Tuesday September 19 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)

91 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Down the home stretch of summer 2023, and in an ironically symbolic way, we’re not going to see wet weather, but another stretch of dry weather similar to the holiday weekends that opened and closed the “summer vacation season”. High pressure will build toward and into the region today and sit around through late this week, keeping it fair, dry, and pleasant. Today will be a breezy day behind yesterday’s low pressure area and ahead of the approaching high center, but a weaker gradient will mean lighter winds but also coastal sea breeze for the balance of the week. We may see an increase in cloud cover later Saturday ahead of low pressure to our south, but at this point in time I’m not thinking that system will move fast enough to get here sooner, so I expect fair weather to start the weekend too. Saturday is the first day of autumn with an early morning equinox occurrence.

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH, turning NE in some eastern coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54, coolest low elevations inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Clouds, higher humidity, and rain chances September 24-26 depending on how far north low pressure to our south gets against high pressure to the north. The high should win out again with dry weather returning late period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected. Watch for a frontal system swinging through about September 30 with the best shot of wet weather. Otherwise, the pattern looks fairly dry. Warmest early in the period, cool shot following the frontal system.

91 thoughts on “Tuesday September 19 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Looking forward to the next 4-5 days of weather.

    I enjoyed the Tonga discussion yesterday.

    Additionally, it just happens that the sun is nearing a solar maximum that is being more active than the low projections for sunspot activity that were given to it. That was an understandable prediction given recent deep solar minimum and not active recent maximum. It appears the sun is back 🙂

  2. Thanks TK. 1.37 here yesterday. Thankfully, I didn’t get into a lot of the ,operate to sometimes heavy bands. That last shower around 11pm, with the line moving through, reminded me of a snow squall line in the winter. Quick strong winds and torrential rain that lasted for less than 5 mins,

  7. Humans (well, men) have always had a land grab problem. What is in a person’s or country’s possession is never enough, seemingly. Of course, it’s not only about having more land. It’s also about access to ports, resources and water.

    Many believed naively in 1989 that we were entering a period during which nationalism would fall by the wayside. The Balkans wars in the 1990s quickly debunked that thought.

    And once more – besides the Middle East – the world’s most volatile places are in the large area encompassed by the Balkans, the Caucasus Mountains and the plains and forests of of Ukraine.

    From the Balkans where tensions are growing and war could break out at any moment between Serbia and Kosovo (or Bosnia-Herzegovina) to Ukraine and now Nagorno-Karabakh men are resorting to perhaps their primal instinct of territorial acquisition. It’s sad we haven’t evolved much.
    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1704070686061346859

  12. Here’s some historical perspective on this summer’s rainfall.

    When I did some research about 25 years ago to create a climate database for Lowell, I found monthly rainfall data for the Mill City dating back to 1826. So, I have 197 years worth of rainfall to compare to. With yesterday’s rainfall, Lowell is at 4.96″ for September. If we get just another 0.04″ before the end of the month, it would be the 4th consecutive month with 5 or more inches of rain. In the 197 years of records I have, that has only happened once before: August/September/October/November/December of 1888.

    If we could get to 6″ for the month, that would make 3 consecutive months with 6″ or more. That’s also only happened once before: September/October/November of 1827.

    We’re also closing in on our yearly normal of 45.16″, with 3+ months left in the year. We’re at 44.76″, which makes this the 70th wettest year on record out of 197 if we don’t get another drop for the rest of the year. Our normal for the rest of the year from this date forward is 13.69″. If we were to get exactly that amount, this would end up as the 4th wettest year on record. We need 16.01″ of rain over the last 103 days of the year to break the current record of 60.76″ set in 2008.

    4. SAK, I’m very much a lurker on this blog, but follow closely. I’ve been following since the WBZ blog (if I have that site accurate). I run the Lowell Parks & Conservation Trust (www.LowellLandTrust.org) and am really interested in this summary of the data. Would you be OK if I shared it? Would be happy to tailor it however might make sense for you and give credit. Maybe someone can put us in touch. Really interesting!

  15. Joshuas comment yesterday and then SAK above reminded me of Boston in March of 1968. They had enough rain that they were sand bagging the Charles. I can’t find much of anything on it, however, so don’t know how much rain Boston received. SAK?? Anyone?

    We were in islamorada FL and flew back into it after a long delay in Miami. We were flying eastern airlines yellow bird. I still start humming the song when I think of that trip

    1. Boston received 7.68″ in March of 1968. Snowfall (and rainfall) the winter leading up to that was below normal, so I’m not sure why there would have been any flooding.

      1. Looking a little deeper, the bulk of that March rain fell in 3 days – March 17-19, when Logan received 5.10″. Looks like that was a widespread heavy rain event with totals of 2-6″ in dozens of locations, topped out by a whopping 7.74″ at Blue Hill.

        The Daily Weather maps show a developing low off the Mid-Atlantic states responsible for the rain.

        March 17, 1968: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1968/19680317.pdf
        March 18, 1968: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1968/19680318.pdf
        March 19, 1968: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1968/19680319.pdf

        1. I was a COOP student working at AIr Force Cambridge Research labs at the time. I remember discussing this
          storm situation with Roland Boucher

          This is a Youtube clip, coincidentally March 1968, But NOT the storm you have above.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_B0oupVAu3w

          He and I went skiing at Killington the following year, Feb 1969. 🙂

          1. Thank you SAK and Dave. We drove down storrow drive from Logan to Belmont and I recall the sandbags. But seem to recall the river didn’t look high. And while many of my memories are sharp, this one is not completely clear. It was a rough landing at Logan and I suspect that still had me a bit shaken.

