Wednesday October 4 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)

78 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

High pressure provides another sun-filled day with a feel of summer in the air. Like yesterday, fog patches will be around in some areas to start, but will burn off quickly. One difference from yesterday as the high center governing the fair weather is in a different place, so the westerly land breeze will be replaced by a more easterly air flow, keeping the coast cooler, but still really nice! High pressure slips off to the east Thursday and Friday. Thursday will still be a nice day featuring a lot of sun, a southeast breeze, and temps down a couple more notches, while Friday will feature higher humidity and more cloud cover, but rain-free conditions through the day. It’s Friday night into the weekend when our next round of wet weather comes. This takes place as a trough of low pressure and an associated frontal system approach and move in from the west, while Tropical Storm Philippe will be losing tropical characteristics while tracking northward in the waters east of New England. Some of the moisture from this system will become involved with the trough and frontal boundary, which will enhance the rainfall and coverage. I’m not looking for a system akin to ones that caused recent major flooding events in the Northeast, but there can be downpours enough to result in some minor to moderate flooding issues especially in areas prone. Unfortunately, the timing for this pretty much results in a good portion of Saturday and Saturday night being wet, though we may be able to sneak a few dry hours in in some locations Saturday. Guidance is split on the rain’s exit, with some saying the rain exits Saturday evening while other models hold it in a bit longer, into early Sunday. I am in preference of the later timing with a rain chance until mid morning Sunday. After this we’ll see a flip to drier weather with a sun/cloud mix, much cooler air, and a drop in humidity during the balance of Sunday. A gusty breeze is likely as the low that was Philippe moves through western Nova Scotia or even northeastern Maine and starts to combine with another low passing to our north into an atmospheric whirlpool over southeastern Canada.

TODAY: Early fog patches, otherwise sunny. Highs 72-77 coast, 77-82 inland. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear, except fog re-forming in some lower elevation locations. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely including some downpours. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable, then SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers ending from west to east morning. Sun/cloud mix midday on. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure, centered in southeastern Canada, will govern the weather with breezy, cool weather during the first half of next week including a few passing shower chances, but not much in the way of rain. High pressure should push closer for fair and more tranquil weather later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Unsettled weather opportunity early in the period then a return to drier weather again. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

78 thoughts on “Wednesday October 4 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Quite the warm airmass overhead.

    If I recall correctly at 6am, it was around 55F at the summit of Mt Washington and 72F at 1,000 ft Worcester airport.

    1. High heights and surface high pressure with very weak pressure gradient are the perfect recipe for this, and this is most common in early to mid autumn in New England.

      Last evening, just 1/2 hour after sunset, there was a field I drive by frequently that sits low (and feeds a lot of cows – moo) that already had a very shallow but dense layer of radiation fog over it, about 3 feet in depth, and this was still during the light of evening twilight. If I had been standing there, my head would have been above the fog. Now I wish I had stopped and gone out there for a photo. 🙂

  10. If I may digress. Or perhaps rant. For a minute. My brother was transferred to rehab just under two weeks ago. While in hospital and up to transfer, a hoist had to be used to transfer him from bed to chair. As of yesterday, he was able to shuffle almost on his own from bed to chair with cheers from all of us and his nursing staff. This is a man who has worked out every day of his life until around 79 and for the last 3 years a few times a week. He is fighting hard to make progress.

    Well. As of yesterday, United health care announced he is ready for discharge to home. So won’t cover rehab after Friday or Monday. He lives alone having lost his wife to cancer a year ago.

    We had a horrific time with UHC with Mac. To the point even with the best doctors in Boston writing to them in appeal, uhc still refused to budge.

    Our system is so horrifically broken. Maybe even worse AARP recommends UHC to all of its seniors.

    Rant over.

    1. I am so sorry to hear this!
      You are correct, our system is HORRIFIC to say the least.
      the worst of all developed countries.

      Here’s the problem:
      Everything is based on PROFITS and NOT the care of
      patients!(@#)*()!@*)#(*!)(@*#)(!*@)(#*!)@(#*)(!@*#)(!@)

      Insurance companies generally SUCK!!!!!

      Sorry I joined in your rant. Ending now….

      1. No apology necessary. You are absolutely correct. I will say I have exceptional coverage with Medicare and my bcbs supplement

        1. Fortunately,

          We have excellent coverage via BCBS.
          Luckily for us, I am still working, even at my advanced age.
          So, I am not dealing with the Medicare world just yet. 🙂
          Hopefully, I’ll still be covered the day I leave this world. 🙂

      1. Thank you. His insurance is through his verizon retirement plan so I don’t think that is an option. But it’s a good thought and I’m going to ask.

  11. Logan is 72, but the wind has just shifted to NNE.
    Is the front there? OR is the gradient just too light
    ahead of the front?

  13. Vicki, I am sorry to hear about your experience with UHC.

    As you may recall, when I gently criticized one of their policies in a piece I wrote, I got threatened by a UHC executive. Not physically, but with legal action. I resolved the issue, but it was very stressful.

