Wednesday November 1 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Today, a wave of low pressure passes offshore, skirting Cape Cod and the Islands with a bit of rain early, otherwise an upper level inverted trough will create some scattered showers from late morning through afternoon. These showers will be mostly in the form of rain, but the air is marginally cold enough that some frozen precipitation may mix in with some of them. Tonight, high pressure builds in and we see clearing with ideal radiational cooling resulting in frost and for many areas the first freeze of the season. Exceptions will be the immediate shore line and normally milder urban centers. Thursday will be bright, cool, and tranquil under high pressure. This high sinks to the south Friday through the weekend with dry weather and a warming trend. Friday will be sunniest, and the weekend will feature some periods of cloudiness as a couple disturbances pass by to our north.

TODAY: Limited sun, dominant clouds. Early-day rain Cape Cod / Islands. Midday-afternoon scattered showers of rain, possibly mixed with sleet and/or wet snow. Highs 42-49. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind N under 10 MPH becoming calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Unsettled weather odds highest on November 7 & 10. Fair weather odds higher other days. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Leaning toward the greatest chance for unsettled weather during this middle portion of this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

87 thoughts on “Wednesday November 1 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  2. Thank you TK
    FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON, here in Sturbridge!! Hopefully many more to come this year.

  3. They were short lived and just enough to count on both hands and feet, but flurries nonetheless.

  11. I did receive another reply last night to my hunga questions. That leaves only one email not answered. As is the case with the other four, this individual does not think the impact is significant. This individual’s comments are in line with others but added water vapor it added was up in the stratosphere so it wouldn’t necessarily have a direct impact on the weather lower in the atmosphere.

    I have a few others I want to reach out to. TK, if you set up a discussion group, I’d be very happy to ask the folks who responded to me of they want to participate.

          1. Hahahaha. Guess who was doing the same and yelled loudly I SAW A FLAKE.

            Heck, I still watch for Santa on Christmas Eve

      1. It’s what made me ask. It looked like some sort of band but then I have absolutely no clue what ocean effect snow can look like on radar

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Josh McDaniels is a horrible head coach. It’s obvious every time you look at a game in which he’s coaching. He’s in over his head. He’ll probably never land another head coach job in the NFL, in my humble opinion.

    But he seems to be very good at being an offensive coordinator. I think he’s MUCH better than Bill O’Brien. Would BB take him back and get rid of O’Brien?

    2. its O’Brians first year with alot of issues. We have just started to see the playbook being opened up. I wouldn’t be so quick to jump ship from him

  16. All the way up to 42 here at a bit after 11AM. Not destined to go too high.

    How low will it go tonight????

  17. re: Ocean effect snow

    Here is what I found for Lake effect, but it is the same for
    ocean effect

    “Meteorologists look for a temperature difference of 23 degrees Fahrenheit or greater between the lake water and the air approximately 5,000 feet above the surface of the lakes,” according to AccuWeather Senior Snow Warning Meteorologist Brian Wimer.

    So Ocean is at 57, then it would need to be below 34
    at 5,000 feet.

    Currently we are at approx -6 C at 850 mb or approx 5,000 feet.

    -6 = 21 F

    So, technically, it certainly could be ocean effect.

    It is that cold air at 5,000 feet that is doing it.

  18. I like the fact that I will not be needing to change the clocks where I currently live. You all will be an hour behind me. I think the best thing to do is to keep it so that people have more light in the afternoon. I always hated how I would wake up to a tad bit more sunlight in the morning jut to get home for it to get dark within an hour. Rather more sunlight when I get home than when I am waking up to go to work.

    Also I think this winter is going to be very difficult to predict. Most strong El-Nino’s are not friendly when it comes to snow, but the QBO is going negative to more negative. The atmosphere hasn’t really been reacting to the Strong El-Nino. PDO will be in the process of changing etc. We saw how the Atlantic hurricane season ended up this year what is to say this winter couldn’t be similar?

