Monday October 30 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

A wave of low pressure prolongs our unsettled weather today, with periods of rain. The frontal boundary that the low is riding along lifts northward far enough to get the South Coast region and possibly up to about I-90 into the “warm sector” so those areas will be mildest today before the front heads back south behind the low. The rain ends as this happens later today, and this sets us up for a dry but chilly Halloween. But another low pressure wave will be traveling along that frontal boundary. This one passes a bit further south and is likely to only clip areas from about I-95 southeastward with precipitation Wednesday morning – mainly rain, but can’t rule out some wet snowflakes or ice pellets mixing in for a brief time. This exits and sun returns before the day is over, then high pressure dominates with fair weather Thursday and Friday along with chilly air.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, ending late. Highs 48-55. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives South Coast late evening, up to around I-90 / I-95 overnight, may mix with wet snow and/or sleet briefly. Lows 33-40. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with early-day rain most likely RI and southeastern MA, may briefly be mixed with wet snow and/or sleet, then clouds thin for some sun as the day goes on. Highs 43-50. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 31-38. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Looking ahead to the weekend of November 4-5, it looks rain-free and milder. A warm front may produce clouds to start, and an approaching cold front may bring more clouds to end it. This front nearby November 6 brings a better rain shower threat and another low pressure wave and upper low may combine for more unsettled weather and below normal temps November 7 before it clears late in this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Dry, cooler early period, return of unsettled weather possible later period. Still a low confidence forecast.

45 thoughts on “Monday October 30 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    While I’m not a fan of pre 5pm sunsets, I’m looking forward to next Sunday morning, when sunrises are back to around 6:30 or so.

    This 7:15 stuff and a cloudy morning is brutal. It was still essentially dark at 7am. Can’t wake up.

    2. In Michigan sunrise is around 8:15 now, putting it in the middle of first period. (It’s the flip side of kids being able to be out riding bikes at 9:45 pm during June!)

      1. That sounds awful.

        I hope, with them knowing that this happens being most west in the eastern time zone, that they start school later to account for this.

  7. Don’t think the warm air will get any farther than the South Coast today, if it even gets there. The low is south of Long Island right now and heading eastward.

  9. Thanks, TK!

    I hope your Mom is healing. I hope everyone’s loved ones here continue to get better and find comfort.

    TK, I saw your pronouncement yesterday about the GFS.

    Much like college football, what’s your top 3 ranking of the “best” models now? What are the most reliable? Is it that simple? I believe I understand that certain models perform better for winter storms, tropical weather, etc. I also understand the greatest commandment is: “It’s meteorology, not modelology.”

    Have the GFS and European regressed in your opinion?

    Although these questions are for TK, I’d like to read others’ insights!

    Thanks!

  10. I also read here yesterday about the length of football games.

    I think I saw research somewhere a couple years ago that the number of minutes of actual “action” in an NFL game is 11 minutes out of the 60 minutes. I have been calling the NFL the NHL lately: “The National Holding League.”

    1. The 11 minutes was reported by the WSJ a few years ago, but I also believe they may have cited one example of a game where there was 8 minutes of action.

    2. Trying to understand this and make sense of it.

      The play clock is 40 seconds, so for each play, the offensive team could take up to 40 seconds to snap the ball. Meantime the main clock is winding down.

      So does this stat mean the 49 minutes out of the 60, is taken up by the quarter backs taking their sweet time having the ball snapped?? OR staying in the huddle a long time? or both?

      IF that is the case, that is an amazing stat!

      Thank you.

  13. Thanks TK
    One of our meteorologists in CT this morning was saying the GFS was right late last week of what it was showing late last week with the mid week coastal low. He went on to say GFS 1 Euro 0

    1. Well, you can pick out a run or 2 where it had a less amplified solution in comparison to the often-over-amplified Euro at that range, but it’s not really fair to limit the model performance comparison to one system on a couple runs.

