Saturday October 21 2023 Forecast (8:22AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Unsettled weather arrived yesterday and continues through today, but we get through the morning hours without much rain in a good portion of the WHW forecast area, with one swath of showers clipping Cape Cod and largely over the water, and another one starting to move in from the west with the previously mentioned “part 2” of the system. It is this frontal boundary and developing low that will bring us most of our wet weather this afternoon and evening as it moves through. It then gets far enough north to pull the rain shield northeast and north with it, but the system will be slowing down as the larger scale trough “goes negative” or tilts westward. An increasing westerly air flow will overtake our region tonight into Sunday while we are in a drier slot. Later Sunday, the trough that used to be the original parent low will come swinging back south southeast across our region. It will contain an area of rain but the trend is for this to break up / dry up as it heads through our region, so still we see the greatest chance of Sunday’s late-day / evening rainfall in southern NH and diminishing to just patchy / showery as it heads to the south, so that some areas will see nothing at all from it. It will shift the wind to the northwest Sunday night and Monday, a gusty breeze, with chilly autumn air. High pressure then builds in Monday night setting the stage for a probable fairly widespread frost Tuesday morning. Tuesday itself will be a very nice autumn day with a milder afternoon after that chilly start. Nice weather including a warm-up is in the cards for Wednesday as we get into a southwesterly air flow on the back side of high pressure.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periodic rain showers in the morning. Widespread rain in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts along the coast, becoming variable again before shifting to NW to W and increasing to 15-25 MPH toward evening.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early evening with rain ending from south to north. Breaking clouds thereafter. Lows 45-52. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Rain chance is highest in southern NH mid to late afternoon and into northeastern MA later in the day. Highs 52-59. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with numerous to scattered showers southeastern NH and northeastern MA early, scattered to isolated showers possible elsewhere, then a clearing trend overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations and especially over lakes/ponds. Frost likely especially outside urban centers and away from the immediate shoreline. Lows 35-42, 28-35 in normal cold spots. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind calm early, then SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

During the home stretch of October we’ll get into a more westerly fast flow with a couple of frontal boundaries to watch. These systems should carry less moisture but can trigger sharper temperature changes, including shots of chilly air from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Still low confidence but the trend here is for more moisture to be involved from the south and southwest with higher precipitation chances once again as we get into the early days of November. I can do a more specific outlook for Halloween as we get a little closer to it.

40 thoughts on “Saturday October 21 2023 Forecast (8:22AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Always curious in these particular setups how strong the wind will be on coastal south shore and the Cape on these rapidly deepening lows just after they pass by.

    As we know, sometimes the wind can overachieve on the immediate backside of the low.

    1. I think the deepening rate is slow enough and the low is elongated in such a way that the wind will not be particularly strong there. Notable, yes, but probably not an overachiever.

    1. I was just looking at some pics I took of significant street flooding in Woburn. That was the event that started the breaking of the 2016 drought.

  9. What do you think about rainfall amounts and wind speed in the Natick area this weekend? Never know if we are in the coastal plain or not. Thanks.

    1. No big changes in the original thinking. Maybe 0.75, most of it today (late morning to early evening).

  14. Thanks TK.

    Pouring here and up to 1.08″ on the event. 0.51″ of that fell yesterday and 0.58″ since midnight.

    The heaviest in my area looks to be winding down soon though so not going to end up with as much rain here as I thought last night.

    Vicki – maybe a shot a 2″ out your way? Looks like you have several hours of moderate to heavy rain incoming.

    1. Looking that way. Was hoping for a break so granddaughter can ride. Show is tomorrow and not a good idea to not exercise the sillies out of a horse before a show, especially with scary wind tomorrow.

    1. Those open Pacific Ocean waves were huge when we were there on a normal day so can’t imagine what it is like standing on that beach today. There are no swimming signs posted along the length of that beach as the waters there are too dangerous with the rip currents.

  18. Plenty of rain here in Boston. Got caught in rather heavy, steady rain while doing some shopping. That’s been a theme this summer and fall, though much less so in recent weeks.

  21. Got word this morning that my brother tested Covid positive. The rehab has had it since he was admitted but numbers are increasing. I have not been happy with the way they have handled it or much of anything. Plus is he loves his PT guy and a couple of his nurses. To say I am worried would be an understatement

  22. When will the peak winds be in the metro west area and are you still looking for around 30 mph gusts? Hopefully decreasing before the Pats game.

    Thanks.

    1. Just issued the new update. There isn’t really a peak. It’s just a breezy / windy day, as well as tonight, and tomorrow.

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