Wednesday November 22 2023 Forecast (8:23AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Some folks saw snow last night, pretty much where expected, and some accumulation occurred even further south and east than I had forecast. Mostly coatings to around 1 inch occurred over interior MA and southern NH, with 2-4 inches in the highest elevations of north central MA and southern NH. Some of those areas will hold on to slushy snow cover today, despite the rain that has occurred since. Where less snow fell, it’s all gone but a little slush early today, and will completely vanish during the day. Low pressure cutting across southeastern New England is bringing us wet and breezy weather, with most of the remaining rain to fall through midday. After that, it’s a drying trend with continued gusty winds as the low strengthens while moving offshore and away. The clearing won’t really take place until tonight. The remainder of the outlook is essentially unchanged, with a fair, breezy, cool (but not too cold) Thanksgiving Day, then a cold front swinging through on Friday with a few clouds, otherwise fair weather and a gusty breeze. The balance of the weekend will feature dry, less windy, but cold weather Saturday, and clouds moving in both at high levels from the west and south ahead of the next storm system, as well as lower clouds coming in from the ocean as we see the wind turn southeasterly. Wet weather is expected to hold off until Sunday night, but at day 5 there’s still some uncertainty on timing, so catch future updates…

TODAY: Overcast with rain likely through midday. Cloudy remainder of day with patchy drizzle early afternoon. Highs 48-55 occurring in the morning, mildest in southeastern MA / RI. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable for a while, then N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts later in the day. A brief period of wind gusts over 30 MPH inland and 40 MPH at the coast in the late afternoon / early evening.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and gradually diminishing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind W shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N-NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind NE shifting to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Wet start November 27 as low pressure passes through. Frontal system may bring a few rain showers November 29, and another a few rain or snow showers to start December, otherwise the pattern trend is drier and chilly as we head through the final days of November to the beginning of December.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Large scale pattern features a northwest flow with colder, mostly dry weather in the early days of December.

46 thoughts on “Wednesday November 22 2023 Forecast (8:23AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    OUTSTANDING Winter Forecast discussion. Thank you for all the effort you put into that. Disappointed in your conclusions, but I guess that is how you see it. You back up your conclusions and that is all we can ask for. I just wish it showed more promise, but in any case MUCH better than last year. 🙂

  4. Two nights ago, we had a low of 18 deg. Last night we had 3″ of glop. Our ornamental pear tree still holds almost all of its leaves in green, yellow, and orange!

    1. The ornamental pears line a lot of our neighborhood and they still hold theirs. Not pretty colors this year though 🙁

  7. No flakes that I could see last evening. Temp hovered around 40. Boundary layer just too warm here. Oh well, I thought that there might be a chance, but it was not in the cards.

  9. Happy baking day to all. Pajama day too 🙂

    We had low of 33 with just a tick under 1” of snow last night. There was just enough for Seven year old Rilyn Mac to roll a snowball about a foot wide this morning

    3. Reminds me of an old joke which I will amend as to NOT appear
      racist in any way.

      So this country announced that they were planning an exploratory expedition to the SUN. When scientists reminded
      the official that the space ship would burn up as it approached the SUN, the official responded: “That won’t be a problem as we are going at Night”.

    1. YES, at least according to my Radar Scope precipitation depiction display, it is SNOW and coming down in buckets!!! Over into
      New Brunswick as well.

      North of Calais and Lincoln and Northward and Northeastward.

    2. Looks like a GOAT to me! I sure she had fun and that’s all that counts.

      At least you had “some” snow. NOT so here. 🙂

    1. I was 4 years old on that day and was watching some TV show when it was interrupted with the news. I didn’t understand what the words meant, perhaps they used the word “assassinated.” But, I knew from the tone that it was important and ran to the kitchen to my mother. I repeated the words that I had heard. I still remember her reaction.

      1. That gave me chills. And tears. It is a feeling that just never goes away.

        I was in English class. Our teacher left the room for a few minutes. She was clearly upset when she returned. Walking home from school two linemen were saying the president had been shot. When I walked in the back door, my mom was crying.

        This documentary today reminds me of how much was happening during his time in office. I didn’t really understand a lot at the time because I was young. I remember hiding under our desks in school. I remember watching Bert the Turtle. I remember the teacher rolling a tv into our room as we watched on the Cuban missile crisis.

  18. Thanks TK and great job with the winter outlook!

    Hoping that southern stream is a bit more active than you expect and we can couple that with the blocking to get a few good coastal storms this winter.

  21. I am running out of time for my snow predictions so here we go:

    Boston: 58.4″
    Worcester: 84.7″
    Providence: 41.2″
    Hartford: 63.3″
    Concord: 72.9″

    I am basing this off a couple factors:

    1. Strong El Nino will bring an active southern jet and spawn good size coastal storms off the southeast US coast.
    2. Blocking will continue to be more prevalent this winter. This will provide periods of cold and help steer coastal storms to the south and east of us, keeping us on the “white” side. I’m hopeful the blocking wont be that strong where the storms pummel the mid atlantic and miss us altogether (a la 2009-2010)
    3. Seasonal weather models (specifically the Euro and UKMET) are supporting blocking, active southern jet, and above normal precipitation and snow along the eastern US seaboard (I will post charts from Ben Noll below)
    4. I believe the combination of the above will result in at least a couple large coastal storms this season unlike what we have seen the past 3 winters. I will go a step further and say that one of these storms alone will produce snow totals that exceed Joshua’s snow prediction for the entire winter 🙂
    5. It only takes a few large snowstorms to really inflate the seasonal snow total even when there are periods during the winter that are rather dry (or wet) and devoid of snow

    Gas up the snowblowers and wax the shovels!!

  22. Latest snowfall predictions. Did I miss anyone? Did I mistype? Please don’t hesitate to let me know.

    TK gave us till today. (Shhhhhhhhh. Please don’t tell him but if you are a few days late, I know the person who is keeper of the numbers 😉 )

    https://imgur.com/a/uyNHe95

    Did anyone see Eric’s? Or any other Mets? I’m happy to add them also if you post them.

    2. With no significant snow expected in the coming days, people who may not have had a chance to get them in can sneak them in. I’ve given till the end of November 30 before, so we can use that week + a few days cushion, just to make sure everyone who wants in gets in. 🙂

  23. I fixed a series of typos and not-so-great wordings on the winter forecast post, so it should read even more clearly now.

    Thanks Jules for doing the proofread!

Comments are closed.