Friday November 17 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Some areas of dense fog are around to start today due to increased moisture from off the ocean to the south. Some limited visibility has resulted, slowing travel especially in areas south of I-90 so use caution if traveling early today. This is also a signal for a rather warm November day ahead, not record shattering by any stretch, but a 60+ day for most of the region ahead of an approaching trough. This trough will drive a cold front through here tomorrow that will put an end to the mild party. It now appears that the bulk of the rain shield from a coastal / ocean storm will stay offshore, but still can clip parts of far southeastern MA during the morning Saturday. Otherwise, just look for rain showers pushing through with the cold front mainly during the first half of Saturday before we see a drying trend quickly set in, and a clearing/colder trend to follow as the cold front moves offshore. This will set us up for a breezy, chilly, but bright day on Sunday. Similar weather continues Monday with high pressure to our northwest. This high will settle across the region Monday night, which will be a cold one, and a very chilly start to Tuesday with bright sun. The sun fades later Tuesday as the next trough and developing low pressure area approaches from the west, and may spread its precipitation into our region as early as Tuesday night. Will work on that timing – system can be a touch slower too.

TODAY: Areas of fog into mid morning, otherwise sun limited by clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20 MPH or higher are possible.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Rain showers arrive west to east overnight. Chance of steadier rain toward dawn mainly Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy through early afternoon with rain showers ending from west to east during midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57 occurring in the morning, then cooling into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially eastern coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-28. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Progressive trough and low pressure / frontal system swings through the region on November 22 with rain, followed by drying later in the day. Thanksgiving Day looks dry, breezy, and seasonable with a gusty west wind. Remainder of Thanksgiving Weekend looks dry and on the chilly side, but not extreme. More details to come on the holiday weekend in upcoming posts.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Watch for a precipitation threat early period, probably rain, then a dry stretch to follow that with a shot of colder air before some moderation.

54 thoughts on “Friday November 17 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made it to 61 here yesterday. How high will it go today?
    Currently 49 and rising rapidly. Can you say 65 or 66?

  6. The 6Z GFS is at it again for next Wednesday!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111706&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111706&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023111706&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023111706&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Once again, HUGE difference between coast and inland due
    to boundary layer issues.

    Here is the snow ratio for the times above

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=ratioku&rh=2023111706&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=ratioku&rh=2023111706&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    If it is coming down as snow and not a mix, that is almost like liquid cement. INSANE!

    Before the wind shifts, I think that would be mostly rain or mix
    despite what the 10:1 shows.

    Anywho as depicted, a pretty intense early season event to say the least.

    Now we KNOW it AIN’T Happening because:

    1. This is the GFS
    2. No support from the EURO
    3. No support from the CMC
    4. No support from Mr. TK

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Still fun to look at. Cheers

      1. Well, IF there were support from you, it would have appeared in the discussion above and since it was not there, then
        the only logical conclusion was that you did NOT agree
        with the GFS or anything remotely resembling it. 🙂

        Still, pretty cool to see it out there, even if it is TRASH. 🙂

  7. Kirbet, I responded to your post at the end of yesterday’s blog. Thank you. Very nice to see a new name here…. Especially someone from a town I love. I’m curious about the 2007 storm you mentioned. I remember a 6ish hour commute from Watertown to Framingham for mac in December on St Lucia day I think. We had thunder snow with that one.

    1. IIRC a low pressure bombed in the Gulf Stream off the outer cape and threw some very high winds at the cape and a few hours of heavy snow in the Boston area around mid day basically shutting the city down. I believe it was a surprise to most. Around 6″” of snow I think.

    1. Also very nice to see you here more often Hadi.

      And do you see my post last night. I won’t repeat here. Gives me the heebie jeeibiez

  10. A few thoughts on the upcoming forecast.

    1. It’s a good thing I don’t trust the GFS much, because that 12z run is absolutely insane. the 00z Euro however, is not that far off, and did at least start the precipitation as some snow across southern NH. It develops the secondary low a little slower and a little farther north. With that in mind, in all the forecasts for this area that I sent out early this morning (including Metro Boston), I did mention that rain could start as snow Tuesday night.