  20. I haven’t had a chance to share, but I caught a break here …..

    So our dog, we knew, was nearing the end of her having good quality of life and that moment arrived yesterday morning.

    You can know its coming, but it still sucks.

    We had her for 8 years, she spent her 1st four years in Arkansas.

    Lab/hound mix, great disposition and we really loved having her for 8 years.

    Better day a bit today and I know time is the master healer. Its watching my 15 year old that is harder. I can tell she’s trying to understand loss for the first time in a way that is truly direct to her.

    She’s had loss before but was either younger or the person who died, even if related, she really wasn’t close to because she didn’t interact with them very often.

    Not in this case and gee, I did a lot with this dog, so its been a tough 24 hrs for all of us.

    I did, to try to laugh, even a little, told my wife and daughters, thats it !!!! No more dogs, cause I always get to like them too much and I’m not going through this again.

    And we’ll probably have another dog in 2 years or so, watch 🙂

    1. Oh so sad. We had our dog for 16 years and had to put him down.
      A real member of the family.

      I understand what you are going through. I am so sorry.

    2. Heartbreaking. I’m so sorry, Tom. And watching your child struggle tears even more at your heart. ❤️

  23. Tom, I’m sorry to hear about the loss of your dog. Dogs (and cats) are such great companions. They’re part of the family.

  24. A November feel to the day. The light looks different, too. We’re only 7 weeks removed from the shortest day.

  25. Hi all checking in quick in the midst of the crazy-busy-marathon-that-will-likely-last-the-rest-of-2023-if-not-longer .. haha.

    Tom, I’m sorry for your loss. It’s always so difficult, even when you do know it’s coming. Pets are family too.

    Weather, haven’t had a chance to look at much with 12z info yet, but what I did glance at doesn’t make me worry about the discussion / forecast above. Steady as she goes.

    I’ll check in again later when I can!

  26. Thanks TK.

    First snow of the season in Coventry early this afternoon and it was coming down at a decent clip for awhile though did not accumulate.

    Much more impressive snows up north in Vermont today with Okemo registering 7-8″ of new snow….

    https://imgur.com/nykOfbD

  28. I forgot to note, we recorded our first frozen precipitation of the season today here in Woburn, a shower of rain mixed with sleet.

  29. Dropped grandaughter at the barn for her lesson. It’s in the always colder area of Sutton and has a 665 elevation. Wind was strong and steady. Wished I’d brought my kestrel. Daughter was picking up and I suspect my granddaughter will take a day or two to thaw

    1. Tom, let me add my condolences. We had a dear cat for over 20 years, and the loss was very sad even though we could see her declining and were prepared for the event. My heart is with your family.

    1. The fall/Halloween decorations started coming down last night before Halloween was even over. I’m sure we will be not too far behind you!

          1. Ohhhhhh. I love it. We don’t have that many trees. Just four but decorations throughout. I’m doing the mantle tomorrow and then the rest will take days..maybe a few weeks. I’d absolutely love to see your decorations.

              1. No they are all inside. We always get a real one for the family room, the rest are artificial. There is a full size different themed tree in pretty much every room downstairs, another one on the landing at the top of the stairs and two medium sized ones in the foyer on the landings above the front door. Then there are 4 miniature ones as well.

          2. Actually since it’s late and not many come to whw late , I hope TK doesn’t mind a question. May I assume you have at least some artificial trees? If so, what brand do you like. My Balsam Hill main tree is five years old and I’m half thinking the lights may not work. I may have to look for a new one

            1. They are all different kinds/brands of trees but her favorite is National Tree Company. I think you can get them right off of Amazon.

  36. Tom:

    Sending you and your family my sympathy on the passing of your beloved pup.

    Hang in there, buddy.

  40. Thanks Captain and Jean.

    As expected, it is cold this morning !

    Sitting in car for 1st time this year to wait for the heat to warm up and melt the decent frost on the front window.

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