Sunday October 1 2023 Forecast (8:31AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

High pressure is going to be the main player in our weather with fair conditions for the next 5 days. But the first morning of October dawns with clouds mainly across Cape Cod and only a few fog patches across the landscape, so why is there so little sun? The answer: A Canadian wildfire smoke plume, a rather thick one, making the sun look silvery as it rises in the eastern sky through the smoke which sits mainly aloft but also somewhat closer to the surface as well. This plume, brought in by a light northeasterly air flow between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, will thin from west to east during the day to allow for brighter sun with time. But the main smoke source being fires just south of Hudson Bay Canada and us seeing a northerly wind on Monday with high pressure centered to the west means additional smoke will filter into the region, both at the surface and aloft, again filtering the sun. High pressure slips to our south Tuesday, helping to clear the smoke and also making it a warmer day with 80 degrees not out of reach for some places. A weak frontal boundary will scoot through the region nearly unnoticed Tuesday night, other than the wind will shift to north at night and east Wednesday as a new high pressure area moves out of eastern Canada. There may still be some smoke to contend with heading into midweek but with some luck, the main fire areas in Canada will see a bout of rainfall to help reduce the fires by then (with a more helpful rain due there later this week). By Thursday, high pressure will be east of our region with a southeast to south breeze but still some very nice early autumn weather continuing.

TODAY: Early ground fog patches favoring interior low elevations and early to mid morning clouds on Cape Cod, otherwise smoke-filtered sunshine gradually becoming brighter. Highs 67-74. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Smoke returns overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches again in lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

October 6-7 sees more humidity, more clouds, a southerly air flow, and eventually a period or two of rain showers with the approach and passage of a frontal system, but I don’t expect this to be a long lasting bout of unsettled weather as we get into a cool, breezy, dry air mass right after that, with a potential reinforcing cool shot on its heels for the end of the period. Details to be worked out…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

High pressure controls the weather with another dry stretch for much of if not all of this period, starting cool followed by a milder trend.

66 thoughts on “Sunday October 1 2023 Forecast (8:31AM)”

  1. The Twin Cities marathon was canceled today due to black flag conditions – 90 degrees and humid. They also canceled the 10 miler which occurs mostly before sunrise – really tough decisions. I have run that marathon four times and at the start in 2016 it was 37 degrees and mid 40s the entire race. Warmest September ever in Minneapolis St. Paul

    1. Another mark of what has been a strong/stable pattern, again boosted by the impact of HT. You’ll hear me see that a lot in the coming days, weeks, months, maybe few years. Every day I’m more and more convinced that’s what we are seeing here…

      Meanwhile, Boston just had 10 straight day of below normal temps. As I said, stable pattern.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Careless humans are the direct cause of these wildfires. Sorry but I’m just not buying the “lightning” excuse. The radio PSA’s (Smokey Bear) says so.

    “90% of all wildfires are caused by humans.”

    1. I don’t think anybody was giving lightning as an excuse.

      Humans cause 85 to 90% of wildfires in North America.

      However, lightning caused wildfires burn up to 10 times the amount of acreage that human caused ones do. I’ve explained on the blog before why this is the case. It’s just science at work to figure this stuff out.

      These are facts. You can’t just dismiss that or label at something other than it is.

      And no I’m not saying that human caused wildfires are okay. We can prevent that.

      But we can’t prevent natural ones that burn more than the ones we cause. That’s just something that we have to deal with.

  6. TK
    thank you for the explanation about the sun. I was expecting bright sunshine this morning and I was pissed when it wasn’t there. I can’t take another day without the sun!!!!!!!

    1. Most of it is above. There is some lower altitude smoke as well, and some of what you see in the mountains there is light stratus / fog mixed with some low altitude smoke.

      1. Which is what I am looking at out of my window now. It’s a bright sunlit sky with a hazy layer and one can smell plenty of smoke.

  12. AQI (Air Quality Index) is 107 currently in JP.

    UNHEALTHY for sensitive persons, which means my wife.
    ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. This is a repost of my comment earlier this morning on the previous blog:

    I looked out my window seeing what I first thought was a full moon but it was actually the sun. A bright white round ball. Fascinating and creepy at the same time.

  14. What should be a benign cold frontal passage and something like .10 – .50 inches of rain late workweek, early next weekend ……

    Somehow, it will evolve into something that slows down a bit, develops a wave on the front and we’ll end up with something like 1-1.50 inches region wide, if not more.

    Just the way it’s been going …….

  15. My son introduced me to a new and free app. It may be something bird folks here already use. It is Cornell’s Merlin. It just identified a cry I’d been hearing often in the woods behind my house as a red shouldered hawk.

  18. Thanks TK.

    74 and sunny here but still quite a bit of smoke in the air, especially in the south and east sky.

    Yesterday, we were in the Middletown CT area and stopped by Wadsworth Falls. The falls were raging after all of Fridays rain…

    https://imgur.com/a/oNLOo6y

  20. Bob Maxon tweet from NBC CT:

    Are we seeing an epic Euro meltdown? Is this the comeback for the ages? It’s getting interesting!! Go USA

  21. Could be a harbinger of things to come in the Sierras and mountains of the SW this winter with a strong El Niño…

    NWS Las Vegas tweet:

    ❄️Snow!?!?!? In September?!?! What is this Alaska?!?!

    ️Yup, snow is accumulating on elevated and grassy surfaces in the mountains of Esmeralda County.

    This webcam snapshot shows the current conditions at Montezuma Peak. #NVwx

    Webcam Courtesy of @NVSeismoLab

    https://x.com/nwsvegas/status/1708263492632146254?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

  22. Finally bright sunshine here, albeit a very dull blue sky. Oh well, a lot better than it looked earlier this morning.

    1. Ditto here. At barn and will be an easy ride for granddaughter and horse. Coming over the hills on the way here there was a ton of low smoke in the distance

  24. Mark I saw that headline in the grocery store you posted from the NY Post. I shook my head. There was warning. This was not a surprise rainfall event.

    1. Still some low here and a fair amount in the distance over the trees…. Close also of course but easier to see off in distance.

  31. So sad with Tim Wakefield.

    I don’t know if it applied to him, wondering if he ever chewed tobacco during his playing career.

    Too many MLB players have died younger due to it.

  32. I just stepped outside real quick to take out a bag of trash and I could immediately smell smoke. WHEW!!!

    I looked around and you can see the smoke from the streetlights. It is now definitely at/near ground level. Anyone who is sensitive would definitely have a problem walking or jogging etc.

  33. Devastated by Wakefield’s death. I don’t own many sports jerseys or t-shirts, but I do have one of Wakefield. My son and daughter bought it for me in 2010. They knew how much I liked his story and seeing Wakefield pitch the oldest of old-fashioned pitches.

  34. As far as the Patriots are concerned, well, it didn’t matter to me once I heard the news about Wakefield.

    I took a long walk and avoided TV or sports.

    1. The Patriots are 1-3 for the third season in a row. Ironically though, the team that won their first SB (2001-02) started with the same record.

      No, I don’t have any allusions. They are nowhere near the same team.

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