Monday November 20 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

It’s a holiday week and there are a lot of plans dependent on the weather. For the most part, I don’t see weather being a big factor in most plans. High pressure to our northwest delivers a chilly northerly breeze but fair weather today. The high moves over the region tonight and it will be a clear, cold one. Tuesday, as the high starts to give way to approaching low pressure, high clouds will fan across the sky, limiting and dimming the sun often, but they may struggle to thicken as they battle dry air up there at first. Eventually, they win the battle and it turns overcast in the evening. Low pressure will make a run from the eastern Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday but quickly redevelop in the Delmarva region and track across southern New England. This brings wet weather to our region with the bulk of the precipitation from this system falling in the first 12 hours of Wednesday and in the form of rain, but the first several hours of the precipitation will probably fall as at least mix and probably snow in the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA where some accumulation is likely – currently thinking a solid coating to 2 inches. Any accumulation will wash away / melt away during the day Wednesday. Drier air arrives later Wednesday with breaking clouds and eventual clearing, first to the west, lastly near the coast. The delivery of cold air behind that system is not particularly strong, so while Thanksgiving Day is likely to be breezy and cool, outside of a gusty breeze it won’t be that bad for outdoor activities (morning races, football games).

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevations with a coating to as much as 2 inches possible in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA by dawn. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Breaking clouds in the afternoon from west to east. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 44-51. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

The balance of Thanksgiving Weekend looks dry as low pressure is kept south of the region and high pressure holds its control. Low pressure does move through bringing a chance of rain (maybe brief higher elevation mix) on November 27 before another period of dry weather follows that into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Overall pattern continues to look on the dry and chilly side heading from the final day of November through the first few days of December. There may be a quick moving trough / low to contend with somewhere early to mid period.

60 thoughts on “Monday November 20 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

          1. somehow, someway, being near solar max is another variable, however big or small, that affects what will happen this winter.

  6. Speaking of this Winter….

    FYI

    Harvey Leonard and crew will be on channel 5 today at
    4PM to deliver the all important Winter forecast.

    1. ha ha ha
      REMEMBER that is the GFS you are talking about there.
      that and 5 bucks will get you a cup of coffee!

      Good luck with that as much as I would LOVE to see that happen. 🙂

  12. Non weather question. Does anyone here have experience with a 3D printer. My 11 year old granddaughter would like one but I don’t know a thing about them and wonder if I can even find one in the vicinity of $150-175. Thank you for any input you have

  13. Vicki, thank you for the hearty laugh Joe Bastardi’s tweet above provided me.

    I don’t know who, Joe Bastardi or the GFS, is more unbelievable.

    I’m glad I read that after my students left the classroom.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    This has been one of the brightest, sunniest and most beautiful Novembers I’ve ever experienced. Remarkable.

  15. hmmm the SNOW keeps getting closer with the NAM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023112012&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023112012&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera SNOW

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023112012&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    3KM NAM Kuchera SNOW

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023112012&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    RFFS Kuchera SNOW

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023112006&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  17. Vicki:

    I asked our Milab teacher about 3D printers.

    This is what

    This is what he sent me:

    https://www.amazon.com/Official-Creality-V2-Full-Metal-Pre-Installed/dp/B08BL41ZMY/ref=sr_1_11?crid=3H1QW8DF1OAY6&keywords=3d+printer&qid=1700498016&sprefix=3d%2Caps%2C88&sr=8-11&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.18ed3cb5-28d5-4975-8bc7-93deae8f9840

    https://www.amazon.com/Official-Creality-Cardboard-Less-Tangle-Dimensional/dp/B0C6H1RHWV/ref=sr_1_17_sspa?crid=23TZMJPS5FD0R&keywords=3d%2Bprinter%2Bfilament&qid=1700498262&sprefix=3d%2Bprinter%2Caps%2C150&sr=8-17-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9tdGY&th=1

    2. My son bought an older version of this printer several years ago. He’s used it a lot and is very happy with it.

      They sure simplified the assembly. When my son got his, it was a bunch of very small parts – but he enjoys that kind of thing!

