Sunday September 17 2023 Forecast (7:50AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The last Sunday of summer will be a splendid one with a cool start, a nice warm-up, dry air, and lots of blue sky with a few decorative clouds around as high pressure builds in from the west. It’s a small high though and won’t be around long. You’ll notice higher clouds approaching from the southwest later in the day ahead of our next system, set to put an exclamation point on the wet summer season on Monday with another bout of unsettled weather. This system will consist of a vigorous upper level trough swinging through from west to east while a pretty decent surface low gets going and passes over or just offshore of southeastern New England by Monday night. While the event starts with some bands of showers and rain in morning hours of Monday it will consolidate into a pretty solid rain area Monday afternoon and evening, along with some potential embedded thunderstorms. The latter is most likely to occur close to the track of the surface low – i.e., RI and southeastern MA, where I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm or two with the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or hail. That will be one thing to eye closely with this system, as well as the healthy rainfall delivery, which can impact areas already hit by flash flooding recently, as well as creating some flooding issues in other areas. That said, I do not expect this event to rival what happened one week ago, so that’s some good news. The other good news is the system doesn’t hang around. It moves out quickly. And following it is a long stretch of dry weather beginning on Tuesday as high pressure builds in both surface and aloft…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible pre-dawn. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of showers in the morning. Widespread rain in the afternoon with possible embedded thunderstorms late-day near South Coast. Highs 63-70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Breaking clouds overnight with patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54, coolest low elevations inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind calm then NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure hangs on into late week with fair and slightly warmer weather. The September 24-26 period is vulnerable to the return of clouds, higher humidity, and the chance of wet weather as we watch low pressure moving up along the Atlantic Coast. Doesn’t look, at this range, to be a strong storm of any kind.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Dry weather for the most part with a return of a zonal flow pattern, but around mid period a disturbance may bring some showers through the region. No big storms or extreme temperatures are indicated.

98 thoughts on “Sunday September 17 2023 Forecast (7:50AM)”

  4. Tropics look quieter as we get into the peak days of the season. Not totally quiet, but quieter.

    I think the only way that low I spoke of in about 1 week has a way to be tropical is if its center happens to organize over the waters around the Bahamas. Otherwise it just looks like an inverted trough and eventual surface low of some kind. Long way off.

    The MDR should be relaxed for a bit with 2 systems in the next 2 weeks, both, according to medium range meteorology, far more likely to be early re-curves. There are still amateur pages out there trying to bring Nigel to the East Coast. Extremely, extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely. But these folks won’t learn and will continue to be a headache out there in social media land. Bleh! Anyway….

    Off to do mom’s errands and catch up on some things and enjoy a walk somewhere in there. 🙂

  5. Beautiful walk along the shore this AM. Just perfect!

    Seeing TV mets with 1-2″ for tomorrow and even putting up 3″ in spot locations.

  6. Thanks TK.

    I saw a graph on Ch. 5 that showed the dew points climb back up to 70 for tomorrow.

    Next weekend washout? According to Jacob, it will be quite prolific like tomorrow’s.

    3. Temps should be in the 60s, therefore the dew point cannot reach 70.

      And far too soon to even really speculate about rainfall amounts for next weekend’s rain amounts, IMO.

      A general rule of thumb is model #’s are pretty useless beyond day 4 outside of a very rough idea.

  9. Does seem like you could drive an 18 wheeler between the rain forecasts for tomorrow. Is this just different models? Hope the lighter side is the righter side. Thanks.

  14. The last time I remember a high risk from the WPC for excessive rainfall was back in September 2021 when SNE was dealing with the remnants of Ida.

    1. I wonder if the WPC is like the NHC where there are no sudden changes in their forecasts. So, they had to go with marginal to introduce, but by this evening or tomorrow morning, I’d other guidance matches the HRRR, they might be up to the next category.

  17. Yesterday there was no risk for SNE for excessive rainfall from the WPC. If there is an upgrade the marginal risk area would become a slight risk area.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    While the patterns themselves are different over time, the results have tended to be the same during this very long stretch of frequently unsettled weather and humidity.

    Throughout this now 100 day period, in advance (say, 3-6 days out) of systems, models and predictions have tended to vastly underestimate amounts of rain. And so almost every time more rain has fallen than initially predicted. I don’t think this is changing any time soon.

    1. Yes. Unfortunately, the trend seems a little higher on amts with time.

      Hopefully, N Providence to Attleboro area end up in a zone of tenths vs inches when all is said and done.

    2. Once again, those are quite remarkable rain totals. I consider anything over 1 inch of rain to be a pretty significant rain event. It’s certainly possible that some locales get 2 and possibly even 3 inches of rain.

