its former self. true fish storm or so it appears .

      I’d like to know what that 12z euro run was all about yesterday??????

      Did you see the gfs bring another hurricane towards us coast late in the 6z run?

      1. I did.

        I think it’s the MJO and 200 mb layer with a map that offers that conditions overall atmospherically become more favorable for tropical development later in the month.

        So, I’d think more opportunities are coming.

    1. I love how he said “for now” 🙂 🙂 🙂
      It sure looks like a fish storm and likely to stay that way.
      Dosen’t hurt to continue watching in case there are some unforeseen late breaking developments.

      1. It seems to me to be irresponsible not to keep watching. We hear repeatedly That models are not reliable more than 72 hours out.

        1. We should never stop watching even when the confidence is pretty high that something is not going to be an impact…

          There is no 100% in weather prediction. 🙂

    1. I’m SICK TO DEATH of it!!!!!!

      My electric bill is going to be through the roof!!!
      Running those ACs is not cheap.

  12. I was fortunate to get a break in August only having to run my AC twice that month. This is not the case the first week of September.

    1. I’m seeing through October in our future. Only positive is because it is a hot house, it costs very little to heat. I’m thinking solar might be a good idea. My son in law is a bit unsure about it

    1. Sure is. And the heat pump we had installed has helped some with the cost of summer electricity. We were typically around 650 a month for summer months.

    1. I’m 75 with a 72 DP. If I could get up off my duff, I’d take rhe kestrel outside to get a more accurate measure. I don’t see that happening in the near future though 🙄

    1. Saw that. Right around the hospital where my brother is. He has a wall to wall window so I hope is enjoy the show. He is fascinated by weather also. He’s fairly heavily medicated but yesterday was reminiscing about hurricane Carol in 1954. Funny since he is my half brother and we were not raised together but only became close in our 30s that we have a bunch of things in common

      1. Wishing the best for your brother. I’m glad he has a wall-to-wall window, Being able to see outside is a blessing.

  18. Thank you, TK.

    If I’m seeing it correctly we’re on the boundary of a stalled front that won’t push through for a while. Different set-up from a cut-off low, but with several similar effects in terms of rather gloomy and periodically rainy or at least showery weather.

    Rode my bike yesterday. Can’t say it was fun dodging the rain showers, though they had mostly dissipated by the time I left my apartment. But then the soupy conditions made riding a bit of a chore.

  19. I was absolutely and inexcusably wrong in a post I made yesterday. I used a tweet by a weather person in CO criticizing another met on CNN. I should have researched the post he was referring to. The person he criticized is one I follow and know my daughter does also. And not only is he fair and excellent but the segment faulted by the guy in CO Makes perfect sense to me. It is Mike on Mikes Weather Page who was criticized. I don’t know his full name. But I found him through Eric quite a while ago

    Again. I sincerely apologize.

  21. This is still one of my favorite weather apps because it has some entertainment value.

    App: Windy.com
    1) go to : https://www.windy.com/?42.468,-70.947,5
    2) choose your model of choice in lower right corner
    3) choose on right side: clouds, wind, temp, rain, etc.
    4) use (or animate) slider at bottom for date of interest

    I’m using it now to look at wave “intensity” towards 9/15.

    2. Love windy. It was you who introduced me to it a bit ago, and I not only saved it but managed to remember where I saved it

  26. 3 recent recon passes near/through the center have recorded around 105 kt flight level winds.

    Still shear, but there’s been some excellent rotating of convection around the center this morning.

  28. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_gefs_12z.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/13L_gefs_00z.png

    Yesterday GEFS 12z ensembles, todays 00z ensembles.

    The mean moves westward and there’s a fair amount of pasta maybe a couple hundred miles offshore.

    Still allowing, in my mind, for a track close enough to bring storm force gusts to the outer Cape and gale force gusts to the immediate eastern Mass coast, along with some rain bands that could make it back to eastern Mass.

    The ensembles don’t show that hard right turn, it’s more of a NNE track. Recent Franklin took a much more right turn than these ensembles project.

    1. In fact, at 00z, I believe it’s true that some ensembles and it’s mean ensemble track is now WEST of the 00z op run track.

  29. Yesterday, a woman who was walking her dog was struck by lightning along Savin Hill Beach in Dorchester around 3:30 or so. There was a burn wound on her chest and an exit wound on her lower back.

