Saturday September 23 2023 Forecast (7:53AM)

91 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Autumn arrived at 2:50 a.m. with the equinox occurring, and our new season will get underway with something familiar – an unsettled weekend. However, today is not going to be a washed-out day for a good part of the WHW forecast area, and the reason is one that was outline previously as this tough forecast was being formulated over the last handful of days. Coming to pass is the source of dry air at mid levels born of “confluent flow” between high pressure in east central Canada and a low pressure trough to its east. This drying effect is pronounced in northeastern New England, i.e., Maine, with that dry air being transported southward into southern New England just as a rain shield, far in advance of Ophelia (a named system set to make landfall in NC). Basically, the forecast for “part 1” of the event today is the same: Rain shield to the South Coast early morning, then slowly advancing northward as the day goes along, but struggling to do so against dry air. The most solid rain shield will remain south of I-90 and the steadiest rain will indeed be closer to the South Coast. Once you get north of I-90, as the rain tries to move in there, it will be eroded by the dry air being supplied from Maine (a-yeahp), and once you are around the MA/NH border, you may not see anything more than sprinkly very light rain which struggles to even dampen the ground. By the time it even gets up there, the dry air still holding on and the tailing off of the initial rain plume will just clear the region of any rainfall this evening, with just patchy drizzle becoming more likely due to a persistent northeast flow from the Atlantic. Even that will take all day to get its act together, so I’m not expecting a lot in the way of low clouds/drizzle until after dark, and first closer to the eastern coastal areas before it can penetrate inland. Meanwhile, Ophelia will have gone inland in the Southeast and the low will rapidly weaken and start to dissipate, also losing any tropical characteristics. The remnant low will then emerge off the Mid Atlantic Coast and travel south of New England later Sunday and early Monday, when we have our best chance of rainfall across the region. When this is all done, I expect 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts along the South Coast, dropping off to around 1/2 inch in the I-90 belt and less as you go north from there, again with a good amount of that coming in part 2, especially northern areas. High pressure from Canada will push the wet weather out of here during Monday, though I’m not sure how much clearing we might see later Monday. Will revisit and refine that tomorrow. Also, we still have an upper disturbance that has to swing through the region Tuesday which may also result in a fair amount of cloud cover, but only a remote chance of a light shower, remote enough that I still don’t have it in my forecast. Finally, dry, bright, cool weather arrives by Wednesday as the high pressure area in southern Canada takes full control.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain South Coast all day, advancing northward with time. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely especially Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Any lingering rain ends / dissipates. Areas of drizzle/fog overnight favoring eastern coastal locations. Lows 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of rain. Highs 57-64, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of rain, again favoring southern areas. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy morning with periods of rain, best chance south and east. Partial sun may develop afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds – intervals of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

High pressure will provide fair weather for the final 3 days of September as we see a gradual temperature moderation. The end of the period may see low pressure trying to push back toward our region from the south, introducing the possibility of unsettled weather, but this is a low confidence outlook at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Potentially unsettled start to the period followed by a drier trend again. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

91 thoughts on “Saturday September 23 2023 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  1. So I do have a little bit of an issue with our local media (several outlets, not necessarily the meteorologist, but the panel in general) saying that “every weekend has been rainy this month” as I heard them say.

    Wrong. Labor Day Weekend was stellar. All 3 days. September 9-10 were unsettled but not “washed out” (I hate that freaking term). September 16 we were bushed by Lee and then the sun came back out later in the day with mainly dry weather. September 17 was beautiful.

    This weekend is unsettled.

    Ok, 2 out of 4. That’s not every weekend. 50% is not 100%. Stick to the facts please!

    Rant over. 🙂

      1. I’m so over the “drama”. News should never have become “entertainment”. It should have remained as news.

        There’s nothing wrong with personality. We’ve seen some great ones! I mean just look at the team of Liz & Jack, Bruce & Lobel (just one example from our past). They injected humor where it fit, otherwise they gave you the information without the drama.

        Now they’re all directed to play it up. Let’s get ratings. Let’s get clicks! Yeah, I get it. It’s a business. But I don’t give a rat’s patoot, to be honest. If you become the only one now to spare the drama and start giving people actual news, you might start a trend. 😉 (Though it’s probably too late now.)

        1. You have me smiling. And you are right. I do love those teams. But even down to the little Belmont Citizen decades ago, it’s always been about sensationalism. And borderline to outright lies My mom was of the mind that you let them know. I think of her each time I write/email.

          The difference now is thanks in good part to social media we are literally feeding on hate and the media is playing to that.

    2. The media is out of control on every topic. Nothing new. Heck top levels of every business is. I really think we as individuals can at least try to do something. Unsubscribe and send letters or emails to CEOs and subscription departments explaining why.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I see on radar, the rain struggling to move Northward. Interesting watching that. we shall see how it proceeds.

  5. Thanks TK.

    The summer gloom now extending into fall, and on the first weekend no less. Sigh. 🙁

    TK – Since you don’t like the term “washed out”, how would you describe the conditions along the South Coast for the next 48 hours? 😉

  10. Sprinkling here.

    Late morning field hockey game in sprinkles/mist.

