Monday October 23 2023 Forecast (7:40AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

And now for something different. Upper level low pressure waves bye-bye today and heads off through eastern Canada. Meanwhile, to our southwest, high pressure ridging builds across the southeastern US early this week and establish itself pretty firmly through mid week and even beyond. This is going to play the biggest role in our weather this week, initiating a warm up that hangs around a while. Since we won’t be under the ridge itself, more on the edge of it, we’ll still be dealing with some systems moving along the jet stream, but these are also instrumental in helping to bring in the warmer air too, and what they won’t do this time is dump a lot of rain on us. First, we keep a northwest breeze and sun/cloud mix today as the last of the upper low impacts the region. Tonight, while we set up good radiational cooling and a likely frost for interior areas, some of this may be limited by a temperature-capping advancing cloud deck as warmer air moves in aloft. These clouds will hang around early Tuesday as a warm front passes by quietly, then we’ll increase the sun and see a nice temperature recovery after the chilly start. It will cool down again Tuesday night with high pressure over the region and a clear sky but any frost would be confined to interior valley locations, along with patches of ground fog. Mid to late week, high pressure shifts offshore, and we’ll be in a southwesterly air flow with fair weather and above normal temperatures, though some clouds will move through from time to time with energy traveling along the jet stream.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Areas of frost interior suburban and rural areas. Fog patches form in low elevations and over ponds. Lows 33-40 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban locations. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sunshine. Highs 56-63. Wind calm early, then SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Overall a westerly flow pattern will dominate the weather. What we will have to fine-tune is the position of a frontal boundary that will exist between the warmer ridge of high pressure trying to hang on to our south while colder air makes attempts to move down from Canada. So some up and down temps are likely, but leaning toward a mild to warm start then a step by step cool down. The frontal boundary is not expected to produce much other than a couple rounds of rain showers, as it stands now. Just have to work out the timing of these threats. For now lean toward October 29-30.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A more northwesterly flow should allow for chilly air from Canada to become more dominant during the early days of November, along with a mostly dry pattern.

29 thoughts on “Monday October 23 2023 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  4. Nice stretch of weather is upon us, boring as it may be.
    Autumn doesn’t offer much in the way of weather for me as I like the action. Anxiously awaiting full-blown SNOW season, albeit likely limited this season, but still should be better than last year.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Houston Astros are a peculiar team. Remember 2019 when in the World Series they lost all 4 games at home and won all 3 games on the road. Well, that may happen again in this year’s ALCS. In baseball, home field advantage should count at least a little. I mean you’ve got an actual advantage in terms of having the last at-bat, plus the fans.

    By the way, why the hell did the Red Sox not resign Eovaldi? Among the MANY mistakes Chaim Bloom made, that may be one of the dumbest. For that matter, why wasn’t Wacha resigned? The Wacha replacement, Kluber, was like flushing $10 million down the toilet.

    1. The sox are EXPERTS at flushing millions down the toilet.

      NOT re-signing Evoldi was a DUMB_ASS MOVE!!!!

      I don’t think the red sox are serious about winning anymore!

  10. Thanks TK
    If the Astros win tonight they will be the first team to reach the world series with a losing home record.

  13. No more dizziness for me. Well until next summer. I was beginning to worry about it. I felt so unwell during periods of humidity and the dizziness wasn’t fun. That’s all gone now. A natural experiment, if you will. It’s clear that some bodies like mine cannot handle heat (well, >80F) and high humidity, at least not as they age.

    Besides staying for parts of summers in England where my daughter lives, maybe it does make sense for me to soon move north, perhaps near my sister in Vermont. It gets hot there, for sure, but not as humid as here, it also cools off much more at night than here, and the heat isn’t as prolonged as here.

    1. Wow. Thought this was time one was a mile or so from here. But it isn’t. And now I’m trying to remember it.

      Thank you, JJ

  15. Boston may have a nearly 3 inch deficit for precipitation for the month if things go the way I expect them to. It’s been quite dry!

    23 days in, only 4 days with measurable rain (Oct 7, 16, 20, & 21). I don’t see them getting any measurable rain through Saturday. Minor to moderate chance of a light amount Sunday and/or Monday, based on current timing. If that fails, the 0.80 that they have so far may be closer to their monthly total, and the average for the month is about 4 inches (4.03 to be exact).

    …………………….

    Also, once the stratocumulus dissipates this evening, we’re only going to have a few hours of clear sky to radiate before a blanket of high to middle clouds moves in. So frost may be confined to lower elevations inland where the temp can fall the quickest.

  16. We may have another Game 7 on our hands if Arizona can hold on to its lead.

    This has been an awesome NLCS and ALCS.

  18. If a Texas Arizona World Series happens Arizona would be going for its second world series title. Texas would be going for its first. Texas lost in the World Series in back to back years in 2010 and 2011.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Early season snowcover is building in Alaska…

    NWS Fairbanks
    @NWSFairbanks

    Walkin’ in a Winter Wonderland
    We picked up 3.5″ of snow yesterday 10/22 with an additional 0.5″ expected in Fairbanks tonight.
    Our snow depth currently is 9″ and our season total is 15.4″ which is nearly double our normal value by this time in the season️☃️
    #akwx #snowy

    https://x.com/NWSFairbanks/status/1716384333370724610?s=20

  20. JJ, the 2011 Texas collapse to St. Louis was epic. Down to their last strike on several occasions and in different innings. Cards came back. It was an unbelievable Game 6, right up there with Sox-Reds in 1975.

    When a playoff series is good in baseball and hockey there’s nothing else like it.

  21. If you’re the number one seed is it possible to request that all of your games be played on the road. This holds for both Houston and Texas, by the way. Some weird stuff.

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