Sunday November 19 2023 Forecast (7:55AM)

37 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Here’s your 5-day outlook leading up to and including Thanksgiving Day. There are no significant changes to the discussion posted yesterday. Today’s weather will be bright, breezy (after a somewhat calm start), and chilly. Some clouds move in later and a light shower of rain and higher elevation snow is possible as a cold front crosses the region during this evening. Reinforcing cold air arrives tonight and hangs around through Tuesday, with dry weather. High pressure located to the west allows Monday to be quite breezy before it builds closer and shuts the wind down Monday night and Tuesday. Progressive low pressure moves into the Northeast Wednesday via the eastern Great Lakes and as the primary center heads for the St. Lawrence Valley, a secondary low center will quickly organize near the Delmarva and move across southern New England during the day before heading out quickly through the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday evening. This system’s impact will be felt as precipitation arriving as mainly rain late Tuesday night except a period of snow over interior areas, especially higher elevations, before mainly rain through midday Wednesday, then quick drying thereafter. Look for another windy period as dry, chilly air moves in behind the system for later Wednesday through the Thanksgiving holiday itself. While it’s not likely to be a very cold Thanksgiving, a more seasonable chill and a gusty breeze will still call for dressing for the weather if you’re traveling or going to a run or football game. More details to come as we get closer to that day.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower of rain and/or snow possible in the evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevation. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Clearing afternoon west to east but some additional clouds southern NH and northern MA. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Quick breakdown of Thanksgiving Weekend (Friday 11/24 through Sunday 11-26) indicates additional low pressure areas passing south of the region around Friday and another moving into the region to the west and south of New England Sunday, with weak high pressure between the 2. This pattern should be generally dry but may feature a fan of clouds across the sky both Friday, a sunnier Saturday, and a cloudier Sunday, but not high confidence. Early the follow week, watch for a rain chance Monday 11/27, dry Tuesday 11/28.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Pattern looks mainly dry and on the chilly side of normal to end November and start December.

37 thoughts on “Sunday November 19 2023 Forecast (7:55AM)”

  1. good morning and Thank you TK.

    31 as a low temp here.

    Very slowly coasting towards Winter. Will we get there? Time will tell.

      1. Every individual I have spoken to while helping to find a facility for my brother immediately knew it was UHC that was forcing him out of rehab. I didn’t have to say a word.

  10. The High Seas forecast is a regular product.

    The version for the Tropical Atlantic is issued by NHC. The issue for the rest of the Atlantic is issued by NWS Sterling (DC).

    I used to read these daily when I did shipping weather forecasts at my private sector job.

    The link posted above is not referring to any special warning. It’s just today’s version of this few-times-a-day product.

    1. Makes sense that it is not unusual. I have just never seen it as I have no need to so pirates sailing the high seas came to mind. I am sure a close friend of Mac’s parents from Charleston who captained a SeaLand container ship saw it often. His wife is the person I’ve mentioned here often. When folks would say a system was just going out to sea, she’d say….hey, my husband is out there

  11. UPDATE:
    We are now in Missouri City, Texas. Temperature 66 under partly cloudy skies.
    Last week was very exciting weather wise in Aroka, Tennessee. JPDave would have thought he was in weather heaven…….NOT!
    Every day was the same. Mid 40’s overnight and mid to upper 60’s during the day under clear to partly sunny skies. No rain..no snow..no sleet..no graupel. A JPDave nightmare.

    The next couple of days will get warmer to the upper 70’s before a Thanksgiving cool down.

    Paid 255/gallon for gas in Tennessee and saw a sign for 219/gallon outside of Houston Friday evening. Hope it’s dropping back in WHW land.

    Next update next week as we start the journey back north.
    Hoping to take the mountain route. Might need some help from TK for weather guidance.

    Happy Thanksgiving to you all.

    1. What fun. Thank you for posting your adventure. I look forward to the next. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

    2. I make it into a post. I guess my feelings are strong about the weather. 🙂

      Happy you are having an awesome trip!

  12. 12Z Euro has Next system start as some frozen before going to RAIN

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023111912&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023111912&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023111912&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023111912&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  14. Roselyn Carter passed today. Amazing woman. Amazing team. I believe she has been In palliative hospice care for a while.

    1. Sorry. Did not mean to misspell Rosalynn. And I am incorrect. Jimmy has been in hospice care for a while. Rosalynn was diagnosed with dementia a while ago.

      They have given so much of themselves to others.

  17. Re: The High Seas & Pirates.

    Somewhere way in the past on our family tree is a Pirate of the North Atlantic named Jean Galante. I never met him. 😉

    1. Soooooooo cool. I want a pirate in my history. Mac had Robert the bruce. But not the same. Shhhh don’t tell him that

  18. I’ve got all my puzzle pieces. I have written about half of my winter outlook and the rest will be written in the next couple days after which it will be presented here.

Comments are closed.