Thursday October 26 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Our weather is going to undergo a significant change before this 5-day period ends, but it starts out with 3 more days of anomalous warmth, due to a strong ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US. Being near the northern edge of this ridge, we see lots of clouds in our sky, but as the ridge nudges northward it will help push those clouds away later today and even more so for Friday and Saturday. Those 2 days, other than the lower late October sun angle and changing foliage, will remind you a bit of summer. But “summer’s” days are numbered. As high pressure ridging weakens and starts to retreat southward, a frontal boundary held at bay will finally be able to move through the region from northwest to southeast Saturday night and Sunday, introducing the beginning of a significant cool-down. The chilly air won’t come blasting in all at once though. Sunday will still be mild in comparison to normal, just not as warm as Saturday. We’ll also see the return of cloudiness and eventually a shower chance as a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary approaches our region late in the day. Based on current timing and more reliable guidance, I think we will get through a fair amount of the day Sunday without a wet weather threat, and that most of the rainfall from this wave will occur Sunday night and the first half of Monday. Later Monday we should see a drying trend with chilly air becoming more established as the low pressure wave departs the region.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. A few fog patches in low elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, a little cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, a little cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day rain possible. Highs 60-67. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Temperatures below normal during this period. Current outlook is dry for Halloween, then watching a wave of low pressure with a precipitation chance (mainly rain but some frozen precipitation may be involved especially inland higher elevations if the coverage is great enough) around November 1, before dry weather returns with below normal temps, then a moderation. Clouds and a shower threat may return as early as the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Unsettled weather possible at the start of the period before a push of milder air and fair weather. A brief rain shower chance introduces cooler weather again before the end of the period.

70 thoughts on “Thursday October 26 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    One of the many reasons I think I love the weather is, it can be a distraction from the real world.

    I’m not saying that to discourage any comments on last night’s horrifically tragic event in Maine, but just to say that I have found it to distract me when I have needed it to.

  3. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

    We’ve already had the parade of hurricanes off the Mexican west coast to signify the atmosphere is feeling the overall effects of a healthy El Nino.

    Here’s the most recent daily CFS weekly outlook for weeks 3 and 4.

    Another El Nino signal.

    Plenty of Pacific Air across our side of the hemisphere and during week 3, a precip outlook of above avg chances in the southern US.

    2. Activity in the Eastern Pacific is slightly above normal in terms of ACE and slightly below normal in terms of the number of storms overall- the “parade of hurricanes off the Mexican coast” is something that happens virtually every year whether there is an El Nino or not.

      1. Yes, that may be.

        Its instinct I suppose on my part given 2 hurricanes in a row rapidly intensified.

        Theorizing that under good conditions aloft, that there’s more moisture and a little more heat, relatively speaking this year, in the column for these heat engines to work off of.

    1. Thanks JpDave !

      Every time I hear the name Otis, I think back to the first Superman movie with Christopher Reeve.

      There’s a scene where Lex Luthor is plotting to blow up California and his partner in crime wants to name a new county in California “Otisberg,” I think it was Ned Beatty. Funny moment in the movie.

    2. Played that song and about 25 other 10,000 Maniacs / Natalie Merchant solo tunes at work today. 🙂

    1. Just what we need, that low-life-creep now in Massachusetts!!!

      GEEZ what will happen next? They better catch that SOB!!! and SOON!!!!!

      not for nothing, but 93 comes right into Boston(@!*#*(!@)(*)(#!@*)

      2. If that was ever true, don’t we have enough resources to put some survellience on at least the major highways (95, 93 and 91) entering Mass from the north ?

        Kudos to that person, if its correct for forwarding that info.

        2. The whole situation if horrifying!!

          It is 2023, almost 2024, WHY hasn’t this dirt bag been apprehended yet? Something isn’t right.

          1. Yes, closure on either arrest or taking him down sure would be helpful in a small way.

            He had darkness and the chaos of the moment to get ahead of authorities, if his plan was to avoid capture, which as we all know, isn’t always their end game.

            1. I fear his end game is more than just avoiding capture.
              That is my worst nightmare and he may possibly be in Boston. That is a bit unnerving.

              1. Damn. Just got confirmation they do believe he is in Ma from a very credible source. Didn’t say where. OS are they saying Boston?

                1. Have not heard that, but they did say he was on 93 South. Guess where that goes.

                  Of course, he could have gone anywhere from there, including South on 495 or West on rt. 2 or one of the lesser roads like rt. 117 or something

                  Who knows.

                  They HAD BETTER apprehend him soon.

                2. I am remembering the manhunt in PA not long ago. It took days. And I am terrified you are right about him not letting this end quietly.

    1. Of course that is from MesoWest.
      ON the NWS observation site, the highest I could see at obs
      time was 78. Waiting on the next 6 hour max.

  21. It does feel summer-like. My body is protesting, but I’ve told it to be patient and wait just a few more days.

    1. Yes. Saturday’s record is indeed 81 and they may nip it. We’ll see.
      No record today. No record tomorrow. No chance.

      Actually a last min wind shift to W boosted the coastal plain. Some areas to the west were actually cooler (mid to upper 70s).

  24. Eurasia snowcover advance is very slow, more like a La Nina signature than an El Nino one. My first hypothesis: Another aspect of the HT effect. We’ll observe many of these in the months ahead.

    1. Did you get a group together to talk about HT. So far I’m not hearing a tremendous concern for it’s impact

      1. Not yet. Been tied up with work & home stuff. Mom’s at the hospital at the moment. Nothing super serious, just a persistent bloody nose and urgent care was at capacity.

  25. CNN and Im sure others are showing suspects house in what I believe is Bowdoin Maine surrounded in his home.

  26. Quick Covid question. Has anyone had experience with Molnupiravir vs paxlovid? We were told My brother is taking pax but found out tonight it is really Molnupiravir

    1. Molnupiravir is less effective than Paxlovid. Keep in mind, that’s based on averages. There may be an individualized reason they prescription molnupiravir.

      1. Thank you, Joshua. And darn. My guess is it’s either his insurance company. My advice is think hard before getting a Medicare advantage plan or more cost effective for rehab. We are not thrilled with rehab either. He fell out of his chair last night. AND they put a non covid person in the room with my brother and he now has covid.

  27. Boston registered their high of 80, 4 off the record.
    Try again (and not make it again) tomorrow.
    They have a shot Saturday because the record is lower (81).

    Meanwhile, the large area of below normal temps in the West will be shifting our way in the not-too-distant future.

  28. Robert Card is still a fugitive. He was NOT in the house that was surrounded by the police. Nightmarish situation for people in that area. He could very well do this again. Frightening.

    1. Sure is nightmarish. They are saying something is in the house. Whatever it is k pray they find him soon. Found it odd that state police discounted report that someone had seen him on 93. Unsubstantiated? Seems to me the only way if substantiating would be capture. I do know multiple law enforcement agencies took it more seriously.

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