Thursday October 19 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

High pressure will be located just to the south and east of our region today, and with a bit of chilly air still above, we’ll see a sun/cloud mix. A complex weather system then approaches and moves into the region from the south and west on Friday into Saturday. As previously mentioned, we’re looking at 3 main players, a low pressure center moving up the coast via the Mid Atlantic, a frontal system from the west, and a low pressure area diving east southeast through the Midwest, which will eventually join the party. I’m still of the opinion that the majority of the rainfall will occur Friday night to very early Saturday with the passage of the initial low, after which the frontal boundary will produce some Saturday showers, but allow for rain-free episodes. The entire system will be evolving into a new low pressure area, really getting going during Sunday when the 3rd piece of the puzzle is in place. By then, it’s beyond us, and other than some potential back-lash showers, we’ll round out the weekend windy, chilly, and mostly dry. Influence from the system will linger through Monday with fair, breezy, chilly weather.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 54-61. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs 58-65. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 5-15 MPH late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 41-48. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

October 24 may dawn with widespread frost and the day will be fair, chilly, and tranquil under high pressure. The high shifts eastward with fair, milder weather midweek. Next trough and frontal system should be less potent and quicker-moving with a briefer shower threat sometime between October 26 and early October 28 – more precise timing to be determined.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Dry weather, below normal temps early in the period, then fair and milder as high pressure dominates, then another trough may bring unsettled weather late in the period.

51 thoughts on “Thursday October 19 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  2. Eagerly awaiting the “S” word to show up in the forecast….or even one of the “f” words (flakes and flurries).

  8. I’m glad this person was rescued in the White Mountains. See link below. But why on earth would someone climb Huntington’s Ravine – THE toughest trail in the Northeast – without proper gear. I know precisely the area where the person had his mishap. Climbed there in fact many times. Personally, even in my younger years I would not be climbing there in the kind of weather they’ve been having (cold rain at lower elevations and snow in the upper elevations). Even with proper gear, frankly. But without gear is just mind-boggling. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2023/10/18/injured-hiker-rescued-from-white-mountains-during-13-hour-effort-in-dangerous-conditions/?p1=hp_featurestack

    1. I climb the Whites frequently and have been invited to go on a guide-led hike with others up Huntington’s Ravine and have declined. I have 100 climbs under my belt, but there is a line in the sand and Huntington’s Ravine is on the wrong side of that line for me.

  11. Longshot, I’m with you. When I climbed Huntington’s Ravine I was a teenager and in my early 20s and did not have the trepidation I have now.

    2. I’ve climbed up Lions Head and down Tuckerman’s a couple of times. STUPIDLY without proper gear, including clothing and water. STUPID DUMB_ASS MOVE!!!!!

      1. Well I didn’t climb naked, but climbed in Shorts and tee shirt with sneakers in September when it was 30 degrees at the summit!! 🙂

        1. We all make mistakes.

          I climbed up Tuckerman’s with my son. He was 7. It was July and 80F at Pinkham Notch. I stupidly decided to climb with practically no back-up clothes. Well, by the time we got to the lip of the ravine it was 38F and foggy. A person coming down said there was freezing fog on the rock pile. So we decided to descend.

          1. My dad skied Tuckerman and the head wall regularly. My son hiked Washington a couple of times. He also walked a good portion of the Appalachian. It took weeks of preparation. I suspect as you have both said, Washington takes many by surprise

    1. This would be a beautiful thing !!

      Sorry folks 🙂

      Although with above avg precip, it can still avg or above avg snow if you match the small cold to the moisture.

      1. Using data from Lowell (back to 1929), winters (Dec-Feb) with above normal temperatures, above normal precipitation, and above normal snowfall:

        1945-46 Neutral
        1951-52 Moderate El Nino
        1982-83 Very Strong El Nino
        2005-06 Weak La Nina
        2012-13 Neutral

  18. Thanks TK. Timing on the heaviest rain Saturday? I see the GFS and EURO showing steadier rain on Saturday.

  21. So the “big” NOAA winter outlook is nothing special, but just their monthly update of the one-month, three-month, and long-lead outlooks. It’s funny watching media make a big deal of it. But you can pick out a DEC-FEB anywhere in there, and even two sets of them for a while since they go out 14 months.

    Not surprised about: They went typical El Nino conditions.

    Surprised about: They went typical El Nino conditions without even mentioning the possible Hunga Tonga effect at all in their discussion. They are I are in high disagreement about that factoring into the winter. I’m sorry, but you simply cannot have that big a change in part of the atmosphere in a matter of hours / weeks / months and leave it negligible.

    Is it possible the outlook would still be the same? Sure, yes, it is. But at least mention it and why you think it doesn’t change things. That’s my feeling on it.

      1. I will be, probably in a comment setting – Twitter or FB. See if I can get them to comment on it in a public forum. I’d genuinely like to know what they think.

        1. The folks I’ve emailed have been very forthcoming. I’ve always liked one on one as response is typically more open and understanding corporate often contractually limits folks. Will be interested to see how your approach works.

          1. My thought is to create a discussion on the subject. I don’t think it’s being talked about enough in the scientific community.

            1. I’d be very interested to follow that discussion. I have the impression from responses I get that folks believe that while its impact exists it is in a small form compared to climate.

              Did you by chance dig out links to its impact. I found only the ones shared with me and a few I found. I posted all on here

  23. TK, almost everyone I speak to about the weather I finish the conversation by saying “beware of the Hunga Tonga effect” and walk away. I want them to be puzzled and look it up to get educated on the topic. It’s a great conversation ender, though I did it works well as a pick up line at a bar.

    3. Joshua, you out there working it with “Hunga Tonga”. Could you imagine using that line, I might get whacked if I tried that at a bar. Ha

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