    The other night in Salem, the dew must have been getting the turf wet, the players were slipping all over the place.

  12. As of 9 Am Rain reported at all RI reporting stations.
    Also in CT as far North as Hartford.
    IN MA, rain reported in Taunton and Plymouth.

  18. No rain here yet.

    TK, you are correct about the inaccurate portrayals by TV news teams of the weekend weather this month. Labor Day weekend – which is by far the most important one in September for travel and get-togethers – was stellar. And the weekend Lee `hit’ wasn’t bad at all.

    I love the video below which reminisces about the greatest TV team that I’ve ever known. I could listen to Jack Williams’ voice all day long. The best TV and radio voice I’ve ever heard. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbQH3ZjPSSY

    1. Those were the days, not likely to repeat ever again. Too bad the station never replaced Jack Williams “Wednesday’s Child”. You would think someone would be willing to spend a day at a zoo or aquarium etc. with a child that needs a permanent home. Those were very touching moments. Oh well. Thanks Joshua. 🙂

      1. “waka waka waka” … I’ve heard that phrase used in a pop song. This 1982 single (much more minor hit than the tune “Dirty Laundry” from the same album).

        Song’s called “Johnny Can’t Read” and is a favorite of mine. The studio recording includes 2 of my favorite musicians: Andrew Gold on keyboards, and Danny Kortchmar who plays guitar and also produced the tune.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogS6qx-zCQI

      1. Other than a sprinkle or a touch of drizzle, expect a dry weekend in York.

        That’s been my expectation there all along. They no doubt had a different source. 🙂

        1. Thank you. My guess is weather app. And I thought that was your forecast and the ones I saw last night on 4, 7, 10.

          1. I saw a couple TV guys and they didn’t seem to be pushing the rain that far north either – I thought they were kind of in line with mine.

            App is my guess, especially if the source was an over-aggressive model run.

  25. RRFS .. 12z run .. good simulation of how this goes I think, in terms of timing and rain areas. I think it may be a tad too high on the precip along the I-90 belt after the entire event, but I still stand by most of the region that gets measurable rain seeing more from part 2 than from part 1. That part of my forecast remains unchanged as the event gets underway. Now it’s time to watch to see…

      1. No, not widespread 1-2 from part 2. I never said that. Only the South Coast will get over 1 inch, for the most part.

        There is no part 3. Never mentioned a part 3.

        Part 1: Today / this evening.
        Part 2: Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

          1. I’m counting it as one “part” because there is the advanced rain shield today, a break, then the moisture that bleeds up from the remnant low of Ophelia before the entire thing gets shunted southeastward and offshore later Monday.

            If there is a “part 3”, it’s really a separate system and that’s an upper trough that swings through on Tuesday. I didn’t consider it part of the same unsettled stretch.

  27. The local talk show hosts have been going nuts all morning about the Patriots-Jets game due to the weather. Hosts and callers alike have been discussing “weather” just as much as here.

    Some say it favors the Patriots, others the Jets.

    A very stormy day tomorrow at the Meadowlands, regardless.

    1. I don’t know if I’d even consider it “very stormy”.

      Overcast, showery, perhaps embedded thunder. The rain may fall heavily for brief bursts depending on timing. For the entire day they probably get an inch of rain (not just during the game). Wind 10-15 sustained, gusts 20-25. Meh. Plenty of days like that in football season. Nothing special about this one. It makes the teams more evenly matched too.

      1. A reporter for the Boston Herald just tweeted out an Accuweather map with the track of Ophelia and said that it would be too far south to have any impact on the Pats game tomorrow. Clearly this guy doesn’t know how read an actual forecast.

  30. It’s absolutely pouring in Back Bay. Definitely a localized event, which the HRRR didn’t pick up. It’s just my street, actually. Well, in fact it’s just my block. Every other block looks dry. …

  32. On radar everything is breaking up.

    Can we put one in the wind column for TK
    and another in the win column for the GFS?

    I THINK SO!!!

    2. Dry slot at the barn. I’m Sutton center area. Uxbridge was 61, my house halfway to barn was 59. Barn 57.

      Breezy

  33. I will be at Jets Pats game tomorrow and the only positive for this for me as a Jets fan – the more it rains hopefully it means the less Zach Wilson will throw. If that’s the case advantage Jets!

    Currently in Rockaway Beach and was just down at the ocean – definitely impressive waves here

  37. Indeed, this is a win for TK so far. It’s rained, but only a little. You may of course ignore what I said about downpours in my neighborhood. I was just kidding.

    SClarke, thanks for sharing the links about the spacecraft.

  38. Can someone explain to me why on earth the Colorado Buffaloes were ranked in the top 25. While the team is much improved over last year it will struggle to win 6 games this year, in my opinion. It’s an improved team with a flamboyant coach. But there was no justification for its ranking.

  41. TV met Brian James on Ch 10 Boston has vaulted quickly into my top 3 in the market. I hope he stays around.

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