    Last update I heard was that she is in serious/critical condition at BMC.

    1. The 12z run is west and coming in line with its 00z run ensembles.

      The current slow speed, I think, is going to give Lee seperation from this early week trof.

  31. Interested to see those 12z GEFS ensembles now.

    Do they stay consistent and have a mean track close to the 00z GEFS ensembles and 12z GFS op run track ?

  33. The central Atlantic ridge, I believe, is too far east to push Lee back west, as it appears to turn north, before it reaches 71W longitude.

    But, it’s there enough to NOT allow Lee to pack a big right hand turn once it’s northwest of Bermuda. The central Atlantic ridge becomes the big player because this early eeek trof lifts out before fully directing Lee away.

    This is the biggest reason I support something like the 12z GfS and 00z GEFS ensemble mean track.

    Not 500 miles southeast, but maybe 200 miles southeast to east.

    A miss, but not a huge miss.

    2. Its not just about the ridge, I think the ULL that is going to be out there might have an impact on track along with the trough.

    1. GDPS is almost 2 degrees farther West.
      Not liking these trends. Not much farther West for
      a real impact to Eastern SNE.

      Now what will the ensembles show and almost more importantly, what will the Euro and its ensembles show.

      This is truly getting more interesting.

      1. I truly believe it’s the slow movement of Lee now and the models are seeing that this lead trof that gives us rain chances Monday to Wednesday is now going to nudge Lee as far northeast as what looked the last 2 days.

          1. Right. I find this absolutely fascinating watching this all play out. Likely still a miss, a closer miss perhaps, but still a miss. However, a hit for Eastern SNE is still on the table, I do believe. I don’t the chances are zero. It is something North of 0, how far North is tough to determine.

      1. Any time. 🙂

        Waiting on that damn Euro and I may be out running errands while all of that data comes out. )!@(*#()&*!@()*#()!*@)(#*)

  36. Which might mean the humidity drop off might be brief Thursday.

    Even a couple hundred miles offshore, a potential brief NE wind or some rain band retrograding west will saturate the boundary layer and take those 50s Thursday dps probably right back into at least the 60s.

    1. Sure !

      This week after school has been hectic.

      On the run like crazy and it’s caught up to me.

      Lying here with a soar throat and am run down, so, I’m watching the models before going back to sleep soon.

  38. I’ll tell you, the fall forecasts I saw from accuweather and TWC for a cool northeast September are likely to fail miserably as there’s signal for more warmth mid month.

    If that happens, we’d need to be 10F + below avg the 2nd half of the month to offset what the anomalies likely will be by mid month.

  41. I believe this track speed correlation is playing out.

    For example, the ukmet is further east, but, it has Lee tracking north more quickly.

    I believe the mean of the 12z GEFS ensemble is slightly further east than it’s 00z run, but again, it also looks like the 12z brings Lee a little further north slightly more quickly.

    I think lees forward speed the next 36-48 hrs is critical. Faster, further east of us, slower, something closer to the northeast and Maritimes.

    2. i want to compare ensemble means on Tropical Tid Bits.
      It will be a while before that is available.

      Regardless, this thing is just too close to write off.
      Sure, still likely to be off shore, but it is awfully close.

  44. Thanks TK.

    Pitch black and absolutely pouring here again in Coventry with thunder. Already up to 1.10″ and increasing at a rate of 0.1″ per minute. We are going to the Patriots game later and I am afraid we are going to get drenched.

    Vicki, I hope your brother is doing better.

    Tom, sorry you got caught in the storms down here yesterday. You were very close to us…Willimantic (Windham) is the next town south of us. About 15 min away.

    1. Yes, saw that on maps 🙂

      That’s ok. Enjoyed the area very much !

      First time I had taken a ride on rte 6 through RI and eastern CT.

      1. Downtown Willimantic is a bit rough but yes, it is a pretty ride through the eastern part of the state towards RI.

  46. Resigned to the fact that it’s likely to rain at almost any given moment. Just did shopping on foot and got pretty soaked. It wasn’t heavy rain. But when you’re walking about a mile with groceries the rain seeps through.

  49. Am at barn with granddaughter. It is just shy if schools and Sutton center. She’ll try to get in a bareback ride. Clouds building. CT looks like a mess.

    Wearing my MAC shirt and hope he starts. Am looking forward to celebrating Brady. Got teriyaki wings marinating, Buffalo tenders and potato skins on the menu.

