Thursday September 14 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)

149 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A cold front will complete its trip across our region by moving offshore later this morning / midday, putting an end to the last of the showers currently (as of 7 a.m.) over far southeastern MA. While some other clouds may stream across the sky from southwest to northeast in the mid and upper level winds behind the front, the balance of the day is going to feature fair weather, mild air, and the arrival of much lower humidity. Ah! This drier air mass will hang around for a while too, and will actually be a player to some degree in our Saturday forecast, regarding Lee’s passage. First, we’ll enjoy a nice day on Friday as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes and sends us nice Canadian air on a northwesterly wind. As this happens, Hurricane Lee will be making its way northward, accelerating, and weakening, but also expanding in size as it begins the process of tropical to post-tropical transition. Lee will still be at hurricane strength on Friday and on its projected path it will make its closest pass to our region during the first two thirds of the day Saturday, the center still well offshore. An interaction with a low pressure trough to our west will give Lee’s path a little wiggle to the west, just enough to bring its expanded wind field into our area, of course strongest along the coast, especially Cape Cod. The cloud shield associated with Lee will already have started to spread north and northwest into our region later Friday, reaching its maximum Saturday morning to midday. This is also when Lee’s rain shield has the greatest chance of impacting the region. The most likely location to see any appreciable rainfall is Cape Cod. While the rain shield may make its way across the coastal plain and possibly as far as the I-95 and maybe even briefly the I-495 belts, it will also be battling the aforementioned dry air in place over our region, which will eat away at the western edge of it. Essentially, rainfall from Lee will be a non-factor except for on Cape Cod. The other more important factor, already ongoing and continuing through Saturday, will be the rough surf and large ocean swells along the coastline. As previously mentioned, use caution if you have plans that take you sea-side or into the coastal waters during the next few days, through the weekend. Although by Sunday and definitely Monday these conditions will be subsiding. My expectation for Lee is that he will have weakened to a tropical storm during the transition to post-tropical while passing our latitude and make a landfall as an “almost” post-tropical storm on the western side of Nova Scotia later Saturday, before heading off through Atlantic Canada as a gusty wind and rain storm. Keep in mind that well-in-advance nice sunset prediction for our region late Saturday. We may be able to add Friday to that prediction depending on the advancing cloud shield ahead of Lee. But at least one of those is going to produce nicely. Hold me to it! Our weather improves quickly Saturday evening and is stellar for Sunday with fair weather, low humidity, and a tolerable breeze. A trough from the west moves in for Monday with more clouds and the chance of some rainfall again in the region, but at this time it does not look like a heavy rainfall event.

TODAY: Clouds and showers linger in the Cape Cod region for a while this morning. Otherwise, a sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. DP falling 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. DP ~ 50. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun, but clouds increasing later in the day from southeast to northwest. Highs 68-75. DP ~ 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives Cape Cod. Lows 57-64. DP lower-middle 50s rising to near 60 Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday including rain likely Cape Cod and a chance of rain eastern MA & NH Seacoast, then increasing sun especially western areas during the afternoon and maybe into eastern areas later on. Highs 66-73. DP middle 50s to lower 60s, highest coast, falling again later. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-35 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod, including higher gusts through midday, diminishing gradually thereafter.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. DP falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. DP 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. DP upper 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. DP rising to near 60. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

High pressure establishes control as we count down the final days of summer to the arrival of Autumn (equinox September 23) with a long stretch of mainly fair weather and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

While lower confidence further out, the indications are for high pressure to be dominant with a mainly dry pattern and temperatures near to above normal.

149 thoughts on “Thursday September 14 2023 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  7. Thanks TK. Glad to see Lee pass offshore and spare major population centers. Serious winds and storms up in NSC and Downeast Maine.

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2023091409&fh=48

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2023091409&fh=57

    I think this reveals the continuing concern for flooding at high tide.

    I would say “Lee” moves 60-100 miles in 9 hrs.

    That’s an awful long time for that fetch of an ocean to receive probably sustained 40-60 knot winds for that long. In a more typical Long Island Express, it might receive 80-100 knot winds but for only 3-5 hrs.

    The waves making it to shore will be massive.

    High tide Saturday around 1pm. Its around 10 ft.

