Friday November 3 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

High pressure to our south continues to provide generally fair weather, but now that it’s to the south, a frontal boundary to our north will get closer to the region. The “bad” news is limited as this only means more cloudiness at times today (mostly early) and more so during this weekend, but the good news is we’ll see dry weather and a modest warm-up during this time. We continue mild on Monday and the timing of the next trough, low, and frontal system seems slow enough that we get through that day rain-free, then see an episode or two of rain showers later at night and/or Tuesday from a west-to-east moving system with low pressure passing to our north.

TODAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Considerably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

My outlook in this period is somewhat different than medium range guidance shows at this point. Leaning toward the next system being shunted to the south about November 9 and a different low approaching our region at the end of the period after generally dry, chilly weather. Details to work out…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Best shot of unsettled weather early in the period. Generally dry otherwise. Temperatures near to below normal.

39 thoughts on “Friday November 3 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  9. Thanks, TK!

    27 degrees yesterday morning; 29 this morning.

    Last very dark commute for awhile.

    My Spanish word for the day in my classroom is “escarcha” (frost)!

      1. Now, will my kiddos remember that word for Monday morning’s bellringer is another story!!!!!! ¡Jajajajajaja! 🙂

      1. My students’ favorite word, too, Dave!
        It’s the only word they remember come final exam time! 🙂

  11. Thank you, TK. Low of 30 overnight. Frost here was still thick when I surfaced around 9:00 yesterday. It was gone when I surfaced same time today.

  13. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

    2 thoughts …..

    the arctic north of Alaska is a mess !! And I’m not surprised its forecast to be way above avg temp. The Barrow cam shows some near land slush has appeared in the ocean only in the last day or 2. That, I believe, is insanely late for the ice to return.

    By the way, Hudson Bay is a similar mess. It shouldn’t have ice yet, but most SST anomaly graphs show the central and southern part of it running well above average on temp.

    Anyhow, recurring theme I have seen is for most of the country to be above average temp wise the 2nd half of November.

    Frankly, btwn the arctic and Hudson Bay temps being above avg or being low on sea ice, I don’t know where sustained cold air is going to come from, unless it forms in Siberia and crossed the pole.

      2. Really like that pulsing look to the anomolies for El Nino, which, I believe is an accurate portrayal of how the ocean behaves.

      1. HOW are we ever to get any SNOW this WINTER?
        ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

        2. That is far from the soul determining factor on how much snow falls in one area. 🙂

          I still think the biggest snow enemy this coming winter May be dry weather and not warmth.

            1. Maybe, maybe not.

              I’m in the minority leaning this way.

              Some of the best forecasters in the business are not in my camp. And this is also not my final word either, although I’m getting close…

              1. Wellllllllllllllllll. I recall a summer years ago when you and Sue and Tom and I met for a munchie in Marshfield and you said it would be a snowy December. And guess what. It was.

                So if you’d like to say it will be a snowier winter than anticipated, I am all in.

  14. FWIW, GFS continues to be virtually useless. Use with extreme caution, or better yet ignore it UFN.

    It had the “right idea” with the system passing more OTS 2 days ago, but I think it was right for the wrong reason.

    I’m getting tired of saying I really hope they fix that thing soon. Nobody’s looking for perfection. It’s impossible. But I’d love to see a model that can compete with the Canadian & European.

    1. It’s really just focused on the typical impacts, which is good, because that’s a great starting point.

      A lot of media chatter on El Nino over the years has been misleading.

      “Oh no! El Nino! Gloom & doom!” etc etc.

      So this article explains the basics nicely.

      That leaves us with the other indices to consider, and the BIG wildcard: HT Effect.

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