  51. Another 1.4 inches in 40 mins to add to the 3.56 from yesterday. I need it stop now! More thunder and lightning too!

  52. To be a sports pundit in the United States is hard work. I’m not kidding. You have to know A LOT more than any sports pundit in, say, Europe. Because it’s the only major sport over there and due to the simplicity of soccer, which includes the incredibly simple rules of the game but also much less complicated sets of personnel regulations imposed by the leagues (eg, no salary cap or restructuring of contracts, comparatively few roster regulations), the talking heads practically only discuss the games.

    Here, on the other hand, it’s a very different story. The Matt Corral and Bailey Zappe saga is Exhibit A. You kind of have to be the equivalent of a tax attorney pouring over the ins and outs of IRS documentation to fully understand what’s going on. When Zappe got cut there was and is so much more to it than him being released. There’s the making it through waivers element, getting placed on the practice squad component and hthen returning to the 53-man roster. None of it is straightforward. It gets far more complicated with Corral. He got placed on the “exempt/left squad” list. When a player leaves a team without notice, the NFL allows teams to place them on a “reserve/did not report” list (more confusing terminology). Further, according to the league, “players who have left their team or stopped playing NFL football but have yet to submit retirement papers … do not count against a team’s roster limit or its salary cap.” And in yet another weird rule the league has, “being placed on this list also means another team cannot claim Corral off waivers.”

    This feels a bit like the ending to the old “Soap” sitcom: “Confused, you won’t be after the episode of Soap.” Well, needless to say, nothing really clears up. It’s kind of an endless saga, a true soap opera, in the NFL, from the combine to the intricately complex draft (including all the various trade scenarios) to free agent signings to camps to roster cuts. While the games are important, it’s the intrigue surrounding the rest of it that keeps us interested all year long.

  53. Pouring here now. But we have not had any rain to speak if past couple of days. So sorry for areas that are getting a double whammie. And sorry for the celebration at Gillette.

  55. Euro east but last few frames, not truly letting Lee escape northeast or eastward.

    Certainly discounted yesterdays 12z run completely and I think this is too far east.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the ensemble avg is slightly west of this op run track.

    1. It’s pretty much the same (op vs ens mean). This is, IMO, the best run of this model with regard to the actual meteorology of the situation taking into account how far away from it we still are. In other words, it represents to me the most likely scenario.

      2. I was standing in a line at CVS when I tried to post that.
        I guess I grabbed the wrong saved file. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. The lightning threat is going down there. That’s shifting eastward on an axis near the front edge of the rain area.

    2. Just in time for the game.
      My brother sold his season tickets for this game and opted to watch home & dry. 🙂 Good idea.

      1. Nice! 2nd half looks to trend drier with time it seems. 1.52 here today so far, so just over 5 inches over the two days with more to come. Most of that coming down in a total of 2 1/2 hours or so.

  60. Here’s a friendly reminder: Don’t use the NAM for tropical cyclone forecasting. It’s going to show Lee moving much too far west before any kind of turn.

    Now that it’s coming into that range of being “visible” on the model grid, it should be noted.

  63. I couldn’r stomach watching any more of the pats game.
    The play was disgusting.

    We’re just going to have dinner.

        1. They weren’t airing it until after the game on 5th quarter and the website looks to have crashed to watch on patriots.com. How did you see.

  64. Down by 2 points and halftime against one of the best teams in the league yet half the fan-base has already written them off (based on the posts I’ve been seeing). Ciao “fans”. Go find another team. We don’t want you back. 😉

    2. Lol. They are going to honor him 8n the offseason in a 6-12-2024 celebration they said on CBS, as part of inducting him into the Patriots Hall of Fame. 6 for his number of rings and 12 for his number.

          2. I think that scenario has 0.00000000001% chance of happening.

            The point is …… it doesn’t add another tally to the OTS enough column.

              1. Yeah 🙂

                No eastern us cutoff low but it seems to almost form a cutoff underneath us that sucks it in. No, I can’t buy what this showed.

                But, I do think it can be a sign that whatever Lee is at our latitude, it’s not going to be too far to our southeast.