  11. Thanks TK. Early thoughts on rainfall amounts for Monday? Concerned about any additional rainfall here after the close to 13 inches over the past week and we are thinking about going to the Big E in Springfield for my first time there!

    2. Older daughter heading to big E Friday. Mostly for horse shows but also for food and games. Enjoy. It is always a lot of fun.

  13. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2023091400&fh=29&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2023091412&fh=17&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    00z then 12z HRRR

    On the 00z run, the 576 dm line is on the south coast.

    On the 12z run, the 576 dm line is Hartford, Providence and Plymouth, so say a 30 mile quicker retreat of the trof to the north on this run.

    Then, that cutoff line in the ocean is nice because on the 00z run, you really cant see Lee’s center but on the 12z run, you can see more of it, which means it is running a little bit north and west on this run.

    The depth and retreat of this trof is so important to Lee’s path.

    Hopefully it doesn’t lift out quicker in the final 48 hrs here than modeled up to 00z today and we get a resulting wiper left on the models.

      1. By the time we get to hour 34 on the 12Z HRRR, it is about the same as it was on the 0Z, if not a tiny bit East.

        1. I was mistaken. I had to be more careful where I placed the mouse.

          At 35 hours, it is clearly a little bit more West AND South of
          there it was at 0Z

          Looks like it will come a bit closer to the coast.

          Of course, this is 1 run of 1 model.

    1. I will admit that I’ll miss following Lee. You, Tom, JJ, North, Mark have done an awesome job not only with links but with explanations for those of us…that’s me…..who would not understand otherwise

  21. We’re in the Bart Simpson critical zone. DO NOT make the mistake of letting the NAM influence you on Lee. 🙂

    NHC track is exactly as I’d forecast myself.

    2. If it wasn’t for that NW jog on its approach to SNE even the Cape would be totally in the clear of its wind and rain shield.

    2. Figuring winds as you forecasted along with higher than normal surf and possibly rip currents. However, not figuring on any storm surge whatsoever at least in our area. I am not sure how many rainy Saturdays we have had this summer … seems like a lot.

  23. Boston Mayor Michelle Woo is giving a press conference and she just announced up to 4” of rain expected for the city. She is reading from a bunch of 3×5 cards.

      1. IF that!!!

        Where the bleepity bleep bleep is she getting that information?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    2. Do we know the source of that graphic? Couldn’t have come from a trusted media source in the New England area.

    2. They kind of have to cover it at this point. Even wind gusts around 25 MPH take down limbs on old trees and can even topple trees that are already compromised and sitting in saturated ground.

      There will be a few power outages – but I suspect not many.

    3. Philip you will not have any issues at all . It will probably be a pretty decent day with a slight wind

      2. A guy I work with said they may go after the Brewers former GM, as he had to sit out last year because he was under contract still. They were quite competitive under him for several seasons.

  35. Interesting…
    18Z HRRR wants to give Boston at least 10+ hours of steady rain.
    Still raining at hour 48 on the run.

    Some maps

    Start

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023091418&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Middle

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023091418&fh=44&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    End – hour 48

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023091418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total rain (not complete)

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023091418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    As far as I know this is the ONLY model projecting this.
    Given our history with the HRRR and I have no idea
    how it handles hurricanes, I’d say it is totally INTOXICATED!!!

    1. Problem will be overcoming dry air, which model may not be properly accounting for. I know TK has mentioned this before. This said, despite the storm being far off shore it can produce precipitation at the coast. Remember March 2013.

      1. I get that. but even so, it is projected to be much closer than others. I think it is out to lunch, Unless it isn’t…….

    1. I get the idea this was created by someone not living in New England and they are looking at the most extreme western solution and mapping that with no feel for how our terrain and geographic layout affects the wind up here.

      Maybe 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  37. It’s remarkable the Sox hung around until August. A tribute to Cora and several players who excelled.

    Chaim Bloom, however, was a bad fit and a terrible hire. He’s a nice person. Intelligent, too. But way in over his head. His moves and non-moves were costly for this team in the present and future. Regarding the farm system, I follow it carefully. It does not impress me. That includes Marcelo Meyer. Overrated minor league system and a major league team that is rudderless and relatively low on talent. It is the worst-constructed Red Sox team that I can remember. Certainly the worst team defensively. Lopsided and very inconsistent lineup. Wretched starting pitching. The 1983 and 1997 teams weren’t good either, but there was a palpable future.

