Tuesday November 21 2023 Forecast (6:46AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

As we head through Thanksgiving Week, there are no significant changes to the forecast discussion idea you’ve been reading during the last few days. We’ve only got one storm to deal with during this 5-day period, and while it will have some impact on pre-holiday travel, we could most certainly have seen something worse than what we are going to see. First, we start today with a cold and fairly calm morning under an area of high pressure. As the high retreats to the northeast and a low pressure area heads from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes, we’ll see increasing high clouds during the day, first battling some dry air aloft, and eventually winning the battle and blotting out the sun to end the day. We’ll see a redevelopment of this low around New Jersey by the early hours of Wednesday, and then during the day the low will move northeastward and cut right across southeastern New England. Precipitation with this system will arrive by mid to late evening today from west to east, starting as snow over interior locations mainly north of I-90, where some accumulation is likely before it turns to rain overnight. Elsewhere, other than a brief start as wet snow or mixed snow and rain, we’re looking at a rain event. The bulk of the rain will occur Wednesday morning, tapering off to just patchy drizzle by around midday. Low pressure heads offshore during the afternoon but we likely stay under its cloud canopy through sunset, so I’m not expecting any sun to appear. Wednesday evening though, a clearing trend commences, along with much drier air on a gusty north to northwest wind. Thanksgiving Day looks dry with a sun/cloud mix and a gusty breeze from the northwest, shifting to the west and diminishing gradually during the day. For morning outdoor activities such as runs, football games, and local / regional travel, we can expect early morning low temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s, rising through the 40s with a northwesterly wind 10-20 MPH and some higher gusts. As we head from midday through afternoon, the wind will become westerly and gradually slacken as we see a sun/cloud mix and temps peaking around 50 for the region in general (range upper 40s to lower 50s) for highs). Previously, I had mentioned additional storminess staying to our south late this week (into Thanksgiving Weekend). In fact, I don’t even think the energy down there will do much to form a storm system as it slides harmlessly well south of our region, while we see dry weather and colder air coming out of Canada with a colder trend through Saturday…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives overnight but may start as snow over interior higher elevations with a coating to as much as 2 inches possible in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before dawn before changing to rain. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Cloudy remainder of day with patchy drizzle early afternoon. Highs 48-55 occurring in the morning, mildest in southeastern MA / RI. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day. A brief period of wind gusts over 30 MPH inland and 40 MPH at the coast in the late afternoon / early evening.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and gradually diminishing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind W shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Low pressure approaches November 26 with clouds moving in. Rain, may start as mix, that night and into November 27 before a clearing trend follows. Dry weather November 28, seasonably chilly. Passing trough and frontal system with briefly milder air and a rain shower threat November 29. Dry, windy, colder weather to wrap up the month on November 30.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Large scale pattern features a northwest flow with colder, mostly dry weather in the early days of December.

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52 thoughts on “Tuesday November 21 2023 Forecast (6:46AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Best we could do here was 25 earlier this morning. Still, good enough for coldest of the season.

    1. TK was going to arrange to shake the rest of the leaves from our trees…..maybe he missed 😉

      Seriously, I’ll have to get my kestrel out except if it’s pouring, I am not sure how that will work. Time to call kestrel support

  8. Just curious where the coastal plain ends and where inland starts. I am in Natick and assume we are inland but is this different from interior. I think we miss the snow in the interior and the heavier winds on the coast tomorrow. Does this make sense? Trying to put off cleaning my gutters unto all leaves are down but temps still kind of mild.

    1. The extent of the coastal plain is variable depending on when the relatively flat topography transitions to notable landforms (hills, mountains). In some places you literally have almost no coastal plain if hills and mountains abut the sea. In most areas, there’s some extent of flatland. New England is variable, in eastern MA the coastal plain is generally 1/2 to several miles, depending on where you are. And even that is not automatically define weather boundaries in such a concrete way. A guideline, yes, but not a solid “rule”, so to speak. You have to take into account all factors, and changes.

