Tuesday October 17 2023 Forecast (6:55AM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

An upper level low pressure area continues its hold on the region today with a fair amount of clouds and a few rain showers around at times, especially this morning and closer to the eastern coastal areas. This low relinquishes its grip on Wednesday with the shower chance going away, but some clouds still popping up due to the chilly air that remains aloft. High pressure provides us with the “pick of the week” on Thursday, which will be fair and milder. But that weather doesn’t hang around as a southerly air flow on the back side of the high, and yet another approaching trough from the west put us into an unsettled stretch once again later this week. However, I’m not convinced that this stretch of weather will end up all that wet. I do think Friday’s a mild, humid day with lots of clouds and passing rain showers that will be impossible to try timing this far in advance – unsettled, but not “washed out”. As a frontal boundary gets to our east, I’m seeing signs that a few pieces of energy are not really going to fully come together until they are beyond our region, and with this process underway Saturday, I do expect unsettled weather with lots of clouds and a rain chance, but it may be a situation where we see low pressure’s main influence shifting offshore, keeping most of its rain there, and leaving us with a cooler east to northeast wind under a blanket of clouds, but with only limited rainfall, and the potential for long stretches that are rain-free. Still not an ideal set-up, but we may avoid a Saturday soaker just the same. Obviously, monitoring and fine-tuning is needed as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Passing rain showers possible, a few may contain small hail and/or graupel. Highs 54-61. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers probable. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers likely. Lows 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Low pressure organizes and strengthens but will be pulling away from our region into eastern Canada with drier, breezy, cool weather October 22 to finish the weekend, then fair and breezy weather lingering into October 23. High pressure builds in with fair and more tranquil weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Next trough looks less potent bringing a minor rain shower chance early in the period, followed by high pressure and dry weather again but somewhat variable temperatures as we head down the home stretch of the month.

34 thoughts on “Tuesday October 17 2023 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I think Rockport, Gloucester, Cape Ann area ended up close to an inch of rain last night and I think easternmost Marshfield got clipped with up to 0.40 inches.

    This early morning, there continues to be some beautiful, tall cumulus in the eastern third of the sky, while the rest of the sky is pretty much clear.

    2. There was a nice little covergence zone there, parallel to the air flow (so it didn’t move much), and enhanced a bit by the ocean, and sustained by an anomalous cold pool aloft, which didn’t need the solar heating to sustain showers.

  3. Beware: You’ll hear more hype warnings about “another wet weekend”. Well, other than briefly along the South Coast, last weekend was dry, so there’s no “string of wet weekends”. And this coming weekend will probably be dry more hours than wet in most (if not all) locations, EVEN IF the Saturday scenario is wetter than I have described above.

    This is what I mean by “your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog” in my description. That stuff is bullcrap. 🙂

    1. I have been hearing about this big weekend rainstorm.
      not here, but elsewhere.

      Should be interesting, but I think you are correct.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Past the mid way point in October cruising rapidly towards Winter. What will it do? What will it do?

    I strongly suspect BELOW average snowfall. We shall see

  6. Thanks TK.

    Yeah wait and see approach for the weekend.

    Strong El Niño like forecasted is similar to 2016 and let’s say it was way above average temps. I would lean closer to average snow and above average temps. This pattern if it stays would be fun come winter.

    1. Yes, you certainly can lean more towards average. I am not buying that at this point. I could change my mind between now
      and the deadline for submitting our Winter predictions. 🙂
      We shall see.

    2. October is their snowiest month on average with a normal of 7.7″. October of 2011 saw 23.8″ there, the snowiest month on record, dating back to 1920.

      1. Thanks SAK. Was just checking that while waiting for Dr appt. Oct 16, 1926. Chart is small but looks like about 18.

    1. The last couple days have been great for cloud-watching. I have a cool time lapse from last evening to share later. 🙂

    1. Nice but not close enough to here 🙁 . We typically went to Mac’s uncles place in Stowe VT for Veterans Day weekend. The driveway up is a bit under a half mile. Quite often we would have to arrange to have it plowed before our arrival.

  17. Thanks, TK.

    Hard to concentrate on anything today as the world kind of burns around us. There have been a number of explosive moments globally during my lifetime, but this month ranks right up there among the worst. And I don’t see any de-escalation.

    1. I sure agree. I’ve been all over the place. One reason I headed to the deck. It grounds me. But even that…..

      Just too much

Comments are closed.