      1. No matter what, that’s a lot of rain in my book. And it’s unwelcome. We’ve got issues in our boiler room and basement. Not as bad as July 2021 but it’s been a longer duration problem, really since June.

  28. I guess a person can learn something new every day. I did not know that we in America have a peculiar way of counting our Presidents. One person can count as two separate Presidents if that person wins two non-consecutive terms. Grover Cleveland was our 22nd and 24th President. I wouldn’t say this. But that is how he’s referred to. Quite strange. And because Trump may win in 2024 he would become our 47th President after being our 45th President. Am I the only person who finds this way of counting bizarre?

    1. What I find sickening is the mere thought that trump could possibly become president again. If so, we’re off to Canada, UK or Norway!!!

    2. I understand that each term begins with a formal inauguration, also if the incumbent wins. But if Biden were to win a second term we wouldn’t call him our 47th President. There’s something strange about referring to the same person as a different President.

      1. I agree and also find it odd. In my mind it seems to make sense that two term president would be two numbers. Then I would make sense to have a president whose terms are separated to be two numbers.

  30. JP Dave, I too am queasy thinking about a 2nd Trump term. I’m planning ahead, as mentioned, with long sojourns abroad in the near future.

    But I just wanted to point out the weirdness of our way of counting Presidents.

    I’m in the middle of a work project in which I’m encountering some very strange and inconsistent tallying of numbers and dates by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In the same guidance, they state two totally different dates – which are 12 months apart – that matter when selecting drugs for price negotiation. It puzzles me this ambiguity is normalized. I questioned it in a teleconference the other day and a person said “oh CMS does that sort of thing a lot.”

    1. Oh I understand what you were doing. The mere thought
      sickened me. Whatever one’s political views, the man
      is simply NOT fit for office, period.

  31. Vicki, I like your consistency. That’s the way I see it done elsewhere. They’ll refer to a Prime Minister who’s presided over different governments as, say, Smith I (Smith’s first term), Smith II, etc …

    Of course, Emerson might not like our trying to be consistent all the time: “Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.”

    1. Hahahaha. Love your quote. But I do find it odd also. And while I’m not thrilled with the idea of a repeat of Biden, the thought of 45 repeating truly makes me sick. There is no doubt in my mind that it would mean the end of our grand experiment.

  33. Still seems to be considerable uncertainty regarding the location of the heaviest rainfall as well as the overall amount for tomorrow. Will this crystallize tonight or is it a wait and see type of day? Thanks.

    1. Just NW of the low’s path, which I think may be right over Cape Cod, so probably RI & SE MA.

      IMO the global guidance (ECMWF / GFS) have the heavy rain axis displaced too far NW. I don’t buy it. The ensembles of these models and the more reliable short range guidance for an event within a 24 hour window indicate the southeastern half of RI and southeast of the Boston-Providence line will be the primary threat for heaviest rainfall and greatest shot at flash flooding.

    1. Thanks SClarke. That makes sense. But to me numbering presidency might make more sense than numbering presidents. No way to tell when you look how many terms a man served. And I’m way open to other views. After all we do say the xx president of the United States

      1. I like how my wife looks at it. The number goes up when the White House changes hands. This also covers the case of a VP finishing a term.

        1. We drive rte 2 today and I was watching for Leominster. And, I can see why that floods. It’s a huge bowl. Getting that much rain, I can see it all having run down that massive hill on rte 2.

          I felt like I saw plenty of signs of the early July deluge in Vermont too. Tons of road repairs and the river banks seemed full of logs although maybe that’s the way it always is 🙂

    1. It’s actually a fairly sad spectacle. The red uniforms remind me of some of the really bad days in the early 90s. Though the Pats aren’t that bad, they’re kind of headed in that direction. Sort of of rudderless and certainly bereft of much talent.

      The rather massive talent disparity between the Pats and quite a number of other teams is evident since 2019 and at least partly BB’s fault. I wish they’d ask him directly about this when he’s at the podium. He always talks glowingly about other teams’ players. Fair enough. But Bill, some of these players you could have had either by draft or free agency and you elected not to. Still others, you could have kept as they were on your squad. Instead you construct a mostly mediocre team year in and year out.

    1. Both last week’s and this week’s had very fun-to-watch finishes. Still can’t figure out why so many fans decide a game is over long before it’s over. 🙂

  40. 00z NAM (12km & 3km) both continue the idea of the heaviest rain basically from a BOS-PVD line southeastward. HRRR from 00z was similar.

  42. Well …… in southeastern New England, let’s hope we can keep today’s event to 1-2 inches, but with the way this has gone the last few months, we’ll end up with 2-4, 3-5 inches in some zone.

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