Sunday October 8 2023 Forecast (7:51AM)

72 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-13)

The low pressure merger has taken place to our north, and the systems that combined to give us a cloudy, humid, and at times wet day yesterday will provide us with dry, breezy, cooler, and mainly fair weather for today and Monday to round out the holiday weekend. What cannot be ruled out is a stray sprinkle or light shower out of diurnal clouds that pop up both today and Monday. A more organized disturbance getting absorbed by the larger low to the north will bring a better chance of showers to our region Tuesday, before a weak area of high pressure eliminates this chance again Wednesday, before another disturbance brings some clouds and perhaps a passing shower chance to the region again at some point on Thursday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a stray passing afternoon shower. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers likely. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible by late-day. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A weak high pressure area nosing in from Canada will bring fair weather October 13. The big question is the weather for the weekend of October 14-15. While medium range guidance (three major models) all show a broad low pressure area impacting the region at some point, timing is somewhat variable, but probably a result of how much blocking each model forecasts. Sparing detail (for now) there is a possibility that atmospheric blocking will be stronger than forecast by most guidance, resulting in slower-moving features. This could potentially keep us dry to start that weekend with a wetter second half, but it’s far too soon to scrutinize the set-up deeper than this with any confidence. Drier weather would return later in the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A wet weather episode possible early or mid period as a trough sits over the Northeast. Temperatures near normal, somewhat variable.

72 thoughts on “Sunday October 8 2023 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Any chance that blocking you mentioned could suppress next
    weekend’s system to the South?

    1. Yes, there is. One of the global models already has shown a subtle shift southward of the main axis of low pressure on its most recent run over previous ones. That just indicates, this far in advance, that a possible solution is south of where the consensus is now, given the blocking described, and the potential that it’s being under-forecast.

      This is one of the wildcards going through autumn and into winter.

      1. Thank you TK.
        I thought I noticed that subtle shift.
        Although I don’t care about suppression now, I sure would come Winter.

    1. interesting. A friend who lives in Gardner said her colors peaked a few days ago and didn’t last more than a day. My neighborhood is showing minimal color. What’s there is full and falling fast.

      Also I saw your get out of google jail free comment last night. Where do I apply 🙂

      2. This sugar maple is probably in the 150 – 200 year old range. It had been heavily tapped by a maple syrup guy. He stopped about 10 years ago, and we saw a remarkable improvement in the tree’s health. This year, the leaves just turned that brown color and are already dropping.

        I’m not sure about that card – you might try ebay 🙂

        1. I’m taking granddaughter to ride this afternoon. I’ll take the long way and check foliage here

          Off to check eBay 😉

  9. Beautiful morning.

    But the world is in a precarious place. I mentioned this a few weeks ago. We’re at the most dangerous point since 1989. Hot wars are occurring, imminent wars are brewing it you will.

    I’m physically sickened by the fact that young unarmed people – as many as 250 – attending a music festival in Israel (near the Gaza border) were massacred. Several kibbutzim were targeted, too. Many dead. Many missing. That hits home. My sister worked at a kibbutz several decades ago.

    Please don’t interpret what I’m saying to suggest I don’t understand Palestinian suffering. I do. Occupation and humiliation take a toll. For decades, Israeli retaliation for attacks on its soil invariably killed many innocent Palestinian civilians.

    But I detest the kind of terrorism Hamas commits. I also hated what the IRA inflicted in Britain in the 1970s and 80s. I lived in the UK in 1984; the attacks in London (Harrod’s) and Brighton (Conservative Party conference) were awful. I find terrorists invariably to be cowardly and mostly without any objectives other than to wreak havoc and cause misery.

    1. How much of this can be attributed to the far right policies
      of Benjamin Netanyahu? Everything just reached the boiling point. I would be a crying shame for innocent Israeli citizens
      to have beenkilled due to the Prime Ministers policies. That part of the world has NEVER been at peace and prospects don’t look so good.

    2. the news just keeps getting worst. Unfortunately like I said last night I think this area of the world will never really see piece at least in our life times. This area has gone through different religions being in control through its history from Jewish, to Christianity, to Muslim, back to Christianity to Jewish control. All doing atrocities while in power and while they are not. What is also happening is that this attack on Israel is connected to Russia and Iran and could easily lead to WW3 if things are not handled properly.

      1. Matt,
        My wife was saying exactly the same thing last night.
        Scary times.
        Iran gets involved directly, then Russia, then who knows what.
        I will be following closely to see exactly how this situation
        is handled.
        Best hope Iran stays the hell out of it.

    3. Mac’s sister lived in London in the 70s and 80s. I remember her stories of the unrest. I will never understand the hate and terror that is supposedly in the name of God. Holding a grudge with even one person is beyond my understanding but to kill and terrorize is …heck, I don’t even know what words to use. Matt, I do think there is some truth in what you say. We are in a world of hurt. Literally

  11. Brian O’Donovan has passed away. Had the pleasure of meeting him in August of 2022. Did not know he had already been diagnosed with glioblastoma (brain cancer, which Tim Wakefield and John McCain died of, too). There will be a void on my Saturday afternoons. I listened to his radio show. I’ll also miss seeing him at concerts. I’ve been to several concerts which he organized.
    https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2023-10-07/brian-odonovan-an-ambassador-for-celtic-music-and-irish-culture

    1. This has just been a really bad week.

      I’m glad the sun is shining. The fall foliage is beginning to appear. I think another dank day would not have been welcome given all that’s happened.