  18. He wrote me:

    This is a decent starter printer because it has an auto leveling bed, I added some filament too.

  20. Today is noteworthy, though I have not checked the 2pm Logan ob, for having remained below 40F.

    Also, one of the lower dp days.

    I could call this a low end winter airmass today.

    1. Look at that.

      Well, there is this chilly airmass, but in retreat.

      The truth is probably more northwest than that, but maybe not by a ton.

  22. The GFS extended does indeed show some pre-Christmas snow, but that’s also fairly normal. Yesterday’s run (today’s isn’t available yet), goes through 00z on Christmas Eve. The 7-day snowfall on the Ensemble mean ending 00z 12/24 is a general 3-4″ across the region. That’s over 7 days leading up to Christmas Eve. This is not exactly a rare event around here.

    1. I’ve noticed the medium range guidance coming away from the idea of any real unsettled weather this weekend.

      That would be good. We have an outdoor event Saturday PM in Woburn and then I’m off to ORH for TSO!

  23. Chilly day! I just finished my last day of work for this month (yay!) and after work I took my mom to cemetery to visit my oldest brother’s grave as today would be his 69th birthday. After we got back one of my other brothers came with his handy leaf vacuum and we finish off the last of the leaves for the year. Easy job but chilling!

    Everything was down and cleaned up early this year compared to many recent years .. I’d say about 1 week ahead of last year.

    So glancing at the latest info, no changes to my discussion / forecast. Still thinking we stay dry from Thursday through Sunday and rain for a while next Monday.

    I’ve been watching the guidance jump all over the place (not just the GFS though that’s been worst of all by far) and I have been hesitant to buy many of the solutions they presented.

    A.M.E. method. That’s why I haven’t changed my forecast the last few days, so I’m going to go with it still.

    1. Wanna come shake the pear trees lining my street. They are still holding to about 80 percent of their leaves….conservatively. I was hoping they’d fall with the wind this week.

      1. I bet they all go in a 12 to 18 hour period starting after tonight. Otherwise I might have to shake them for you. 😉

  24. SClarke I just saw your comment re 3D printer. Thank you also. My daughter asked me to thank you both VERY much. I’m assuming you need a PC / Apple to operate the printer too.

    1. My son uses a CAD program to create the models. Then he copies the appropriate file from his PC to a small SD and inserts that into the printer.

      There might be other ways to do it with the latest version.

  25. I know folks here know better, and I haven’t been paying all that much attention to amateur sites of late, but I have gotten a couple text messages today asking about the “storm on Thanksgiving Day”, and through some questions I have determined that there is at least one amateur site (not sure which one) trying to wishcast a storm of snow on Thanksgiving Day, when in fact it’s going to be dry, and breezy, with highs in the middle 40s to near 50.

    If anybody gets asked about that phantom storm, remind them to avoid such sources of info and stick with real ones. 🙂

  26. Thanks TK. Vicki, the pear tree in our yard is always the last to go. Usually the last week of November or first week of December. It has picked up its pace of dropping them over the past few days.

    1. Me neighbor used to have a big pear tree that I remember having leaves on it in early December when I was a kid. Looked weird to me. 🙂

      1. These are ornamental pear trees. I just figured that out. And they do hold leaves later. They are also young. Our trees in general were a bit late compared to a few other years here. Uxbridge daughters are about the same. And the majority that turned went to an ugly burnt orange and then immediately fell off.

  27. I have a Norwegian Maple that doesn’t drop until early
    December. It’s the craziest thing to see. It just turned a beautiful yellow.

    Thanks TK.

  28. “Ocean heat waves “ I like this saying & it’s the first time I’ve heard it . A lot of head scratching with Harvey’s winter forecast & they had a Couple of new players around the round table . Judah thinking 36 for Boston

    3. I’m not a fan of the term. It skews the definition of “heatwave”. They could use a better term for warm temp spikes in ocean water, in my scientific opinion.

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