Thursday October 5 2023 Forecast (9:06AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

An extensive stratus/fog layer sits over much of the region early this morning, a product of increased moisture from a light east to southeast air flow and a night of radiational cooling. High pressure hangs on today and allows the sun to burn this stratus/fog off, but it may take several hours to complete. By afternoon we’re in sunshine across the region, but you’ll notice some high clouds starting to fan into the westerly sky later in the day in advance of a trough of low pressure approaching from the west. Our weather takes a turn toward unsettled as we move through Friday and into the start of the weekend, but Friday itself will not be a bad day – just featuring more clouds and higher humidity with slightly cooler air on a southeasterly breeze. Our greatest chance of wet weather will be from the period beginning late Friday evening through Saturday night, however, this is not a straightforward event. Toss in Tropical Storm Philippe, a system that will be tracking northward, passing east of New England Saturday, while losing tropical characteristics. It’s going to send the western edge of its rain shield very close to eastern New England, probably making it into coastal areas for a few hours Saturday. Meanwhile the trough and frontal system approaching from the west are going to start to cut off to our west, slowing their progress. This will also mark the start of an interaction between the low that was Philippe and the low approaching from the west. The showers from the trough and front will get into western New England, and some can be heavy, but their forward progress will slow and a lot of the energy for these may lift more to the north than it can come eastward. Result: The interaction of these 2 systems may spare a good portion of the WHW forecast area from a significant rainfall, but I am still leaving showers in the forecast with lots of cloud cover and high humidity until the system lifts to the north of us on Sunday. At that time we’ll get a flow of dry air from the west, but likely see a sun/cloud mix and maybe a passing shower in a few locations on Sunday. This low will be hanging around to our north for a while, and Monday’s weather will reflect that as a breezy, cool autumn day with some clouds to deal with, but dry weather.

TODAY: Low clouds / fog in much of the region into or through mid morning then developing sunshine with some high clouds arriving later in the day. Highs 69-74 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds increase. Areas of low clouds and fog can redevelop. Lows 57-64. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun possible. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Possible showers. Lows 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible anywhere but most likely eastern coastal areas and far western areas. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. A period of fog possible late evening / overnight. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable, then SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Upper level low pressure, centered in southeastern Canada, will govern the weather with breezy and cool weather continuing early in the period including a possible shower as a disturbance goes by the region. A fair weather interlude as the low pulls away and high pressure moves in at mid period, then by late period we may already see the impacts from the next trough with more unsettled weather arriving from the south and west.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

General trough in the Northeast leaves our region vulnerable to additional unsettled weather episodes.

39 thoughts on “Thursday October 5 2023 Forecast (9:06AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I have been watching exactly what you have described above on the model runs. Most interesting.

    One of the hurricane models has the Phillipe rain shield just
    get into Eastern Coastal sections. I hope not. MOST models
    keep it off shore.

    1. Probably wouldn’t be that big a deal if it did anyway. Also will be moving right along, so nothing hangs around.

      1. Oh, I certainly saw that it moves right along.
        No Matter how you slice it, another lousy day Saturday!
        Let’s hope for some sunshine on Sunday! I’ll believe it when I see it. 🙂

        1. Sunday will be the post-low west flow (in this case more southwest because of the upper pattern orientation). We’ll have intervals of sun and clouds that day. It’ll also be quite breezy.

  5. I know not too many people around here are paying attention, but for the first time in MLB history the wildcard round of the playoffs ended with 4 sweeps, and for the 2nd time in MLB history all the rounds of a playoff series ended on the same day.

    1. The 4 sweeps would be a lot more impressive if they didn’t switch from 1 game to a 3-game series last year. So “history” only extends back 1 year.

  8. While the weather this weekend and next week is a bit of a change, here’s what I’ll be dealing with in Anchorage this weekend:

    Friday A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 52. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.
    Friday Night A 30 percent chance of rain after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
    Saturday A 30 percent chance of rain before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 5 mph.
    Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
    Sunday A 30 percent chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.
    Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
    Columbus Day A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.

    Yeah, no shorts packed for this trip.

    1. You’re not taking a trip to Anchorage. You’re taking a trip to November. 😉

      Enjoy! Take pics!

  10. I’ll be at a wedding this afternoon in southern NH. Outdoor event, mid afternoon. Can’t ask for better weather than what will be. 🙂

  11. There are some interesting inland dew points.

    Lots of 50s and 60s dps, but a couple places with dps in the low-mid 40s that stick out.

    1. If you look closer, I believe some slight warmth from Nantucket helps to prevent the fog from forming directly upwind of the island, though in later images, even that area begins to fill in.

    3. We were on Hampton Beach today from 10:30 – 1:30. There was fog the entire time. The density varied and at times standing near the water you could barely tell that there were any buildings along the boardwalk. It was a great day to be there!

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