    2. So glad cheap Bob Kraft invested money into that big video board. Good news fans at the game, you can see the awful play close up.

      Fire the coach, then sell the team. Just not to cheap John Henry.

      2. Absolutely, BB is DONE!!!! Send him out to pasture.
        I hate the SOB anyway!!!!

        And KRAFT is a CHEAP BLEEP!!!!

      1. I think that after this game, Mac Jones’ NFL career is OVER!

        One word for the Patriots Piss-Poor Performance – PATHETIC!!!!!!

      2. How can you fault Jones when he has nothing. Nothing. BB has to go. Absolutely. How many sacs do they have? For defense, who is covering. The team is a mess and that goes directly to the head.

        1. I understand that,, but I do NOT like the way he has handled it. He had a bad case of “happy feet” today. I can’t stand that.

          He has to go along with that head strong moronic A***** coach!!

  14. And this week there were still some in the local sports media who believed this team could win 8 or 9 games this year …

    They’re awful, as in maybe 4 wins awful. It’s painfully obvious to anyone watching. This is MUCH worse than the Cam Newton year. O’Brien is certainly NOT the solution, either. He’s almost as incompetent as Patricia and Judge.

    I think it would eventually be cathartic for Bill if he were to be fired. He needs to be put out of his coaching misery. He gave us very good years. We’re grateful. But he’s done. And that’s okay. It’s just that he doesn’t realize it. Kraft would be doing Bill a huge favor by sacking him after today’s loss.

  15. BB spent last year demoralizing Jones. No one comes back from that without talented support. One of the things I admired most about Ted was his approach to young players who were struggling. He was not a good manager but one on one he was excellent. He never left the sox. Always at winter haven. Always calling the younger ones during season. Not sure if Brady does this since the majority were not aware Ted did. ‬They could sure use him.

  16. I think save one I may be boo’d off the blog for this. But those booing in the stands are part of the problem. I wonder how many think it’s productive to boo their kids or friends when they are struggling.

      1. No way he can play to potential. I said last year the best thing for him is to be released and find a team that has a coach. We saw his potential first season. The BB started playing with his head.

    2. You’re NOT wrong.

      The fanbase is spoiled, as others have mentioned.

      I’m okay with booing, but not at the players at this point. It’s the coach who should be booed off the field and back to Nantucket where he should retire in peace. He’s constructed a mostly talent-less roster. He’s mismanaged Mac Jones. Heck, he’s not even good at scheming.

  17. Well, at least we have the Bruins to look forward to.

    And while I’m not a basketball fan, the Celtics do have plenty of talent.

    And who knows, maybe with a new GM the Sox can turn things around a bit.

    1. Glad I’m not watching any more. Tried to get on my phone at barn but couldn’t. My heart aches for this team.

    2. He was a pick-up guitarist and played for some of the GREATS … Tina Turner, Sam Cooke, and the Isley Brothers … and probably others I can’t remember.

    1. Safe to say the starting QB is out !! But in no way is it all on him as this team has many problems & key injuries.

  24. So thoughts on the Patriots.
    1. Oline is the main issue this season, they are awful. Undiscipline, slow. They can’t pass or run block. Its aweful.
    2. coaching needs to be improved. Need more play action. Mac JOnes does better with than that open concepts and enough with the RPO shit it doesn’t work when you do not have a mobile qb. Get back to the bread and butter of what worked for 20 freakin years. It worked the first year of Mac Jones. GO BACK TO IT.
    3. Play from the inside -out, not the outside -in like they have been doing.
    4. Bill O’Brian I feel needs to have more control of that offense. Bill needs to worry about being the head coach.
    5. This off season no matter the placement in the draft, they need to grab a top 10 pick some how. They need to draft a QB,Reciever, and Oline.

    6. Though the defense has struggled the last two games, what defense wouldn’t if they never have a break and know that the offense can not pull off a win. The offense gives up bad field position, gives up points etc. If I was a defender my first priority now would be to remain healthy for next season.

    7. Though we would like to just blame the running backs for no run game, the Oline is the cause of that issue. If we had even a half competent Oline, the running game would have been better.

  25. The only thing I’ll say about today’s game is I was thoroughly entertained listening to Zolak on the radio (I was out all day and didn’t watch – just listened). Poor guy. 😉

    Weather thoughts. Well, nothing really to add. No changes in the short term. On the far end of the medium term we eye that chance of a significant low pressure impact in about 1 week. I remain of the opinion that the guidance is under-forecasting the pattern amplitude / blocking and as a result the positioning and strength of high pressure in Canada, and the reality will be a slower evolution of the system with the threat window ending up more Sunday-Monday than Saturday-Sunday.

    Time … will ….. tell ……..

    Bruins season opener is 3 days away!

  26. Thank god for the upcoming hockey and basketball seasons to (hopefully) save Boston sports. My how the Pats and Sox have fallen in this town.

  27. My wife called me out to the deck and said look straight up.

    She says the 5 or 6 moving stars in a line, nearly overhead, was star link. I’d not really heard of it before but it was neat to see.

      1. Someone posted a pic on the Sutton fb page wondering what it was. I have not seen it for months and would love to see again.

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