Monday October 16 2023 Forecast (6:59AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

We have some weather changes coming up this week, but we start out with a couple more days under the influence of a large low pressure circulation, centered to our northeast in the maritime provinces of Canada. A couple spokes of energy rotating around this feature will keep our weather somewhat unsettled through Tuesday, with lots of clouds, and some episodes of rain showers. Today’s shower activity will have a bit more coverage than Tuesday’s and also be a bit heavier in some locations, but don’t expect an all-day rain anywhere. That’s not in the cards. Along with this, we’ll have breezy conditions and temperatures running a little below normal during the daylight hours, but not all that chilly, compared to normal, during the nighttime hours while the cloud cover is persistent. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a return to fair weather with a warming trend as high pressure builds in and then drifts to the east, eventually offshore. This sets the stage for a southerly wind on Friday bringing in more humid air and an increase in cloud cover again, and eventually a rain shower threat by evening or night as a frontal system and trough approaches from the west. Timing details will need to be worked out.

TODAY: Cloudy start with early morning rain showers mainly from I-95 to the South Coast, then scattered showers developing and moving in from north to south midday and afternoon, a few of which can produce small hail. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible, especially in the morning and midday hours. Highs 54-61. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Evening or nighttime rain showers probable. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Upper level low pressure moves through the Northeast on the October 21-22 weekend, but the surface feature producing most of the rainfall may move through quickly enough so that the wettest weather occurs at the very start of the weekend, followed by mostly dry, breezy, cool weather with only isolated rain showers possible after that. Will monitor and adjust as needed. Beyond that, looking for high pressure to return with fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Next trough looks less potent bringing a minor rain shower chance early in the period, followed by high pressure and dry weather again but somewhat variable temperatures.

56 thoughts on “Monday October 16 2023 Forecast (6:59AM)”

  10. Hadi, I responded to your comment at the end of yesterdays blog. I have been thinking how you often mentioned this and am very disappointed in myself that I did not point it out before you did.

  13. Vicki, when I was in Washington state in 2018 and in the hills and mountains, I was told to avoid running on certain paths because cougars with cubs were out and about. I wound up running on a trail that was adjacent to a parking lot.

    1. I had heard reports of cougars in Washington when Mac’s sister lived in Spokane. And I believe I’ve heard mention of them even down into the Hollywood hills.

      Wise idea to run adjacent to the parking lot. Yikes

      1. Joshua, with wildlife starting to encroach into even small to medium size cities, don’t be surprised if you come across something on your Esplanade run one day. If I recall, one day this past summer there were coyote sightings in JPD’s neighborhood. Maybe he can confirm?

        As for that cougar encounter, that guy really kept his head. Amazing that he was able to slowly walk backwards without tripping as there were a lot of stones on that dirt path.

        1. A more accurate description of what’s going on is WE are encroaching on the wildlife with our selfish obsession with developing every piece of land we can possibly get to.

          2. When I was on my way back to the airport in Anchorage last Monday morning, we had a moose just strolling right across the airport access road (3 lanes on each side). That was actually the 2nd time during the weekend we had a moose cross the road. We also saw a black bear strolling along the side of the road at one point.

            1. My friend in Leominster walking along on her daily walk sees bobcats and other various creatures just roaming around.

        2. We have coyote through our yard regularly. I do think there have been some in the city. They don’t bother with us or the dogs. I am a bit of an odd ball. I look at I more as we are encroaching on them. 😉

  14. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    I suppose warmth and humidity could re-establish again in the Gulf of Mexico and possibly lead to late season tropical activity, but today and for the next many days, there’s no chance of anything tropical.

    The WHOLE Gulf has had a surge of mild, but more importantly dry air throughout all of it. These instability clouds are a result of mild, dry air going over still, very warm water.

    1. Even anyone traveling to Cancun would find it relatively mild and dry.

      Cold front all the way into mid Cuba.

      Southeast of that in the clear skies is where the tropical humidity has been suppressed to.

  15. Question for NFL rules experts. After a safety, the team who was tackled in its own end zone must punt the ball. I assume the ball must go at least 10 yards beyond the line. This part is clear. But can the punter kick the ball down and make it bounce to induce a possible bobble or have it hit off someone so that it becomes a ball which the kicking team can recover? I assume not, given that the Patriots kicker yesterday just lofted the ball. It was a short kick, but still there was no kicking the ball down to make it bounce.

    2. Unlike a drop-kick, which must bounce off the ground before you kick it, after a safety you must do a free kick, which means you need to kick it before it hits the ground. Trying to get one to bounce is close to impossible.

      1. The rain is on and off here too. The way it works is that my wife is trying to get some plants into the ground. When she goes outside, the rain in ON, even if the sun it out. When she comes in the rain is OFF 🙂

  19. 12z op runs for global guidance.
    GFS still holds with the low passing west of our region Saturday while the GEM / ECMWF have shifted that system offshore, passing south and east of New England. Each scenario produces rainfall, not excessive, and the details vary. The “driest” solution is the Canadian model.

      1. Haha if only I had a hand in it.

        I’d like to see more dry than wet. My son is going to be camping for 3 nights in south central MA starting Friday.

        1. So far so good for grilling too. I was trying to come up with a plan B but you seem to have chased that away too

          Where in south central. I’m almost south central but not as south central as SouthCentral 😀

  20. I’ve timed my trip perfectly down to Sarasota, the first front of the cooler season has swept the humidity all the way past Cuba. Gulf temperatures still around 80 degrees.
    I’m going down Wednesday. I’m so glad I won’t be around here this upcoming weekend.

    1. Actually, that’s not true, which is the entire point of my discussion above today. I never said anything about a total wash-out.

  22. Ah my neck of the woods, I hope he enjoys himself. I too am hoping for the drier scenario for Sunday, as I’m taking the family to the Pats vs Bills game.

    1. Sunday looks similar to yesterday in many regards. Dry (can’t rule out a passing sprinkle), cloud/sun mix, cool, gusty breeze.

  26. Add this little event along the coast to a warmer planet with warmer oceans.

    Cape Ann stations over 0.5 inches, yellow and reds sitting over them from ocean enhanced showers. And we’re doing ok down here in eastern marshfield too.

    1. Goodness. Interesting color scheme over you and cape Ann on the radar.

      Maybe talk to TK. He did a great job regulating the showers here today.

  27. just wanted to add another thing about the Patriots. Yesterday, they went back to the traditional Patriot running game instead of trying to do RPO stuff, they went back to the bread and butter of the Patriots running game and it improved. Time to go back to that and I think the Patriots will be better.

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