Tuesday November 14 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)

26 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

A disturbance brought the first measurable snow of the season to some locations in the WHW forecast area last evening, a coating to just under 1 inch of snowfall mainly in higher elevations of Worcester County being about the extent of it. Elsewhere, a few snow and rain showers occurred, with some areas seeing nothing at all, especially further southeast as the activity diminished and dissipated on the way there. The system is now offshore and will move away today. Other than one more passing sprinkle or flurry this morning in a few locations and maybe an ocean-effect shower episode on Outer Cape Cod around midday we’ll have a dry, cool day with lots of clouds giving way to more sun with time. High pressure builds in tonight and will be with us during the midweek period, gradually shifting eastward and offshore by Thursday. Some high cloud patches will be with us at times on Wednesday as warmer air starts to move in, first aloft. We won’t notice it too much at the surface with only a modest warm-up Wednesday, but we will on Thursday when it turns noticeably milder. The warm-up will continue into Friday but that day will feature more cloudiness as we have both an approaching trough from the west and increased moisture ahead of low pressure to our south. This is likely to lead to a period of wet weather focused on later Friday evening until midday Saturday, lasting longest in eastern areas which will be closer to an at-least partial phasing of the trough from the west and the low pressure from the south. The latter will be intensifying as it passes by early Saturday, and eventually will pull dry air in behind it, with a drier finish to the day. Expect gusty winds with this system, especially in eastern areas and particularly near the coast. A few more details on wind and rain are to be determined, which I will do in the next few updates. But for now plan on a wet start to the weekend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds to start, more sun to finish. A passing light sprinkle or flurry possible until midday and a few rain showers possible Outer Cape Cod until early afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible in eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely late evening and overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Much of this period is likely to feature dry weather and near to below normal temperatures, with one system to pass by around the day before Thanksgiving with slightly milder weather and a chance of some rain. Details TBD and elaboration to come in future blog posts.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Medium range indications are for a mainly dry and somewhat seasonable though variable temperature regime for Thanksgiving Weekend. Precipitation chances may increase early the following week with a trough moving in, but that is low confidence this far out.

26 thoughts on “Tuesday November 14 2023 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    We have a comcast outage in my area this morning.
    Have to connect with my cell phone. At least I am able
    to do so. 🙂

    NOTHING here last night. Anything that approached dried up.
    I never saw anything falling, although I could have missed
    a sprinkle or snow flake or 2. 🙂

    1. My 4G mobile network is delivering 42 mbs internet
      connection. Not my usual service, but good enough to get
      the job done. 🙂

      My phone is NOT 5G capable as it is 6 years old. 🙂

  4. Thanks TK. Yeah I didn’t see anything and agree it basically got eaten away as it came closer. Saw a few .5-.8 in Central Mass. Holden looked like it was good spot. I am sure Retrac was getting in the mood.

  5. TK – as you probably know the Plymouth Thanksgiving parade is on Saturday. This event is rain or shine and I am just curious as to how heavy the rain will be from the 8-12 timeframe on Saturday morning.

    1. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111400&fh=108&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Most current GFS has rain in Plymouth til 8am or just a bit later

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023111400&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Euro brings it in as lighter rain, but later.

      This far out, understandable timing differences.

      I’d hedge that models are underestimating jet stream and this will trend a little faster. Don’t know about more offshore.

      Probably need til Thursday to be more confident.

    1. That’s a great photo. I really like the looks of the device that it’s plugged into on the other end – like something out of Young Frankenstein.

      1. Hmmm works for me. If you scroll down you don’t see pics?

        I spent 2 hours with apple today and 1.5 on my own trying to fix the mess the new software update made of my iPad. So am curious to know what you do see. Before it jump out a window.

        In all fairness, I’ve never had trouble with a software update and the techs are great. But it wasn’t how I planned to spend my day.

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