  16. Last night I saw one of the TV mets say about Sunday and Monday, “there’s a chance of showers and some downpours.” I’m glad she added “chance of some downpours” because given the way this summer has gone, these should be included in all forecasts until further notice. Chance of showers alone doesn’t depict it properly. Ironically, the gentlest shower we had with when Hurricane Lee was sort of in our vicinity.

    1. I honestly don’t hear any forecasts that don’t include the words chance or possible or something along those lines from anyone on 4 or 7 or 10. I don’t usually listen to 5 so can’t speak for anyone there.

    2. I totally get it. I’ve had to be realistically pessimistic more than I like to be this summer – it took a while, but I learned. HAHA. I don’t like having to do it! HAHAHA

  19. Vicki, I remember the Eastern Airlines Yellowbird! Their planes had bright yellow on their tails, correct? 🙂

    JPD, I don’t remember tv met Roland Boucher because for whatever reason my parents didn’t watch Ch. 7 news at dinner time. I only remember Ch.4 and 5. By the 1970s though, it was Ch. 7 and we loved watching Dr. Fred Ward. 🙂

    1. Btw, that Roland Boucher looked like he really knew his stuff much like Don Kent the way he presented the forecast to his audience. Too bad he didn’t continue into the 1970s.

      1. Oh, he really did!

        You should have seen him at the top of Killington Peak.
        He pulled out his pocket sling pyschrometer and whirled it around for a few minutes and announced that it was 11 degrees. He did not report the humidity. 🙂

        1. I’ve said for a while that if we don’t straighten out as a country and world that we might have another 40 days and 40 nights ……..

    2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023091800&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      00z euro yesterday

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023091812&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      12z euro yesterday

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023091900&fh=126&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      00z today

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023091912&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      12z today.

      I love consistency !!!!!!

          1. Its going to pour ………. its not going to rain at all ……….. its going to rain …………. it might sprinkle a little.

  28. I really, really feel for those looking forward to tracking snow events.

    48 hrs.

    Beyond that, good luck getting model agreement. Or even being finished with drastic run to run changes.

    Just brutal.

    I can’t see why this will change entering the cold season.

  29. If the GFS ans EMON outperformed other models for Lee, is it silly to expect they will do the same for the next system(s)

    1. I wouldn’t call it “silly” but meterologically it would not be wise to make any assumption like that. Every system is at least slightly different and so many variables impact the behavior of it, and also many variables factor into model performance. I model that performed horribly on one storm can nail the next, and vice versa. It’s best to keep in mind track records of guidance, but treat each situation fresh as well. 🙂

      It’s similar to when we see people out on social media saying “but I thought the Euro was the king, how could it be so wrong?” … Eric Fisher had to reply to a reply on one of his tweets to tell the person that the Euro had been doing much worse on tropical cyclones the last few seasons, which is true.

      But even that doesn’t mean the GFS will beat it every time. 🙂

      1. There we go. We are back up and running.

        I kind of thought that would be the case. Will be interesting to see how they do with Nigel.

        Thank you !

        1. Even with a fairly simple track over water I’m curious to see how they handle it. I’ll try to keep close track.

  30. Vicki, what I was referring to was not the “chance” part. The forecasters almost always use the word chance in their forecasts. Rather, it’s adding the word “downpours” that’s different. So not just saying “shower chances.” The majority of systems this summer have been bountiful in the amount of rain department, usually because of downpours or simply heavy rain. It’s been rare that we’ve just gotten showers. And I do believe that the next rain events will feature plenty of rain (downpours and heavy rain). We’re in that kind of a pattern.

  32. There was some discussion here a few days ago when the F-35 went missing. I read that retired Col. Steve Ganyard said “Losing a stealth aircraft is hard to understand.”

    Shades of “Gentlemen! You can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!” 🙂

    1. Love it. Will pass on to daughter.

      We had been following the F-35 from the start since daughter and family just returned from Charleston and we are familiar with areas they were searching. No word that I’ve heard on why pilot ejected.

  33. It seems the weekend forecast is a toss up. Trying to plan apple picking (only weekend we can unfortunately). What day will be the “best”? Also have Monday as an option. Thanks!

  34. A quick note on the GFS. I do remember in the past that a set-up like the weekend one has often been forecast too aggressively by this model at about the time range we’re seeing it now.

    I suspect that the big batch of rain it shows coming up on Saturday PM will start to back off and peel more to the SE on the model’s depiction with future runs and in reality we’ll end up dry during Saturday for most areas (if not all).

    1. I think it was JR who posted about GFS ans EMON doing the best. It it was only in reference to Lee. Or maybe you are just mentioning GFS in general too.

      Don’t mind me. It is a day of confusion for me

  36. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023091912&fh=90

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023091912&fh=90

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023091918&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    I could have listed more models. They all show a large wind field due to a developing pressure gradient btwn that possible hybrid low and high pressure to the north.

    That’s a lot of the coastline with potential 25-35 mph wind or wind gusts.

  37. I just heard on Ch. 7 news that a plane at Logan was struck by lightning last night. In spite of the heavy rain I had no idea that thunderstorms were in the area. I thought temps were a bit too cool for activity.

    1. I thought lightning was embedded in the last line that went through an hour or two before midnight. As far as lightning striking a plane, I seem to recall my SIL saying it happens a few times a year.

    2. Lightning occurs in our snowstorms. It’s not a matter of temperature. It’s a matter of motion in the clouds / charge separation.

      I had thunderstorms in the forecast for yesterday’s system. They were not widespread, but there was embedded activity, consisting mostly of isolated long-distance in-cloud positive discharges. The plane was probably part of the path of one such discharge.

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