Thursday November 16 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

An area of high pressure to our south provides a fair and milder day today. The high shifts eastward Friday as low pressure off the Atlantic Coast starts to move northward at the same time a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. The trough from the west also drives low pressure north of our region with a cold front to swing through the region during Saturday, while the low from the south tracks north northeast and passes offshore. We get a warmer Friday with clouds increasing then some wet weather in the region Friday night into Saturday from an interaction of the cold front and offshore low. But it does look like the heaviest rain associated with the storm passing by will stay offshore or just clip Cape Cod for a brief time. Later Saturday through Sunday, as low pressure intensifies in the Gulf of Maine and heads into the Maritime Provinces of Canada, we’ll see dry, colder weather with a gusty breeze here. High pressure in east central Canada and low pressure still impacting the Canadian Maritimes will funnel chilly air but keep it dry here into early next week as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Cloudy overnight with an increasing rain chance. Areas of fog develop. Lows 50-57. Wind becoming variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with rain likely I-95 belt eastward and a good chance of showers elsewhere. Mostly cloudy with a few lingering rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 50-57 occurring in the morning, then cooling into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially eastern coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

High pressure to the north hangs on with fair, cool weather November 21. A progressive low pressure area and frontal system will pass through on November 22 with unsettled weather, mainly rain, but may start as snow/mix in some areas early. Fair weather returns for Thanksgiving Day into the extended holiday weekend with seasonable temperatures for the holiday then a colder trend.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Some temperature moderation expected in the last several days of the month, with a period of wet weather possible around November 27-28 as another trough moves through from the west.

46 thoughts on “Thursday November 16 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  3. 6Z GFS for the day before Thanksgiving

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111606&fh=153&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023111606&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023111606&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Rather large difference near the coast, indicating very wet snow.

    Here is the ratio

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=ratioku&rh=2023111606&fh=153&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Notice near the coast the ratio is like 4 to 1. That is CEMENT falling.

    OF course NONE of this will happen as this is the GFS and there is ZERO support from the Euro and the CMC. 🙂 : ) 🙂

    It’s just getting to be that time of year.

  4. In the for what it is worth dept., Uncle Pete says
    50 inches for Boston and 70 inches for Worcester this Winter.

    He said something about all of the smoke in CANADA would contribute to keeping us cooler this Winter?????

    Sure it will. 50 inches for Boston? Right and I’m Santa Claus!!!!

    1. AND you should not! BUT even TK said it could start as snow/sleet in some locations, which leads me to believe
      that “something” may be up. Not a major snow event, but
      perhaps “some” whiteness before a changeover.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Moving out of radar range, but that is quite the system off the Florida coastline.

    I think Miami ended up over 4 inches of rain, at least and there was a 4 hr period where the hourly totals were around .75, .75, .75 and then 1+ plus.

      1. Significant rainfall totals have been measured over the previous
        24 hours, with many areas across South Florida observing 5 to 8
        inches of rainfall (isolated 8 to 10 inches).

        First sentence in forecast discussion from Miami NWS this morning.

      1. We have Wednesday off. We had a half day on that Wednesday up until a couple of years ago. Most students and some staff did not show up, so the district decided to give everyone the full day off.

        1. Awesome ! Enjoy !!

          I wouldn’t mind if we did the same.

          Close to running on fumes with parent teacher conference tonight and Tuesday night.

        2. Awesome for all to have the day. And smart. I admit to being guilty of keeping kids home the Wednesday before. I loved to have them cook with me.

  14. 12Z GFS has Backed of on the SNE snow and moved less snow farther North, which makes more sense given the set up. 🙂

    1. I have noticed with this set-up the GFS does too much south, too cold. It’s still pretty broken.

        1. Ahhhh your memory is a whole lot better than mine. Very nice. Thank you. I see it was a Wednesday. I had to have been in Boston for class. I would think I’d have remembered .

          Makes me smile now thinking of Belmont.

        2. Do you recall whether it impacted the trolleys. I would have taken those to Harvard square and the subway into Boston

          1. The trolleys were on tires then ( nottracks) and were stuck on the hills both sides of Cushing sq. The 2007 storm kicked off a quick 6” of heavy snow mid day. Same results.

            1. Thanks I can only assume I was home before the worst or I’d remember it clearly. 2007? November or December?

    2. Did some more reading on the storm ,JJ. I do love these. Nothing triggered my memory. If I’d been impacted, I would have remembered. I had to have managed to get home before the worst.

      As always thank you. Tons of fun.

  19. I could see the Cowboys moving on from Mike McCarthy if they fall short of an NFC Championship. I don’t know Belichick would want to work for an owner like Jerry Jones who is a control freak.

    1. Makes sense. I hope you find the best coach for your team. I don’t know if you listen to Bobby Bones or even know the name. I’m a big fan of him and his show and many on the show are huge fans of the cowboys

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