Saturday September 16 2023 Forecast (8:16AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Lee is now a post-tropical cyclone as of 5 a.m. with maximum sustained winds around the center still at category 1 hurricane level (80 MPH). Lee will continue to weaken but remains a powerful storm as it approaches Nova Scotia on a northward track where landfall will take place near or just west of Argyle today. Thereafter, Lee curves back to the northeast and accelerates through Atlantic Canada. For us, we have a windy and in some areas wet start to the day. The steadiest rain band worked from the coastal plain in to the I-495 belt overnight, with the heaviest rainfall over Cape Cod. This rain band, the only one to impact the area, is already in the process of starting to decay as Lee now moves away, and dry air continues to erode the rain band. With surface dew points ranging from the middle 40s in the western portion of the WHW forecast area to the middle 50s along the coast, you can see that Lee’s rain is indeed fighting rather dry air in place. Surface temperatures are mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s (a few middle 60s over Cape Cod area) as of early morning, and combined with a gusty north to northwest wind, it doesn’t feel “tropical” at all, but rather autumnal – like it would during the passage of a coastal or offshore storm during the autumn (yes it’s still technically summer, but close enough). Anyway, the worst of our weather is now, as I write and post this update. From here on, improvement, while starting slowly, will happen steadily as we move through the day and this evening, with first the rain band eroding and departing northeastward, and then the clouds thinning and breaking basically from southwest to northeast, and most areas will see sun later. That colorful sunset that I prognosticated can take place if there are still enough clouds in the sky for the setting sun to shine onto the bottom of, much like the region saw last evening. I do think it’s a strong possibility. Later tonight the clouds vanish, and we are set up for a very nice day on Sunday, the final weekend day of astronomical summer, with plenty of sunshine, some decorative fair weather clouds, warm air but low humidity, and a pleasant breeze. But as has been the theme for so much of the summer, that doesn’t last long, as the next trough swings in from the west Monday with another showery day. With ground still somewhat saturated and some areas still recovering from recent severe flash flooding, it should be noted that the rainfall from Monday’s system can be enough to result in some additional flooding, but I expect that it would be far less severe than the event that preceded it by 1 week. High pressure builds toward the region Tuesday and Wednesday with fair, dry weather returning.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday including rain likely Cape Cod and a chance of rain eastern MA & NH Seacoast, then increasing sun especially western areas during the afternoon and maybe into eastern areas later on. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25 MPH or higher inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts 35 MPH or higher coastal plain, and 25-35 MPH with gusts 45 MPH or higher immediate coast, strongest gusts Cape Cod and Nantucket as well as tip of Cape Ann, gradually diminishing in all areas afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. Wind variable becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Breaking clouds overnight with patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather with fair weather through the day of the autumnal equinox on September 23. The end of the period may turn unsettled with the arrival of moisture from the south bringing clouds and a rain chance.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Overall a dry pattern with high pressure in control, but a disturbance from the west may bring the next shower chance before the end of this period. Temperatures near to above normal.

64 thoughts on “Saturday September 16 2023 Forecast (8:16AM)”

      1. I don’t buy the ECMWF really at all because I think it already is wrong by a significant amount on Lee’s track just hours into the run, which will throw off pretty much everything else. Around the net I’ve still seen a lot of people referring to the European Model as the “King”. No. It’s not. It’s been so-so, and believe it or not the GFS that I have often trashed since its failed upgrade, while not stellar either, has done a better job of late.

        1. Excellent point in opening sentence !

          And yes, the euro used to be the Tom Brady Patriots and is now the post Brady Patriots 🙂 🙂 🙂

  8. There’s been some rain here in Boston. But because I was expecting 4 inches … I’ve called the mayor’s office for an explanation.

    1. Yes, agree.

      I like Wu. Not everything about her (she’s more left than I am, for example). But her approach is generally a breath of fresh air in the rather stale politics of Boston City Hall.

      On the storm, she just wasn’t informed well. I certainly don’t expect her to be a WHW follower.

  13. Wind gusts are unimpressive enough that NWS doesn’t even have a list of reports to put out yet. Only Chatham, Provincetown, and Nantucket so far gusting into TS range from what I’ve seen.

    Power outages to about 2,900 people in MA (as of 2 hours ago).

  15. Had higher wind gusts yesterday morning. But it is raining lightly and I know kestrel is water resistant but don’t want to leave out long

  17. Jazz / funk fans, if you never heard any of Prince’s side projects, this one is worth a listen.

    In 1987, Prince, along with musician Eric Leeds (wind instruments) and a couple members of his band, recorded a couple albums under the name “Madhouse”. The first one was called “8” and this one is “16”. The first album had 8 tracks, titled “One”, “Two”, “Three”, “Four”, “Five”, “Six”, “Seven”, and “Eight”. The next album continued the theme with 8 more tracks from “Nine” to “Sixteen”. Here’s the second album. The first is also available on YouTube (warning, it has a few suggestive sound bites in it, so listen with caution around any children if you do). This particular album doesn’t have that warning attached to it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Z6bKv9Fxk

  20. So far the only coastal flooding report that I have seen is some flooding on Easy Street in Nantucket. High tide for the 2nd of the two is right now and I suspect there will be few or no reports added to it we’ve already seen.

    1. Have not seen any at humarock on FB. Or brant rock. I’d think they might be a couple of the barometers since both flood in certain areas if you look at them cross eyed

  24. It’s tempting to say that the models are overestimating the rain for Monday (except the NAM), but given how nearly every single event since June has overperformed, I’m not so sure.

    As for the thing that the GFS develops off the Southeast coast next weekend – it’s not tropical. Maybe a hybrid, but looking at the GFS, it’s not warm core, and it develops under an upper-level low. However, I’ve already seen people on Twitter talking about the “Tropical Storm that the GFS brings into the Carolinas next weekend”

  25. With Lee fading away, what is a good rain estimate for Monday in metro west? Love to string a few sunny days together. Thanks.

  28. DB, I was thinking the same thing. A string of nice sunny days would be nice. I do think it’s on the way after Monday. Hopefully then things can dry out a bit. I noticed on my run today that despite the limited rainfall this morning what little fell made more puddles on the jogging (pedestrian) paths.

    Looking ahead, after the 3-day sunny stretch next week we could get more rain (perhaps even a period of several days of showers), though that isn’t etched in stone.

    2. Or Christmas … Well, no, I wouldn’t do that. But in Brookline there’s a guy who starts his outdoor and indoor Christmas decorations in October. Though I like Christmas decorations what this guy does is a bit odd and over the top, especially because the neighborhood is mostly Jewish. It’s near Coolidge Corner.

      1. My Halloween goes up now so I can enjoy. It will take me until oct 1ish I start Christmas on November 2. My brothers angel day. We did a lot of decorating together when young. It will take me till after thanksgiving to finish in and out. If the gentleman in Brookline does a lot of decorating, it may take him that long. Or he may have a sentimental reason or he may just love Christmas.

        1. I would think decorating a month or more in advance, you would get sick of looking at them by the time the actual holiday arrives. The fun of decorating is when the holiday is close like within a couple weeks.

          1. That is the fun for you and I sure understand that. Each of my decorations holds a special memory. And I could never tire of those. That we are all different is what makes this a special world.

      2. My son will start Xmas right after Halloween. We are the known house In the neighborhood for both Halloween & Christmas decorations it’s overflowing with stuff . The two huge skeletons were put up last Wednesday.

  31. TK. What are you thinking for rain totals in North Attleboro Monday? Wondering if I will be sleeping in the basement again this week.

    Also supposed to go the Big E Monday. Is most of the showers in the am or late afternoon and evening.

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