DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
As we reach the middle of November, we’re going to be in a chilly weather pattern dominated by an air flow out of Canada, but also a mainly dry one. A southwesterly air flow aloft keeps us under a blanket of clouds much of today, but a clearing trend will begin later and may set-up a nice sunset at least for some parts of the region. High pressure builds in for the weekend, with upper level high pressure to our west and a trough to our northeast. This set-up is dry but with below normal temperatures, with the colder of the two weekend days being Sunday. For Saturday, outdoor Veterans Day parades and ceremonies will take place with dry, chilly conditions – temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s depending on time of event. A northwest flow continues into early next week with a disturbance bringing our only precipitation threat of the 5-day period late Monday to very early Tuesday – some rain and snow showers, but nothing that looks significant as it will be a fast-moving system with dry air around.
TODAY: Considerably cloudy – some limited sun. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Clouds increase. A late day rain shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 33-40. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
High pressure brings dry weather November 15-16 with a moderating temperature trend. High pressure shifts offshore and a low pressure trough approaches and moves in from the west with mild weather but a better rain chance November 17-18, timing details to be worked out. Dry, colder at the end of the period as a progressive pattern allows the system to move out to the east.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Generally west to east flow pattern, and mostly dry weather but one trough will likely pass by at some point with some unsettled weather. Too early to determine how close to the Thanksgiving Holiday (November 23) this will be. Temperatures variable but averaging near to above normal.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks, TK.
Thank you, TK!
Thanks TK
Thanks TK !
This day in weather history goes back to 1987. I was only 3 so I don’t remember this snowstorm. For November quite the snowstorm.
https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1722962310321570204
Don’t remember this at all. One would think that I would.
I don’t like the sounds of that at my age!
Thank you, JJ. I don’t remember it either which surprises me
NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
My snowfall predictions. The majority of this will fall in period between late January and early March. If we get something big before then consider it a bonus.
Boston 25.8
Providence 28.1
Hartford 33.4
Worcester 39.7
Concord 43.8
Copied to my list and added to the table. Thank you, JJ
Ocean temp off of the coast of Boston is at 54
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44013
Just a wee bit TOO WARM and the weather will be turning
warmer. In short, we are doomed!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_7d0.png
GFS runs with this highlighted area by the NHC
Euro, I feel, does hint at disturbed weather in this climatologically favored area, but doesn’t really have it getting its act together.
GFS evolution of it
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2023111012&fh=186&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Euro has showers/storms south of Dominican Republic briefly
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2023111012&fh=174&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK.
Firesky sunset coming up for at least parts of the WHW forecast area in the 4PM hour. Be ready!
Cape Cod / immediate South Coast may be shut out of this, but many other areas should see at least some color, and possibly a spectacular illumination.
We had a cotton candy sky
https://imgur.com/a/HUFxEJJ
Looks like there may be another volcanic eruption in Iceland, close to the Keflavik international airport. The country has experienced many mini earthquakes in the last 24 hours. These often presage an eruption. https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1723091787898581494
It should be noted that Iceland experiences a lot of volcanic eruptions.
Update on my mobile weather laboratory:
Yesterday started out in Gettysburg . Temperature was 61. Radar showed a line of showers to the southwest with an orientation from northeast to southwest. Coincidentally that was the direction of the day’s travels.
We went through 4 states……Penn., Maryland, West Virginia, and Tennessee.
Met up with the rain in Hagerstown. The temp decided to chase the dewpoint and settled in at 55.
Stayed that way until mid Virginia. Rain ended and sky mostly cloudy. Within 5 minutes, the temperature went to 65, then a few minutes more to 75….topping out at 82. And at that point we were at altitude in the mountains. Shouldn’t it drop with altitude?
Got to Kingsport, Tennessee at about 745pm.
Temperature was still up there at 72.
This morning it was 48, windy, and raining.
So when I referred to this as my mobile laboratory, I think I was right.
TK always says that weather is never boring to him. Even with no snow, the changes that can take place in a relatively short time and space period amazes me.
Interestingly, we are now in Atoka, Tennessee.
Skies partly cloudy and temperature 61…same as yesterday’s beginning.
Who ever said weather was boring?
I say it’s exciting and mysterious.
Further updates next week when we start the 2nd leg of the journey to Texas
Love this. Thank you for posting
Looking forward to it!
JimmyJames. I’m thinking of you today on your uncle’s angel day. Hugs ❤️
Thanks, TK.
The Icelandic eruption Joshua mentioned earlier
https://x.com/ajwxman/status/1723140079806263629?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A
New wx post…