Saturday September 30 2023 Forecast (8:31AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

On this final day of September and first day of the weekend we’ll remain under the cloud canopy of low pressure located to the south of New England, but the wet weather associated with it will be confined mostly to areas south of I-90 to start the day, with a drying trend as the day goes on. The clouds will begin to thin out and break from northwest to southeast as we get into the afternoon, but probably not enough for any appreciable sun, only some partial sun in areas well to the north and west of Boston. Complete clearing takes place during the nighttime hours though, albeit slowly, as the low pressure area finally starts to pull further out to sea. October arrives and the weekend wraps up Sunday with a very different day. We’ll have lots of sun, some fair weather clouds, and pleasant air as high pressure builds in. This high pressure area will then be in control of the weather the early to middle portion of next week with sunny, mild days, and clear, cool nights.

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of rain favoring areas south of I-90. Clouds thin and break especially north and west of Boston later in the day where a glimpse of sun is possible. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing northwest to southeast. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early fog patches dissipate otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Dry weather and above normal temperatures to start the period with high pressure in control, but as high pressure slips to the east a southerly air flow increases the humidity and cloud cover ahead of a cold front, set to pass through the region sometime during October 7. A shorter-duration rain shower threat would accompany this. This will be followed by a cool air mass from Canada along with some gusty wind at least initially. A secondary push of cool air may arrive at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

A little more confident now in calling for a drier pattern with high pressure in control much of the time, and a cool start followed by a milder trend.

51 thoughts on “Saturday September 30 2023 Forecast (8:31AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    According to the relatively new tv met Melanie on Ch. 7, today is the 18th weekend with rain since June 1.

    Kelly Ann on Ch. 5 hinted at more rain next weekend. #19?

    Yesterday Boston/Logan = 0.27 inch. I don’t mind losing out to NY in the least. 😉

    1. I wrote a commentary on my FB intro about that. The “weekends with rain” stat is very misleading. Most of these weekends have seen “some rain”, yes. The vast majority of them were NOT rainy weekends, with at least 1 fair weather day, or 2 partial, sometimes majority fair weather day.

      I think this stat is pushed by news directors addicted to the drama style of reporting. Yes, I’ll note it too, but I’ll also clarify and explain it better than just making it seem like every Saturday and Sunday for the last zillion years has rained. 😉

      I’ve seen Mel on air a few times. I like her. And regarding next weekend, I covered that in today’s blog post.

  2. Thanks TK! Am I first? That’s a first for me I think. Will that blob of rain hovering over the ocean make its way to SE MA this morning?

  4. I heard on WBZ radio this morning that Central Park received 2”+ per hour yesterday which ranked 2nd in NYC history.

    1. It was a pretty intense rain event there, and well-modeled by the short-range guidance designed to do such a thing (within reasonable range, of course). I think a lot of that gets lost in the # inundation too far in advance.

      I saw somebody give this as a “win for the Euro”. No, it was not. The European model did not handle this one very well at all at the range it should have been doing much better. How many runs in a row did it give Boston 4+ inches of rain? It finally pulled back near the end, but by then the short range guidance was far more reliable a tool. There’s a way to use the guidance, and a way NOT to use it. A little trick used in that aspect of meteorology. 😉

          1. I’ve learned after a couple of decades that he sees something. I wonder if he was referring to rain moving north up through western MA. I didn’t expect to see amounts up to 1/3 inch early morning here. I mentioned I was surprised when I posted.

            Just a thought. As with TK, I try to look deeper into reasoning for forecasts.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Logan’s 0.27 strikes me as a bit low. My rain gauge isn’t working. But I think in the city we got more than 0.27. Perhaps 0.40. The good news is this was NOT a major rain producer for Boston. In this respect the pattern has changed a bit, with recent rain events not being as prolific HERE.

    But of course it’s a very different story with our friends in NYC and vicinity as well as parts of Connecticut.

  10. Brightening up here. Can see the sun trying to peek through. Let’s hope it stays that way, apple picking planned for the afternoon!

  12. Thanks TK.

    3.44” here in Coventry and hopefully done?

    Now 14.07” on the month.

    Last nights high school football game here, which was postponed to this afternoon, has been postponed again to Monday night as the field is too wet.

    2. Crazy amount, Mark. I’m wondering how the footing will be for granddaughter to ride tomorrow. We had 1.81 which doesn’t begin to compare what you had, but our yard is really spongy

    3. Mark you and I were real close in rain totals, I finished with 3.54” but you have me for the month, I have 9.34”. You had one of those extreme rain falls at the beginning of the month if my memory is correct. That’s quite a drenching without the aid of a (named) tropical system.

  13. Below is a link to a rather infamously phlegmatic forecast from October 1987, which kind of downplayed the intensity of the storm that was about to impact England. It was also inaccurate in terms of the storm’s path which took an unexpected northward turn. Though technically not a hurricane, the storm packed hurricane-force winds and was the most intense fall storm I experienced while living over there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

  14. My father has lived in Rockaway Beach, NY for 45 years – Near JFK. Only twice has there been water in his basement – Hurricane Sandy which was mostly ocean water and yesterday which was rain water. Many many basements flooded there

    1. Neither. It will dissipate, or nearly be dissipated, by the time it reaches the Boston area as no more than a few sprinkles.

    1. I find it interesting that the newscast didn’t open up with the meteorologist’s take on the storm like over here.

      1. They’ve never really been into the “shove the weather up your nose, down your throat, and anywhere else it will fit” mentality like US news. Thankfully. Wish we’d go back to that. 🙂

  18. JP Dave, thanks for sending the youtube video that took me back to the Great Storm of 1987.

    Of course, this also reminded me of a devastating storm I experienced in the Netherlands in January 1990. See link below. The narration is in Dutch, but the images speak for themselves. It was called Storm Daria. Hurricane force wind, gusts over 200 km/hr. Dozens of deaths in Britain and 20 deaths in the Netherlands.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn-naTQ9Y30

  19. That had to be the most poorly timed last band of rain. It poured in Bridgewater the whole game and now, it just ended and it’s sprinkling, but we’re drenched and that’s with an umbrella.

    1. I’m sorry to hear that.

      It’s been dullsville in Boston. The Dutch call this weather “nothingness” (I’m translating). I think it’s an apt description. It’s good for photography, however.

  20. It’s well known that Benjamin Franklin was fascinated by weather. But I just came across this showing what a wide-ranging visionary he was:

    “Fake quotes will ruin the internet”
    — Benjamin Franklin

    🙂

  21. I looked out the window seeing what I first thought was the moon but it was actually the sun. A bright white round ball. Fascinating and creepy at the same time.

    1. Smoke plume. This one is spread more evenly through the atmosphere and the particles are the type that filter color rather evenly, leaving a silvery/white sun. This will be the case for several hours before it thins, and then it gets renewed early Monday with another day of filtered sun. Finally pushed away Tuesday by a westerly air flow. Source region for this plume southeastern Canada.

      I went over this in today’s discussion a bit more in detail.

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