      1. The outflow is tremendous on the northern side, isn’t it ?

        I’ve seen a few satellite simulations where the western edge of the cirrus makes it to Albany around Lee’s approach, even with the rain shield struggling to make it to our coastline.

  40. Weather today is idyllic. Late summer September day. We need more of these, but at least this one’s in the books.

    But there is so much water out there that the grassy ground is very soggy. One day of sun isn’t enough to dry things out. It’s so wet that I just had a mud bath. It was unintentional. I was running across the grassy oval in front of the Hatch Shell thinking it was dry. It looked dry and the sun was shining brightly. Well, the ground was far from dry. It got slippery and muddy fast. I slipped and fell onto the muddy surface. As I walked across the Fiedler pedestrian bridge I’m sure people wondered what happened to that person. Does he think he’s a kid again, playing in puddles.
    .

  41. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA9-3213A-LEE.png

    This is good ! High altitude mission on going. Data into 00z models.

    I like that pass north and northeast of Lee. The plane is at around 40,000 ft.

    I’m confident Lee tracks well east of us.

    I just want to see that 00z suite overnight and make sure 66W Longitude doesn’t trend into 67W or at worst 68W. 68W is still 3 degrees of longitude west of Boston or approx 200 miles.

    At 67 to 68W, the HRRR solution would be more in play.

        1. Yup, 5 times! Many memorable moments, to be sure.
          Took the kids once which was really nice.

          My son and I were popping Portuguese Man O War!!
          They’d float by in water and we’d Slap our hand powerfully on top of them and they would literally pop. I had a blast doing that. Yes I know their sting can be very painful. We did NOT have that experience. 🙂 Probably rather foolish of me.

  44. Noticed the high cirrus clouds on my run. May account for why I fell on the grassy oval at the Esplanade (in front of the Hatch Shell). I was looking up at the sky and didn’t notice the puddles.

  45. David Williams has hoisted a Breezy Saturday Watch for my area. I’ll take it!

    We hiked in Duxbury today. It was perfect weather.

  48. Question. Know of individuals who are located about 30 miles from where Lee is expected to make NS landfall. Their house is 80’ above high tide mark but they are worried about winds

    Does anyone have a rough idea of winds in that area. Thank you

    1. Wow. I don’t remember having so many in one year. Ellis road is on the other side of the center of town. I am sure we just missed it by half a mile went it went back up, as the couplet went by my side of town on the velocity scan right near us.

  52. What the heck is the blue one going over the cape after leaving the mid-Atlantic. Is that Monday’s rain producer?

    2. That’s my guess. It was probably another low center shown on the UKMET and whoever made the map forgot to clip it out

  53. BTW, that Lee Power Outage Map posted on Mikes Weather Page 24 hours ago was from “Fox Weather”. He had tweeted that out yesterday. Or should I say…..”X’ed it out”

  55. My daughter is flying from DC to Boston tomorrow night. Do you think there will be delays/problems with the flight? Thanks.

    1. I don’t think she will have to worry about it. Winds at Logan are only projected to be around 15mph tomorrow night per the NWS hourly forecast.

    2. It should be okay. There might be a little bit of limitation on the landing but not enough to cause big issues.

      And other places are not generally going to be in the process of being impacted by the storm since it will be over the water.

        1. I have been able to read messages by expanding notifications.

          Thanks! Techie fix tomorrow.

          I also have an app that allows me to reset the blog if there is a problem and that isn’t working either. 🙁

      2. I don’t even think south shore will have any issues . I’m not putting anything away or taking any precautions

      1. Thanks. what are your thoughts for my area fro Monday? Euro wants higher totals with over an inch. GFS less than half an inch.

        1. Doesn’t look like the type of system that produces big totals. Earlier this week we had the “perfect” setup of a stalled frontal boundary and a series of disturbances that maximized lift and wrung out a very moist atmosphere. The Monday system will be a far, far cry from that. Don’t see any “big” rain events for some time.

  58. In eastern Marshfield, we have a N breeze, I believe it’s at 12mph, gusting to 20 per the ob at the nearby airport.

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