Sunday October 29 2023 Forecast (8:24AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Summer’s over (again), and now we’re back to reality – a much cooler and unsettled weather pattern. However, well-timed dry weather is expected for Halloween. Temperatures today will be as much as 20 to 30 degrees cooler than those of yesterday, under a thickening cloud cover with eventual rain, once dry air at the surface is overcome. Today’s rainfall comes courtesy a mid to upper level disturbance bringing warmer air aloft into the region. A second disturbance joins the party Monday in the form of a wave of low pressure developing on a frontal boundary and moving east northeast through the region. The front itself may lift far enough north for areas south of I-90 to get into the warm sector before the front sags back to the south. Periodic rain can be expected through at least midday Monday, with a drying trend following later in the day and especially Monday night. Tuesday looks dry, despite any sun giving way to more clouds in advance of the next low pressure wave. But that timing of that system allows dry weather to dominate through the evening hours, but with very cool air. And then the next wave of low pressure moves by to our south and southeast very late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The trend for this system on medium range guidance has been a little to the south, with those simulations indicating the greatest chance of precipitation would be in southeastern MA and RI earlier Wednesday, with limited to no precipitation the west and north. The cold air around is marginal enough to support frozen precipitation for a period of time, but this would favor higher elevations to the north and west of Boston, so if the precipitation shield is further south and east, the odds of seeing anything frozen go way down. This is the way I’m leaning at this point in time. In either case, by Thursday we’ll be back in fair and chilly weather as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Clouding up. Periods of light rain midday on. Highs 50-57. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH except up to 15 MPH over southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, ending late. Highs 48-55. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine, late clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives South Coast late evening, up to around I-90 / I-95 overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with early-day rain most likely RI and southeastern MA then clouds may break for sun by later in the day. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Dry weather to start the period with a warming trend for temperature. Unsettled weather at times thereafter as a frontal boundary will be nearby along with variable temperatures – details to be fine-tuned over time.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Dry, cooler early period, return of unsettled weather possible later period. Low confidence forecast though with no real detail to be attempted too far in advance.

45 thoughts on “Sunday October 29 2023 Forecast (8:24AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    53 here and that was as low as it got. The cooler air was very slow to move in, however the dew point drop was noticable very quickly.

    1. 1) GFS should be changed to POS. That model is at a relative low point in performance. Once upon a time I didn’t pay attention to the GEM, now I’m trending that way with the GFS, other than just monitoring to see if they do an actual upgrade that’s not a downgrade. FWIW, the GEM is nearly equal to the ECMWF in performance after an actual upgrade. 🙂
      2) These nearly always look more impressive on simulation than the actual chance is.

      1. yes, indeed. That is why I said not that it is to be trusted.

        That being said, the Canadian is not devoid of snow chances although primarily inland and up North. The euro is virtually snowless.

    1. Thank you, JJ. I have strong memories of both as I suspect we all do. My oldest grandchild was born in 2007 so was quite young for both. It was a while before we could convince him that powe didn’t automatically go out for Halloween. In 2013, he went around the house turning of lights.

  9. Thanks, TK.
    Was out early this morning on our way to Natick and it was very cold – 53 degrees on our car thermometer. But we did catch a very pretty sunrise amongst the cloudy skies.

  12. We just got word that my brother was moved from the rehab to concord hospital. This should have happened tel days ago but the rehab dug its feet in and refused to listen. I’m praying he will get the care he needs at the hospital

      1. Thank you, Tom. I had a complete meltdown tonight and have decided it is because of all the worry that has built up the past week and now knowing he will finally be watched carefully through the night. Funny how letting it all out has you feeling better on the other side

    1. Daughter and Sil are doing a little better today, thank you.

      No on Tangerinis Farm.
      However, it seems I remember the name DeAngelis , but can’t be sure.

      1. I hope your daughter and SIL continue to improve

        Daughter and family had lunch outside on the patio in millis yesterday and said it was excellent

  16. My husband, not a fanatic regarding football but does watch it at times. I watched a little and about 60% of everything is commercials. Husband still watching game. I just walked out. Patriots, I guess usually doing their thing.

  17. Thanks TK.

    Got 1 softball game in this AM and then they called the rest of the games for the day. It poured twice during the game and was miserable. The heavier rain came through quite a bit earlier than I expected.

    Just raining lightly here now and 0.37″ in the rain gauge.

      1. They did skim by and win it 4-3.

        Glad to hear your brother was transferred. Hopefully he gets the care he needs at the hospital.

        1. Awesome. Do I remember correctly that make up game is scheduled for tomorrow.

          Thank you and I hope he gets the care he needs too.

          1. No they just cancelled the rest of the day and will determine the champion and runner up based on record, runs scored, etc for the games they actually played.

            And unfortunately they cancelled the trail of terror tonight. Annoying since it isn’t even raining anymore. Rescheduled for Friday but not sure we can go now. 🙁

  19. Thoughts on Patriots.
    1. Oline still the biggest weakness
    2. Douglas and KB are by far the best recievers the Patriots have.
    3. Injuries are all over the place with this team.
    4. Bad decision making going on
    5. Refs were very much calling bad calls many of which went in the Dolphins favor or were just bad calls. Something going rampant in the NFL. Bad Officiating.
    6. This dolphins offense is pretty much unstopable.
    7. Patriots are not able to come back from behind. The bills game they were ahead for most of it and almost blew it. They are really been behind in this game and can never get back into it.
    8. The Pats offense just does not have the ability to get chunk plays in quick short periods like the dolphins.
    9. Defense has not been able to stop the dolphins when they needed too.
    10. Patriots needed to win this game and they just didn’t

    2. I was hopeful in the beginning, but then it was all downhill.
      Mac’s pick was totally and complete DEMORALIZING!!!!
      CANNOT ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN!!! This team is DOOMED!!!!

      Not for nothing, but I saw some BRUTAL call go against the Patriots.

    3. Yikes. Kinda scary when neither of the top receivers makes the top 35 best. I agree re officiating. I did not think for a minute #7 was gloating. You could tell he knew the hit wss hard and was concerned. But that was not the only bad call.

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