  67. Nah, this is were TK says “ensembles, not run-to-run op models, other than for entertainment value”. 😉

  73. Well, the Pats made it a game and without some errors “could” have won this game. They can play with the elite teams, so they
    “should” be OK this year. 🙂

    Glad we gave the game another chance. 🙂

    1. Even if you see that it just doesn’t suddenly mean it’s right. You look at several runs and watch for trends, not sudden jumps. Those are almost never indicative of anything that will come to fruition.

      1. Of course, I know that. The trends are looking worse and worse. Can’t deny that. 🙂

        We shall see. Certainly needs to be watched.

          1. That’s fine. I think it comes more West than you currently think. But I am NOT degreed in Meteorology, just Math and Physics. 🙂

            We’ll have more fun with this yet.

    1. 5PM NHC discussion has Lee getting back to 140 mph.

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
      12H 11/0600Z 22.7N 62.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
      24H 11/1800Z 23.3N 63.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
      36H 12/0600Z 23.8N 65.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
      48H 12/1800Z 24.2N 66.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
      60H 13/0600Z 24.7N 67.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
      72H 13/1800Z 25.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
      96H 14/1800Z 28.9N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
      120H 15/1800Z 33.6N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

  78. Agree with Vicki on two counts: 1. This was an entertaining game in spite of the loss; 2. I could do without the announcers. In fact, I muted it at a certain point. I really can’t stand them.

    Exciting to see teams going for it so often on 4th down, but there were some questionable decisions by both teams.

    1. I had trouble hearing the announcers over the din of the crowd!
      NOT enjoyable at all.

      The game, on the other hand, was entertaining after the bull shit of the 1st quarter.

      The pats can play WITH ANYONE!!!!

  80. What I think we learned today:

    1) the incoming trof is likely to lift without tugging Lee as far east as first thought

    2) now, we’re seeing the models current idea of what can happen to Lee after the trof lifts

    BUT …..

    There will probably be adjustments to the flow after the trof lifts and so, I only feel more confident that this first trof doesn’t affect Lee as much as we first thought.

    After that, I think we still need to see more days of info for Lee say ……. when it’s out over the ocean, we’ll east of, oh ……… Georgia/SC, NC, etc

    1. Agreed, but the door has been at least cracked open. 🙂
      To me, today had some dramatic developments.
      Of course, they could all be dashed to all hell tomorrow. 🙂

      I wish we had new runs EVERY HOUR!!!!!

          1. I admire your enthusiasm. I’ll say that. 🙂
            I think you missed your calling as a YouTube star with a weather and computer model commentary channel. 😉

    2. The NHC Hurricane models are beginning to get to the range where they give hints to what Lee might do up this way.

      1. I believe ALL models were closer today than yesterday.
        The most dramatic was the GFS and the ICON. The GDPS and the Euro, only a little closer, but still closer.

  81. Here are a couple of charts from the Hurricane model HAFS-A

    Surface at 126 hours from run time (18Z)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsa-p&region=13L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2023091018&fh=120

    200 mb winds, same time

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsa-p&region=13L&pkg=uv200&runtime=2023091018&fh=120

    Looks to me like this could be sucked NNW to over or just off of Cape Cod. IN other words, TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT.

  82. I think that the 0Z Euro will be very telling.

    It will probably end up 500 miles off shore. 🙂
    I seriously don’t think so. I would expect the status quo or
    perhaps a very slight tic either West or East 🙂

    We shall see between 2 and 3 AM tomorrow morning. 🙂
    NOT staying up for it, but it will be the FIRST thing I look at in the morning. 🙂

    2. Enjoy. JPD if you do get to the end of suits, I think I can add yiu to my peacock so you can watch season 9. It was my favorite season

      1. thanks. My wife has gotten into it. It’s pretty entertaining.
        I can’t believe the dirty deeds happening all of the time.
        We’ll figure out how to watch season 9. Worse case I get Peacock for one month and cancel. 🙂

    1. Best case, Lee stays off shore, but likely closer than many thought. Worse case, well we won’t go there.

      Watch, they’ll be some development that will shove Lee 600-700 miles off shore. Everything up to know was to suck us in and keep us entertained. 🙂

      I’m ready for it.

      1. No one can question that wehave not been entertained. Thank you again Dave and Tom and I know JJ and north have been adding fun to the conversation also. Great blog

        1. I enjoy the bleep out of ALL storm watching, Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn. I’d be lost without this blog.