      The performance scores still show the ECMWF (and Canadian) solidly ahead of the GFS. 🙂

  15. Final thoughts of the Patriots.
    1. The Patriots had a new offense being implemented, we saw how the offensive scheme went from a rather basic concept and kept increasing in complexity.
    2. Oline is a weakness. The Patriots throughout its 20 year dominance always had strong Oline and Dline that has not been the case.
    3. Douglas has been breaking out as our more typical new England slot receiver we have had during the 20 years of dominance. we have not had that since Edelman. I do not like the big slower slot receivers like JUJU/Meyers. We need that Jack Rabbit and we now have one.
    4. Major injuries have occurred at many crucial areas on the team, many of which has or will be costly. KB having a torn ACL takes away one of our top 2 receivers. We saw how the secondary of the Patriots suffered without Marcas Jones and Gonzalez when it came to going up against the speed of the Dolphins.
    5. The Patriots just can not come back from behind, the way they are build, they go down the field in 6 to 13 plays, they can’t do it in less than 6 which good teams like KC and the Dolphins can.
    6. The Patriots need to see what they have in all their receivers, TEs & QB. I been supportive of mac jones, but he never has that fire, he has never shown me the ability to come back from behind when the game has been out of our control like Brady, Mahomes, Manning did many many times. When the Patriots fall behind you could see the body language of Mac Jones change, and him being by himself on the sideline and not trying to get his team going. The people who were Judon and KB both injured now.
    7. With all the injuries on the Patriots and it taking them so long to start opening the play book on offense now towards the middle of the season, it is a long shot that the Patriots even have a winning record never the less being in the playoffs and being able to get that far.
    8. I know others on here hate Bill, but I don’t. Do I question his offensive personal decisions right now, you bet I do. I do not dislike him as a coach or a person though. I know alot of the things he does behind the scenes that you might not know about. He hates the media and I agree with him on it. The media is always trying to get a stupid story out. Media loves negative stuff.
    9. With that said I think the “GM matt groh” needs to go, and need someone that has a more offensive mind to be in that spot.
    10. The draft is tricky, in one hand, if we are in the top 10, the Patriots have the ability to draft a possible high tier QB out of the draft, would probably lead to one more year of Mac Jones and then him leaving and the new rookie taking over the second year. The other option is getting a top tier receiver. Then there is the one that everyone will hate, The patriots draft an Olineman. the weakeast part of the Patriots by far this season.

    I am not sure what the Patriots should do in the draft in the first round. They will get a QB, Reciever and Oline I just do not know what order they will go in. I do think one of the things that could be done is that Obrian and Mayo have more of a say on the offense. I put Mayo in there as I think he will be the next head coach of the patriots and will have O’Brian as the offensive play caller as a transition type situation when Bill leaves in 2 years.

    2. OH and one more thing and this is for the NFL.
      All the referees besides for 1 of the teams that seem to be doing a very good job, need to be fired, reevaluated for their eye site, and tested on the game. Prior to each game, they have their eyes tested and examined for any funny business. The officiating is horrible all over the NFL. In the Dolphins/Patriots game alone, there were many bad calls and many non-calls. The amout of illegal motions that were going on with the Dolphins is unacceptable, they don’t need that type of help with all their natural speed haha. Parker was lit up with helmet to helmet. Pass interference call in the endzone on Jackson was a joke. Just to name a few things that were bad. There was also holds that were never called on the Oline of both teams.

    1. If that stratospheric warming event happens, wonder what effect El Niño has on impacting where the cold would head towards on this side of the hemisphere ?

      1. If you look at those charts, the biggest negative temperature anomalies are over the southern North America which is typical of El Nino to begin with. But even over the northern tier of the US, there are slightly negative anomalies.

      1. Not surprising to see the incredible devastation that occurred in Acapulco with gusts like that. Nearly unprecedented to see a Cat 5 storm have a direct hit on an urban area in the Western Hemisphere with 1MM people.

        2. Re-analysis will likely show that storm was a CAT 4 at landfall, not that it makes that much difference.

          Also surprised how many of those building were largely glass.

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