Monday October 9 2023 Forecast (7:09AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure will sit and spin across southeastern Canada for the next several days, pretty much until we get to late this week, and will be the primary driver of the weather across our region. One weak disturbance exits via Cape Cod first thing in the morning but any light showers associated with it are already offshore, so just expect a sun/cloud mix today. Another disturbance from the west will pass by on Tuesday with scattered showers, but I don’t expect this to be much of a rain producer for the region. A similar and probably even weaker system comes by on Thursday with a brief shower threat, while Wednesday is a dry day with a weak high pressure area nosing in to the south of the upper low. An extension of central Canadian high pressure will reach into New England on Friday which will also be dry, but we may see some clouds across at least our southern sky by then as there will be a frontal boundary to our south…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 interior, 45-52 coastal plain. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A possible rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

And now the forecast dilemma for the October 14-15 weekend. The question remains, how will a broad area of low pressure, part of a large scale blocking pattern with high pressure in central Canada and low pressure to the south, impact our region? My current leaning remains that blocking is strong enough and progress slow enough so that the initial rain area has difficulty reaching New England, and stays to the southwest, with a drier forecast for our region on the Saturday, and low pressure finally bringing a better chance of widespread rain Sunday and possibly Monday (October 16), followed by drier weather toward the middle of next week. Obviously this is not set in stone and something to track and fine-tune in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

A wet weather episode possible early or mid period with another trough moving through. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal overall.

35 thoughts on “Monday October 9 2023 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  6. Great pattern to keep the storms to the south of us this coming winter. I’m quite sure some of these storms will make it up into our area.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Professor Claudia Goldin (Harvard) won the Nobel prize in economics. Her work on explaining the gender gap in pay is so important. Plus, she’s an economic historian.

    Economics is still dominated by men, more so than the natural sciences (chemistry, physics). But that’s beginning to change a bit. My Ph D advisor, Mary Morgan (London School of Economics – and also an economic historian), told me in the 1990s that she was hopeful we’d see a shift in the field. Well, we now have a grand total of 2 two female Nobel prize winners in economics. In 2019, Esther Duflo (MIT) won a prize, and now Goldin.

  14. For those that like winter weather, This el-nino is certainly not going to be your typical east based El-Nino. QBO, IOD, all different than the other major el-nino seasons. If the MJO is active this winter I think we might see some good winter weather. Just like hurricane season, its going to be rather interesting what happens this winter in terms of forecasting. Leaning with the 2009-2010 and
    1991-1992 being ok analogs right now. Would throw out any winter forecast that wants to use 2015 -2016 or 1997 season at the moment.

    1. Heading toward this winter I think our biggest wild card of all is the HT effect. I’m fascinated by it…

        1. Hunga Tonga .. already having significant impact on the global patterns and will continue to do so for months, maybe even a couple / few more years.

  15. Greetings from 38,000 feet over southeastern Alaska. Pictures from the weekend will be posted in the next day or two (we won’t even be back home until tomorrow AM after a redeye from Seattle tonight). Lowell split the weekend series, losing in OT on Saturday (don’t ask me about the refs, who played a HUGE hand in that game), then winning on Sunday. Didn’t watch any of the Pats, so I won’t comment on it, other than to say that what I posted on here last week still stands. Bruins start Wednesday, and I’ll be at the Garden for it. Hockey Season is my happy time.

    One thing I haven’t seen anyone mention yet in terms of weather is that we’re going to have a recurving typhoon in the Pacific in the next few days. Models have it as rather potent system in the Gulf of Alaska by the beginning of next week. Systems like this tend to alter/amplify the pattern, and the models do not do well picking it up well in advance. So, treat anything beyond Day 6 or so with even less confidence than usual.

    1. Go Bs!
      Looking forward to the photos…

      I am curious how the typhoon will impact the pattern.

  16. Tom and SClarke thank you. All kids and grandkids were on the deck to see starlink tonight. I posted here many months ago that I’d seen it and shared a photo. It was maybe five satellites then. I couldn’t count how many there are now. Absolutely amazing

      1. amazing. One friend here said there would eventually be tens of thousands of them. Is that accurate?

        As an aside. My oldest’s bunny is at the emergency vet. I know it sounds like just a bunny but it is amazing how smart they are. She has two who are bonded. They have run of the house and are incredibly smart. Anyway. Since there were five satellites last time I saw starlink I told daughter each was a special,angel watching over the bunny Wellllllll. We apparently have a whole lot of special angels.

          1. I’d be shocked if he were not correct. But still…Absolutely mind boggling. A home school project tomorrow is to learn more about this.

  17. Going to be a fun s..t show game next week between two bad teams. One has some talent but an incompetent coach. The other has no talent and a coach with diminishing skills.

    1. Assume you are referring to football but May be wrong. To me this is truly sad. I’m very sure BB in his ineptness has gotten into mac Jones head. The possibility that he has destroyed a talented young played is real. We saw first season the potential Jones had. How many more will he be allowed to destroy before he is ousted.

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