        1. A very strong one. At worse it would be a low end Cat 2 or a Cat 1. At best it would be a strong tropical storm or a decent Extra Tropical N’oreaster.

          But if it stays off shore, it doesn’t matter what it is.

        2. It should be in the process of transition as it goes by our latitude, but the water’s been pretty warm out there so even that can be slightly delayed, but that would potentially keep the wind field tighter. The expansion usually takes place with the transition to post-tropical.

  86. When hurricanes or storms more generally occur over the ocean we call them “fish storms.” My question is, strong storms must to some degree still cause a lot of habitat disruption among fishes and whales, for that matter.

  87. Always interesting to see how linguini models/plots change from run to run.

    As someone who has studied economic forecasting I know that models can change, but generally on a weekly or monthly basis. certainly not on a 6-hour basis. Of course this has to do with the continuous data coming in for weather models, as opposed to mostly discrete periodic data for economic models.

    1. Hahahaahha. Love linguini models. And could it be because weather changes by the minute unlike numbers. Or do they?

  88. Except for some early mistakes I think the pats had a good game ( not mistake free ) but once Mack got settled I think he had a decent game . Unfortunately # 2 will not be easy even at home as Miami had a big win today . Let’s see how they handle week # 2 after todays tough loss .

  91. Thoughts on the Patriots.
    Defense
    1. Overall good
    2. Still see the Patriots weakness are mobile duel threat QBs
    3. Secondary at times played to soft, several times in which they might have had more interceptions

    Offense.
    1. Mac Jones did good, most of those drops were because of his recievers having butterfingers when it was raining.
    2. Hunter Henry, Elliott, Stevenson, and KB
    3. Boutte showed promise but man put your darn feet down.
    4. That O-Line doesn’t give Mac Jones all that much time.

    If I was bill I would be soaking up those balls and even getting the recievers soaking wet while at practice because of all the drop balls

      1. Poor Nova Scotia. Their location is nowhere near the tropics or Bermuda or the SE USA and yet, they usually end up bearing the brunt of much of the tropical activity. I would be curious as to how they compare to Bermuda in terms of “landfall”.

        1. Well, since Bermuda covers about 1% of the landmass that Nova Scotia does, that’s not exactly a fair comparison. Also, most of the storms that make it to Atlantic Canada are usually extratropical or undergoing extratropical transition.

        2. They bear the brunt of transitioning storms because that’s where the western Atlantic storms often end up tracking. It’s just how the basin is and the geography around it. It’s always been that way, but most of their storms are, as mentioned, transitioning or already transitioned and are just windy rainstorms. They get plenty of those and can happen year-round, ‘cept the cold season ones are often with snow. 🙂

          As mentioned, with Bermuda being only 1% the size of NS, it’s not really a scientifically fair comparison even without taking into account tropical vs non-tropical. Nova Scotia has been impacted by storms that were still considered tropical, but many more that were transitioning or already post-tropical. I don’t have time to pick out the storms that have hit NS as still tropical, but there have been a 29 hurricanes to make landfall in all of Canada (west – which is extremely rare – and east – which is more common) since 1950. Maybe SAK the stats guy can dig up the NS tropical landfalls, but it’s certainly much less than 29 we know. I believe there have been 11 direct hurricane landfalls on Bermuda since 1951, but again it’s IMPORTANT TO NOTE that with Bermuda being 1% the size of Nova Scotia, I’m no expert math guy but your odds of taking a direct hit on Bermuda in a given location are much higher. And since Bermuda is so small anyway, a direct hit anywhere on the island is pretty much a direct hit on the entire island. 😉

  96. So, we did the windshield wiper left yesterday.

    I’m thinking the wipers are on and are probably headed somewhat back to the right today as the models get some new data on what the 500 mb flow will look like after this first trof lifts out.

    I hope it’s back to the right a bit because the current scenario would really whip the ocean up and combined with a new moon, would cause a good bit of coastal erosion and perhaps some flooding.

    I’m pretty sure the Jan 2018 low had a mid 960s pressure and wasn’t too far from the 00z op runs track, with a similar pressure and that was good for a 4 ft storm surge with mostly N winds.

    1. I just compared the last 3 Euro runs and each one got a little bit
      closer to the coast. Now we’ll see what the 12Z run brings.

      Still looks like an off shore solution, but how far off shore is the question. Do the outer rain bands get in here or not and as you describe above, surge and wave action.

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