Monday September 25 2023 Forecast (7:09AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

One more day. Just one more day. …for now… So here we are still in the midst of another stretch of unsettled weather like so many we’ve seen in the past few months. This one which started during the weekend stretches through today as the remains of what was TS Ophelia pass just to our south as an elongating, weak area of low pressure. This feature will still cause rain in the region today, with the focus of it in the I-90 belt southward, though lighter rain can and likely will occur to the north of there in at least patchy form until as late as mid afternoon. After this we will finally see a steadier push southeastward of the rain area, which will exit off the South Coast this evening. While we start to feel the influence of Canadian high pressure building toward the region tonight and Tuesday, we’re going to have a northeasterly air flow, and one more upper disturbance swinging through too, so I still think we’ll see only partial clearing tonight and a lot of clouds hanging around Tuesday. I can’t rule out a sprinkle or patch of drizzle with the combination of the disturbance and the northeasterly air flow, but for the most part, once we get rid of today’s rainfall, it’s dry. High pressure builds right over the region by midweek with fabulous weather. Once we get to Friday, we’ll already be eyeing disturbed weather hanging around to our south, but so far the indications are stronger this time that it will remain to the south and high pressure will hold it off…

TODAY: Overcast through mid afternoon with periods of rain, steadiest I-90 belt southward. Clouds start to thin/break north and west with rain ending northwest to southeast late in the day. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partial clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. A sprinkle or patch of drizzle possible. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Optimistic route being taken with this outlook in the thought that high pressure will maintain control of the weather with an extended dry stretch and temperatures near to a little above normal. Sometime toward the end of the period a cold front from eastern Canada may deliver cooler air but with only a brief shower threat. Can things go “wrong” with this outlook? Yes, because the large scale pattern is still one that leaves us needing to keep an eye out to our south for things potentially missed by guidance.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Cautious optimism about a continued drier pattern with temperatures near to slightly above normal, but somewhat variable.

58 thoughts on “Monday September 25 2023 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  4. I had a long drive home from the Meadowlands last night after Zach Wilson’s putrid performance. I had to drive my son back to Springfield College and then drove to South Dartmouth. Wipers were on high half the time and the drive on I90 between 9:30-10:30 was the worst. Thankfully arrived safely by 11;30 after leaving meadowlands at 4:30.

  6. By the way, not only is the decision to continue to roll out Zach Wilson beyond anyone’s comprehension, Josh McDaniels is an embarrassment to head coaching. He is dreadful at it.

  10. Sorry all, but the JET’s QB situation is no concern of mine.
    The worse it is, the better for the Patriots. 🙂

    The game yesterday wasn’t great, but it wasn’t terrible either.
    At least it was a small step in the right direction.

    We’ll see with the next game.

  15. “We needed multiple possessions,” Josh McDaniels said when asked why he kicked the field goal down 8 points.

    Just imagine being Devonte Adams and hearing that from your head coach.

    1. oh and no sea ice, which is avg. The part that’s not avg, compared to what was true in the 1980s and 1990s, is how far one would need to go north in the ocean to finally reach ice.

      Its a lot further north than it used to be.

    1. Interesting. If I follow what’s left of today, it almost looks like
      it eventually turns into the above. I don’t see it happening that way, but that is what the gfs made it look like. 🙂

  19. Adding to JpDave’s comment just above ….

    If the pattern is going to feature well above 500 mb heights in the Great Lakes/northeast, that’s going to probably encourage low pressure aloft either in the south Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico or both. And then, should that stir around long enough ……….

  20. CFS monthly forecast is dry for Dec-Feb.

    12z GFS today waves a finger at us – look at the loop and you’ll see what I mean.

    12z ECMWF says “hey, it rains every time there’s even a remote chance, so let’s bring that thing up here and mess up Friday!”

    Hope you feel better Vicki!

  22. Vicki, take care. Stomach bug is the worst.

    I echo your son’s comment on the state of the foliage. It is quite late. My sister in Vermont says the same.

    1. 7-10 days behind last year.

      Wet summers often lead to later starts anyway. Cloud cover and humidity tend to lead to warmer low temps in late summer which delay the signal for the trees. Last summer was a drought summer (except up north where it was closer to normal). Tree stress lead to an earlier start down here.

      There is an exception though, swamp maples and the like are going right on time. Everything else is 7-10 days behind last year’s pace so far.

  24. I can’t remember ever seeing a tropical storm / hurricane forecast from NHC where the intensity is unchanged for 120 hours, until today. 😉

    1. I have always been a fan of the met office.
      Even now they are straightforward no BS no hype.

      I know at least three artists who have sampled their radio broadcasts.

      Thomas Dolby
      Tears for Fears
      Chumbawumba

  30. Thanks all. I’m thinking food poisoning Improving and still testing covid negative. Not that I’ve been anywhere. It would ge the immaculate infection.

    Ohhhh that was bad.

    1. Food poisoning is not fun either. Got it from UNO’s last year for chicken that was not fully cooked. Never going there again!

      1. Oh noooooo. So sorry.

        I took out from a new place that has a bunch of things I couldn’t wait to try. And I won’t go back. I didn’t l know you can run a fever with it so thought a bug at first.

        1. Yes you can. My upset stomach lasted five days from that bout. I got sick from hummus about 5 years ago and that lasted almost a month. Keep an eye on your fever, etc. When you get to five days with the upset stomach, usually they want to see you.

  31. TK, the Met Office forecasters’ most popular phrase is “sunny spells and showers.” That succinctly sums up the weather there this time of year. Of course, there’s also the weekly or biweekly storm (gale force winds) that rolls through. And, as Aidan points out sometimes the UK experiences a transitory day or so of high pressure and tranquility “in between the lows coming in from the Atlantic.”

  32. Complete washout here in Coventry today and has literally been raining non-stop. Still raining but looks like it is finally about to taper off.

    1.92” in the rain gauge today
    0.45” yesterday
    0.05” Saturday

    2.42” for a storm event total.
    10.60” on the month of September
    Over 31” since July 1st

    I will welcome the drier pattern, as long as it doesn’t extend into winter 🙂

      1. Washington Dulles 73”
        Philadelphia 79”
        Baltimore 80”

        Give me a repeat of that winter with just a little less blocking and I’ll be happy!

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