Thursday October 12 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A westerly air flow continues today and Friday around the base of a large low pressure area in eastern Canada. The difference between today and tomorrow will be the temperature, which will be milder today and cooler tomorrow after a cold front goes through the region. This front may kick off a few passing showers this afternoon and early evening, otherwise generally dry weather will prevail. Canadian high pressure noses into New England later Friday as the low in Canada drifts eastward. But that low pressure area is also going to be a player in our weekend weather, not bringing us wet weather, but rather helping us avoid it, for the most part. The next low from the Ohio Valley, once slated by guidance to soak the weekend, will be suppressed southward enough to be a miss, at least with its rain shield. The cloud shield will overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, probably even into Monday as well. But if we’re going to get any “wet” weather it’s more likely to be in the form of drizzle on a moistening northeasterly air flow to the north of the storm, and this would most likely take places closer to the eastern and southern coastal areas Sunday into Monday. Even that forecast may be too pessimistic if dry air is enough to overcome this. If that’s the case, we are technically in the midst of a fairly long dry stretch.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, favoring southern NH and northern MA. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle, favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle, favoring southern and eastern coastal areas. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of drizzle favoring eastern and southern areas in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Watching another potential coastal low to our south by the middle of next week, and depending on how long that hangs around, another possible frontal system from the west near the end of the period. But don’t read this as a relentless wet/stormy pattern, as the first may be pushed to the south, and the second could be a minor system or timed more slowly.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Difficult to time any system that threaten wet weather. One may be around early, and another later in the period. No major temp extreme expected, but the trend is for cooler over warmer.

45 thoughts on “Thursday October 12 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Having trouble falling asleep last night I decided to count the post-season series wins for the Red Sox since 1999. It’s an impressive 17. In fact, they’ve gone 17 and 8 in the post season in terms of series wins and losses. And once they made it to the WS they never lost a series. Needless to say, all this counting and trying to remember the outcome of playoff series put me to sleep.

      1. The fact that they have never lost a WS once they make it is what I have been always preaching here. I don’t even have all that much issue with the Patriots either, at least for now. It’s the Bruins and Celtics postseasons that have so frustrated me the past number of years now. 🙂

        A team should really have the ultimate advantage of a home game 7 imo.

  11. Last night Pete was hopeful that it would stay South, but did say he was worried it might creep Northward.

    Pete is good.

    Will the Euro follow?

    what will later runs show?

      2. AccuWeather, and they are actually forecasting below normal snow for Boston despite the catch-me-and-click headline. 🙂

        They give a prediction for the city of 38-44 inches. The 30-year average is 49 inches.

          1. 38-44 I think. I read it last week so I forget. 🙂

            I think the real point they were trying to make was “more snow than last year”, which of course won’t be hard to do anyway. But they nailed the headline if they want ppl to read it.

            I am leery of forecast that are not mentioning the volcano’s influence on the global pattern. I think that’s a bigger factor than many, but since this is a first-time thing in our history to observe, there are a lot of question to be answered. This is a fascinating time to be a scientist in this field.

            1. Some of the folks I have emailed seem to believe climate change co ti use to be the major factor. I have heard from only 4.

              Do you have sources you can share

              1. Long term climate change is. My reference is to the shorter-term sudden changes in stratospheric moisture due to the volcano. I think that may have a bigger impact on winter than anything else, or at least be a major factor.

                The specifics are all hypotheses at this point, since it hasn’t happened yet, and then longer-term study will be needed to see just how much impact there was. We’re dealing with something we have not been able to observe.

                Climate change is an ongoing, long-term process. HT volcano was sudden, and in a massive scale. The impact will be more immediate, but also more temporary, as in up to a few years, while longer-term shifts in climate impact decades, or longer…

                I’ll gather some of the stories I’ve read soon and link them. NASA and NOAA will be among them.

                1. Awesome thank you. I have the distinct impression the folks I’ve heard from so far think the impact will be there but not to a huge degree. All pointed out flooding was an issue prior to HT. Most…maybe all….are concerned deniers will use it as another reason to do nothing. This country is failing on that front already.

  20. Upon review of the 12z info, there are NO changes to my forecast at this time. Every piece of guidance came in right where I figured. GFS has a bit too much northern extent on the precip shield, as is often the case.

    The depiction by the Canadian model is the one I feel most likely to verify. Pay more attention to this model. It’s improved with 2 recent upgrades and his whomping the GFS in performance, about tied with the ECMWF.

    I’m off to do some photos for high school football. This evening Woburn is hosting Lexington.

    Hey Vicki we travel to Belmont next week! 🙂

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