    UHC is a profit machine. Much more so than pharmaceutical companies.

    2. I had forgotten that and you are right. For an insurance company to make medical decisions and ignore a persons own doctors is unconscionable

  16. 12z GFS looks like it may end up with heavier rain.

    We’ll see, but Phillipe or whatever that thing is, looks further west than the 00z run.

  21. Hello from St. Thomas USVI.
    Tropical storm Philippe has been giving us much needed rain, a nice light show last night with all the convection. Nice breezy conditions with clouds. Those dew points are actually rather normal for this time of year. It is actually rather cool for us right now. I am about 1000 feet up from sea level at the moment. We are all enjoying the fact that the heat index is not around 100 which its been almost every day this summer. The ocean is rather turned up as well. Hopeful the clouds stick around for another day or so haha.

  22. So, the euro was too far west with Lee 2 days out and now, I wonder if it’s too far east with this moisture source offshore or phillipe.

  23. Why do I get the feeling someone in eastern Mass is going to get 2-4 inches of rain Saturday on the western flank of a surge of moisture from the Atlantic.

  24. Thanks TK.

    Today is the 36 year anniversary of the freak October 4 snowstorm that crushed the Albany area in eastern NY as well as NW CT, the Berkshires, and much of VT. I was 11 at the time. I remember waking up that morning and couldn’t believe my eyes. This is the 6pm newscast from Ch 13/WNYT Albany from 10/4/87:

    https://youtu.be/A29Kyo9Bb9A?si=2PMbV58qf1F7JovY

    Meteorologist Herb Stevens gives a detailed description of what happened in his full weather segment near the end of the video (on some very primitive weather maps) It was all about the track of the upper low and the cold column of air beneath it. A 100–150 year occurrence storm. He shows the observation from Albany….6” of snow melted to 2.8” of liquid! Talk about low ratios! No wonder there was such catastrophic damage when that fell on fully leafed trees.

    1. Side note on Herb Stevens… he was the second on air meteorologist to appear on TWC when it launched in 1982. (After Bruce Edwards opening segment) When he took over at WNYT in Albany the following year, he replaced Todd Gross who started his career there. He was one of my favorite Mets to watch growing up and was there through the 90s. He later became the “skiing weatherman” and is now 69 and back living in his home state of RI doing private forecasts for golf courses.

        1. I believe he did go straight to Boston from Albany. From what I am reading, he started at WNEV (present day WHDH) in Boston in 1984 as a weekend meteorologist. He had a short stint in Rochester NY as well though not sure if that was before or after Albany.

          1. Thank you. I think he replaced Harvey on whdh. But May be very wrong about that. And then was fired in the early 2000s. He didn’t go easily and was really nasty to the weather watcher group.

            1. Interesting, I don’t remember him as I was too young when he was on in Albany. Didn’t move from NY to CT until 1999 and even here, the only Boston station we get is WBZ.

              1. I worked with him on his weather spotters creating the website and working with an other woman to maintain the spotter list. He had us both to the station which was a ton of fun. Pete moved to chief met when Todd left. He was amazing to work with

                2. It was tons of fun but most of all brought a special person into my life…and JR to a smaller degree.

              2. Is WBz still the only Boston station you get? I remember when we were in Nova Scotia that whdh was being broadcast in a place we stopped for dinner

                1. It is and I think the only reason we even get WBZ is that I have Directv and we live in the northeast quadrant of the state. All our local affiliates are out of Hartford or New Haven.

    2. Awesome clip. Thank you. Niagara Mohawk was a client of company where mac and I worked. Mike Cahill is a familiar name.

      And a ratio of 2.5/1. My goodness.

      1. Wow small world!

        It is nostalgic looking back at those newscasts and seeing the sticky notes on the power grid maps at Niagara Mohawk and the clip of the gigantic DOS based computer monitors they were using. And some of the anchors and news reporters I grew up watching (a few on that clip are dead now).

        We have definitely come a long way.

        1. It really is fascinating. and yes a small world. Brings back a lot of memories watching. But bittersweet when we know some do the folks are no longer with us.

    1. Loved her. Too many losses around that time. Hendrix, Joplin, Jones,Morrison. I’m sure I am forgetting some and apologize

  26. So much for AL East dominance. Rays and Jays unceremoniously dispatched 2 games to none in their series against the Rangers and Twins, respectively. This leaves the Orioles as the lone remaining AL East representative.

    1. Nice. With so many leaves in the trees and water logged snow, no wonder there were so many power outages.

  28. One of the most powerful songs written by R.E.M. (well perhaps any group) is Everybody Hurts (link below takes you to a live performance in London in 2005). Stipe writes from the heart. His positive message can lift up people in their depths of despair. It’s rare for a song to have this effect: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2hGmoWFzaA

  29. There’s a distinctive possibility that Philippe and the cold front team up to give eastern MA mainly rain-free weather Saturday…

    Don’t count it out.

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