    2. One thing that could support the GFS is the MJO. One of my co-workers sent me (and a few others) an email this morning that said the following:

    “The MJO is currently entering phase 1 and is forecast to move through 1 into phase 2 during the next 10 days before moving into the circle at the tail end of the month. These 2 phases usually bring below normal heights and colder than normal temperatures to nearly all of the nation during November. I noticed the mean maps show a relaxation of the amplitude as we get to Dec. 1, might be seeing the MJO entering the circle. Might be some wild weather during the next 10 days.”

    3. No matter which model you choose, it’s looking rather chilly once we get to Thanksgiving and for the rest of the month. Not 1989 chilly, but not exactly mild.

      2. The last 12 days of November, 1989 averaged 8.5 degrees below normal at Logan. The last week of November, 2023 might get close to that, but unless the GFS is right, I don’t see a 29 high at Logan on Thanksgiving like we had in 1989.

  12. The 12Z GFS is weaker and Farther South and more off shore

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023111712&fh=123&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023111712&fh=123&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111712&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Mostly RAIN
    24 hour Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023111712&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Just a WEE bit of a difference from the 6Z run.

    Is this a SIGN of WINTER SUPPRESSION of systems this
    Winter?

    Or just the GFS being the GFS?

    2. Its a sign that the models are beyond atrocious.

      Even if this is correct, than how awful does that make the last 2-3 days of runs on this system ????

      BRUTAL !!

  13. Thanks, TK!

    The fog this morning was thick as peanut butter this morning! (Yukon Cornelius, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer).

    Seriously, there was a fatal in Fall River on Rt. 24. Not sure if it was caused by the fog or not.

    2. A storm on Thanksgiving Day dropped widespread 4-8″ with a few heavier totals across southeastern Massachusetts.

      East Wareham was the jackpot with 12″, New Bedford and Rochester both had 10″.

      A few other selected spots, from towns I recall being mentioned on here:

      Middleboro – 8.5″
      Taunton – 8″
      Coventry, CT – 7.3″
      Northbridge – 6″
      Reading – 6″
      Lowell – 6″
      Blue Hill – 5.5″
      Logan – 4.4″
      Nashua, NH – 3.5″
      Jamaica Plain – 3″

      2. I remember the storm very well. The Woburn/Winchester Thanksgiving Day game was postponed and played 2 days later on Saturday (Woburn winning on the road).

  16. Now for something completely different …

    Sweet Sounds of Heaven, Stones’ latest gospel/soul/rock/blues song (all 7 plus minutes of it), is remarkable for many reasons, not least of which is that it was written this year by two elderly gentlemen who’ve been doing this for more than 60 years! Try to imagine that. Surely, the Rolling Stones should be the poster child for an anti-ageism campaign. Keith Richards looks better today than he did 50 years ago. Granted, he was strung out on heroin then. But the fact that he survived and will outlive us all is incredible. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt3ISLkIS38

  19. Boston’s normal precipitation to date for November is nearly 2 inches and they have yet to reach 1/4 inch. DRY pattern.

  21. We did end up recently getting all the work done on the house, including having a much larger deck built on the back of the house.

    It just finished yesterday, the railings and the stairs to the yard.

    So, we’re sitting out on the deck tonight on this extremely warm November night. This will be it for me unless it gets this warm again, but my wife will come out in the cold and I’ve even seen her sit out in a small shoveled area with a lot of snow just a few feet away.

  22. If you showed me the 06z, 12z, 18z, and 00z runs from the GFS (the last 4 consecutive operational runs), and I didn’t know they were consecutive, I’d think they were from 4 different weeks. I’ve never seen 4 runs in a row be that different.

    Poor GFS. It’s so broken.

  23. From NWS Boston: “One thing to note, while the 00Z run of the GFS depicts the trough reloading over our region on Thanksgiving it was discounted for now as it is an outlier even among the other GEFS members.”

      1. I can’t stress how pathetic that model is. I really, at this point, have zero understanding of why they can’t fix it by at the very least going back to the version before the update (I won’t call it an upgrade, because it was clearly a big step backward).

        I’m baffled, Dave.

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