Tuesday October 24 2023 Forecast (6:58AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Overnight, there were some lingering patches of stratocumulus clouds around, but the shield of high and mid level clouds held off long enough to allow temps to fall to 35-40 over the interior low elevations, where some frost has likely occurred for the first time this season. Temperatures will stay above 40 in urban areas and along the coast. A batch of clouds with warm air moving in aloft will move through the region this morning and midday but give way to more sun as the day goes on, and this is the start of a warming trend that will last through late this week, along with dry weather. This will be caused by a significant ridge of high pressure and a related surface low to our south. We will have to deal with periods of cloudiness with disturbances moving along the jet stream just to our north. Right now, it continues to look like a surface frontal boundary separating our mild air from colder Canadian air will stay to our north into the weekend. There is no rain in the forecast for the WHW region for the next 5 days.

TODAY: Variably cloudy through midday then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind calm, then SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-71. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

A general westerly flow pattern will rule our weather from the end of October into the first couple days of November. We’ll see upper high pressure weaken and allow the frontal boundary to the north to get into our region early in the period. This front, which may have a couple weak waves of low pressure traveling along it, will be responsible for a rain shower threat from later October 29 to early October 31, based on current timing, but adjustments will take place to pin down more specific timing. However, this does not look like a significant rain-producing situation. Temperatures trend cooler to colder. Watch for one more potential low pressure wave traveling by the region with a precipitation threat toward the end of the period, but cannot be confident of that this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Overall pattern looks dry, chilly to start, then trending milder during this period, as high pressure dominates, first sending a chilly northwesterly air flow in, then settling to the south with a more west to southwest air flow thereafter.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday October 24 2023 Forecast (6:58AM)”

  2. For those who enjoy the folklore, the woolybear has a very wide brown band this year. This is read as a “prediction” for a mild winter ahead.

    Of course, there is ZERO correlation between the width of the brown band and the coming winter. The brown band is determined by several factors, all of them taking place before the emergence of the caterpillar, and has absolutely no meaning regarding the future. Neither animals nor plants have the ability to predict the future, only react to the past and present.

    1. Cool, TK, and I agree. I saw one of the little critters a weekish ago, took and photo and meant to share it here. Of course I forgot and now can’t find photo. I watched them for years and never saw even a slight correlation. Kind of like acorns.

      What I do find Curious is it’s often been said an animals winter coat is triggered by length of daylight hours. That I don’t agree with. Having watched them for decades, temperature definitely plays into the thickness of the coat and shedding in the spring. Similar to the cold hats and other cold techniques used for chemo patients.

      1. Only the change is triggered by daylight, but am the details are determined by the aforementioned factors.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    42 here this AM, coldest of the season, but not bad just the same.
    what a beauty of a day yesterday. I was comfortable without a jacket or sweater. I am fine with 59 or 60.

      1. My, you have excellent hearing! Great job!

        I want some action. A thunderstorm, a tropical storm, a snow squall, a 5 inch snowfall. Something. I’ll even take snow flurries at this point.

  9. Thanks,TK. Only down to 39 here. And can we please squash those close to 80 temps end of week …..pahleezzz

  13. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18E&product=ir

    Given whats gone on in the Pacific off the Mexico coastline the last several weeks and the effects of Tonga, I expect an El Nino Winter on steroids.

    Eye opening precip events in the southern US, with maybe 1 or 2 turning the corner up the east Coast.

    Excessively mild northern US

    Normal to slightly below normal snowfall in southern New England.

    I think we get clobbered once, when a moisture laden storm comes far enough north and meets up with enough cold to give a big 20-30 inch clobber.

    And then, most of the rest of the winter is mild to downright warm and snowless.

    1. Ha ha ha

      I can live with one clobber if that’s all we get.

      BUT, I bet we don’t even get that. I am NOT expecting much at all.

      Another BUMMER Winter around these parts.
      What else should I expect?

      1. I can understand that but, I do think it should be an interesting winter of storms with above avg moisture.

        I might be worried if I live in central and so California.

        Atmospheric rivers out there are already capable of wild precip amounts, imagine if they are even more moisture laden by just 1 or 2%.

  15. Not sure if I can take another mild winter. Tom seems to think this will happen. I really hope this is not the case. Last year was brutal in terms of it being such utter nothingness. And of course, as is seemingly always the case, it will be followed up by prolonged heat and humidity in summer. That’s what gets me down.

  16. Absolutely spectacular day. Been sitting out for quite a while enjoying the sound of the wind going through the dry leaves on the trees

    Lovely gentle breeze ranging from 2-8 mph and a cotton ball sky.

    1. Yes, that cannot be taken away from us. What a lovely October stretch. I do adore this month. The colors are vibrant, the air is refreshing. I feel alive.

      1. Like you, my energy level is so much larger in cooler weather. Colors here are dull but feel of fall is still there. And the fire pit is keeping me warm as the sun sets. I love love this time of year

  17. Craig Breslow will be head of baseball operations. He was a major league pitcher. Had a stint with the Red Sox. Curiously, he and his predecessor Chaim Bloom share two things in common: They both graduated from Yale. And they’re both Jewish.

  19. Right now there really isn’t a sport with as much parity as baseball, despite the lack of a true salary cap. There were plenty of teams who didn’t even make the playoffs despite massive salary payrolls, and plenty that did make it despite relatively low payrolls. Once in, it was one giant after another floored: From the Dodgers to the Braves to the Astros to the Phillies. I do like unpredictability.

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