      You can probably get away with waiting until all leaves are down.

      It’s not like where snow falls it’s going to stick around anyway. A couple inches in Fitchburg, for example, will still melt away by the end of Wednesday. We’re not in a situation where snowcover is about to show up and hang around. Not yet. 🙂

  10. Whether its correct or not, I don’t know.

    I am surprised by the number of decent cold airmasses projected to be headed our way.

    I was impressed by yesterday’s cold too.

    I guess, with El Nino, and it is only 1 piece, but I already take notice that the mild part of the northern US traditionally associated with El Nino isn’t dominant early this cold season.

    1. AO slightly negative / PV is loose. That’s one reason.
      El Nino regions 3 & 4 are warming while 1 & 2 are cooling. That’s another reason.
      MJO is in moderate strength phase 1. That’s another reason still.
      Recent uptick in snowcover over the border. Yet another. 🙂
      HT Effect is another potential reason (still much to learn on that one).

  12. Did anyone see Harvey’s Winter Forecast.
    He had 3 experts on and no one really gave a prediction.
    Dr. Cohen mentioned 36 inches for Boston and that it would not
    come in small chunks. (But never said that was his prediction) Frankly, I was very disappointed in the whole presentation.
    But I guess I expect too much.
    And they NEVER mentioned HUNGA TONGA at all like it never
    happened. POOR!

    1. I was kind of thinking that but I wasn’t really going to say anything. But since you commented I’ll say that I really didn’t get anything out of that outlook. I haven’t for the last few years.

    3. Basically they said there has never been a winter like this one that will have certain things in place & with that they really are not quite sure exactly at this point how it will go down , honest forcast I thought

    1. On my radar scope, most of that precip is being
      depicted as sleet or mix.

      It is 42 here, so I really don’t expect any frozen. Just not cold enough. Looks like any snow will limited to higher elevations.
      Would not surprise me to see snow/mix at 1,000 foot high
      Worcester airport at the outset.

      2Pm OBS at Worcester
      35 with dew point of 21. That sure smells like Snow/mix at outset. We shall see.

      https://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/KORH.xml

      1. OOPS that was the NOON time obs. I don’t know why they
        are so damn SLOW with the reporting!@)*#(*!@)(#*)(!@*#)(*!@)(#*)(!@*!)

  19. 39 here, dp 27

    IF the column is cool enough to start, we could briefly see some frozen here.

    925 and 850 and 700 mb temps ALL appear to be plenty cold enough, so it will be just an issue of the boundary layer and with the dew points where they are I smell a brief period of SNOW, even in Boston. Let’s see HOW wrong I am. 🙂

  20. Having a small chance to look over the models, the northeast appears susceptible to a snow opportunity after Thanksgiving into early December.

    Seems a general 500 mb ridge in the southwest and trof in the northeast.

    Could just end up bring cooler/colder than average and dry.

    But, if that’s the overall pattern, these models can’t snuff out a decent clipper or disturbance out of Canada rounding that trof from this far out.

  28. 1/4 inch and they are treating out road.

    Loving this as I sit in the dark listening to Silvard’s Calling Upon Angels Christmas piano

  29. Wow, nice coating there! Nothing but a cold rain here. If there were flakes earlier when it started, I missed it.

  30. I just posted the Winter 2023-2024 outlook as a regular post. I’ll also post it on its own page in a short while so it can be reference from the tabs, like the snowfall contest. I’ll add my #’s to the contest today (which is the deadline – get your guesses in!).

    While you go look at the winter outlook and I warn you, it’s long. I’ll be writing the daily blog and will post that before 9:00.

    By the way, I am sure there are typos on that winter outlook. Feel free to point any out. I have a proof-reader who will go through it for me in a while and anything there will get fixed. That outlook was written over several days at all hours of day and night. 😉

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